1/10/20

Reese Kaplan -- Maybe Selling High Isn't A Bad Idea


Tough times sometimes call for tough measures.  There has been a lot of correspondence of late about the value that Brandon Nimmo brings to the team and how difficult he would be to replace.  He's an adequate fielder, a "meh" thrower but does provide great OBP and significant power.  His smile has endeared him to fans who were weary of the Lucas Duda types who mostly delivered on the field but looked as if the game was more challenge than playtime.  

Sometimes people get enamored with someone with a particular aspect of their game.  Earlier this week there were lots of rumblings when the club chose to DFA Sam Hagerty as they needed the roster spot for Rick Porcello.  He could run.  

Last year Brodie Van Wagenen made some highly questionable personnel decisions and I won't reiterate them right now as some of you may be trying to digest your morning coffee.  One of the shining lights was the acquisition of good hit/no field/no run Houston Astro J.D. Davis.  He turned in one of the finest rookie seasons we've seen, well, this side of Pete Alonso.  Many people have him earmarked to start the season in left field with Brandon in the middle and Michael Conforto in right.  


If I'm a Mets' pitcher, that outfield alignment would have me going to Costco or Sam's Club for a 55 gallon drum of antacid.  What they may help you win with their bats they may indeed give back (and then some) with their less-than-outstanding defensive efforts.  JDD has the label "Born to be a DH" written all over him but you could see the outrage forming if the Mets actually moved in that direction. Therein lies the rub.  Do you keep a player around that helps make the GM who found him look good at the expense of what happens as balls sail over his head and fall between he and the average centerfielder alongside him?  


There is an old saying to "sell high" when the opportunity presents itself.  Perhaps it's time for the Mets to consider that advice.  If you moved JDD back to an AL team where he could play a less challenging position such as 1B or DH, then he could likely be a more beneficial player overall.  

In return, off a season that saw him provide a .307 batting average to go along with 22 HRs and 57 RBIs in 453 ABs, there should be plenty of interested parties.  Those are some mighty gaudy numbers and could likely reinforce your farm team or help address a more prominent need such as future catcher for the period beyond Wilson Ramos or pitchers beyond those folks hitting free agency.  

Of course, the other way of looking at it is to pencil him into the Mets' future and let Yoenis Cespedes play out the end of his very expensive contract.  

In the past the Mets have soured early on various players who showed potential, including Greg Jefferies, Jeff Kent and others.  There's a huge risk to make this kind of move.  However, the reward might outweigh the risk.  For all we know the minor leaguers we gave up to get Davis might exceed him.  For now he's the kingpin and on top of the world.  

Rather than just riding on that positive first full season, maybe instead it's time to try to leverage the investment.  

8 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Always dilemmas!

I would certainly only sell high on Davis, if at all. Unless Cespedes is in “WOW” mode where it would be foolish to not play him most games, you can keep him, keep him away from incentive thresholds, and either keep or trade him come July. Spring training holds the key.

Reese Kaplan said...

Florida Spring Training is frought with boars and bores.

Dallas said...

Few thoughts, sounds like the DH in the NL is inevitable. As much as I would not like to see that it seems to benefit the current Mets roster with the likes of Cano, Davis, and Smith currently projected to be on your roster for at least 4 years.

I just looked at his Minor League info. He played virtually no OF. I couldnt find anything saying he played any in college either. You would think there would be some potential for improvement here with some work and coaching based on how little he played. Frankly you would hope the Mets had him focused on this during the current break.

If you buy into WAR Davis hit pretty well last year but had only 1.0 bWAR (2.4fWAR) in 410 AB's. bWAR does not like him very much and fWAR seems to like him a lot more. How sustainable was his 2nd half offense? What is his ceiling? If he improves a little on defense and continues his 2nd half surge then he is very valuable to the Mets now. If his defense is maxed out and you believe bWAR and his hitting regresses then he is more expendable. If the analytics team thinks they can really bolster the future club or existing one I'm certainly open to the idea. I just don't want the Mets to move any of these young controllable talented guys to clear salary. You don't move Dom Smith or Davis to just clear Jed Lowries salary, get talent back. On that note trading Lowrie now in general is just stupid as he is literally at his lowest value. At the minimum get him into games in Spring Training and start building his value back up as its hard to see it going down from where it is now.

Mack Ade said...

Every successful outfield starts with a 5-tool center fielder.

I will hang up now and listen.

Tom Brennan said...

Dallas, I agree - Davis probably had zero expectation of being an outfielder - ever - and his bat forced him into a crash course. He is not fast, but not as slow as Alonso (Davis is 31 of 40 in career steals, majors and minors) and has a very strong arm, no reason with a lot of Alonso-like off-season work that he couldn't come back in 2020 as a close to average defensive outfielder.

Davis hit a ton at Citifield - .354/.413/.665 vs. Alonso home stats of .218/.335/.553, a huge difference, so I want that lethal Davis hometown bat around for 2020 in Citifield, a place where most Mets hitters DON'T hit well.

Eddie from Corona said...

If the DH comes to the NL it should be cano until we buy him out and then that’s Pete Alonso’s home until he is no longer a met

Unknown said...

We should trade JDD for that throw away player the Mets traded named Kelenik.

Jules Greenstein said...

There is no reason why an athlete with JD's eye-hand coordination can't learn to be a better fielder. I would devote the coming season to improving Davis at 3B and the OF. Even now, he is far and away the best Mets pinch hitter. Why the rush?