Tons of ZiPS - wikipedia
Hitter ZiPS were commented upon by me in an article a few days ago. Zip over to it and read it if you missed it!
Today, I critique Mets' pitcher ZiPS, starting with the Mets' Big Cheese, whose name starts with a small d:
Jake deGrom: ZiPS has Jake at just 12-6, 2.88 over 29 starts in 2020.
I think with the seemingly improved pen for 2020, 15-7, 2.60 is more like it for me. I'd sure like to see him thrust up out of the unsatisfying 11-12 win range.
Noah Syndergaard: ZiPS at 11-7, 3.33. Same rationale about the pen, and I sense he is ready to break out, too. Ditto on my Jake projection of 15-7, but with a higher 2.90 ERA due to his problem holding runners on.
Marcus Stroman: ZiPS 11-9, 3.72.
Me? I'd put him at 13-8, 3.60. He is a fighter (lifetime, 6-6 vs. the very tough to pitch to Yanks (just ask Rick Porcello how tough - he'll tell ya), despite Stroman pitching for a weaker Jays team), so I think he can do better than ZiPS' 11-9, again with help from an improved pen.
Rick Porcello: ZiPS? 12-12, 4.29.
Me? I think that the ERA is about right, but he is a proven winner, so he will do what he needs to in order to turn a few otherwise lost starts into wins and end up at 14-10, IMO.
Michael Wacha: ZiPS? 6-7, 4.42. Seems like a reasonable guess to me.
Steve Matz: ZiPS got our Stevie Wonder at 9-9, 4.11.
Nah, I say, he was 6-4, 3.52 in the second half last year, so I can't be that negative. I put him at 11-8, 3.90 in 2020.
Walker Lockett: ZiPS amazingly has him at 6-7, 4.55. That should excite John from Albany. Me? I don't expect a lot from the Lockett Rocket after his 1-1, 8.34 in 23 innings in the majors last year.
But heck, ZiPS has fringy Chris Flexen targeted for 2020 at 6-6, 4.41, virtually the same as Wacha. Go figure. I can't.
Drew Gagnon? A generous 6-7, 4.64. Ervin Santana? 6-7, 4.64, also. Santana must have given an apple to the teacher. Steve Gonsalves? 7-8, 4.57. Jeesh!
Drew Gagnon? A generous 6-7, 4.64. Ervin Santana? 6-7, 4.64, also. Santana must have given an apple to the teacher. Steve Gonsalves? 7-8, 4.57. Jeesh!
Tylor Megill, though? Zipping along at 6-7, 4.64, 75 Ks in 66 IP. How about that one?
Seems like someone other than me has good thoughts about Mr. Megill, who only had one start as high as AA last year. I doubt he'll see ZiPS' 66 projected big league innings in 2020 - but I think Megill will thrill in 2020.
He is, interestingly, ranked better than Corey Oswalt and Mickey Jannis (both ZiPPED at 6-8, with ERAs slightly over 5.00), just as a point of comparison for all the Megill naysayers.
Worst ZiPS ERA for all Mets pitchers listed? Harol Gonzalez at 5.89, due in large part to a Baltimore Orioles-like projection of 24 homers allowed in just 123 IP.
Is it just me, or does ZiPs overall seem to over-estimate these fringe dudes (Lockett et al) and under-estimate veterans?
David Peterson?
Here's a surprise, too. They have him at 6-5, 4.04, which happens to be BETTER than Steve Matz. And that, after he was just 3-6, 4.19 in AA last year. Sure seems overly optimistic.
Dellin Betances:
His would be one of the most interesting ZiPS to see, but the Mets' 2020 ZiPS were just done, but the Yankees ZiPS? Not yet done, and Betances isn't yet added to the Mets' ZiPS.
If he is healthy, though? See Edwin Diaz below for what I hope is a comparable.
Edwin Diaz: ZiPS? 5-3, 2.98. 105 Ks in 67 IP. I'll sure take that major upgrade over 2019 - will you?
Jeurys Familia: ZiPS: 4-3, 3.66. If Diaz and Familia do as ZiPS projects, we will be awfully happy in Queens in 2020.
Justin Wilson: ZiPS at 4-3, 3.50, while (surprise, surprise) Daniel Zamora is at 2-2, 3.57, with 52 Ks in 47 IP. Wilson sounds about right. Zamora? I'd VERY gladly take that from him - it seems somewhat too positive.
Brad Brach? 4-4, 3.74. I'll sure take it. So would Brad.
Seth Lugo: 6-3, 3.15 in 75 innings. Solid, and I think those are good projections for this fine pitcher.
Robert Gsellman: 3-3, 4.02 in 62 games. Seems a bit generous, based on his tepid results since 2016.
There were a bunch of other fringe-level relievers, the best of which, ERA-wise, was Donnie Hart at 3.98. Interestingly, add the non-top bullpen arms all together (Tim Peterson, Paul Sewald, Tyler Bashlor, Ryley Gilliam, Corey Taylor, Adonis Uceta, Matt Blackham, Ryder Ryan, Steve Nogosek, etc.) and collectively, their projected ZiPS 2020 ERAs are better than what the Mets' entire pen produced in 2019, so those have to be taken, it seems, with a grain of salt.
That a lot of Zippity Do Dah, huh?
What's your take, folks?
5 comments:
Diaz and Familia had combined ERAs of a ghastly 5.65 last season, over 132 outings spanning 118 IP.
Imagine if combined they drop to 3.50 over the same # of innings? That alone would reduce earned runs by 28 and would be huge for the Mets in 2020.
I have never spent one nano-second looking at ZIPS numbers.
This is fantasy baseball at its worst.
Mack zaps ZiPS. I guess my two articles (hitters and today the pitchers) caused me to come to the exactly the same conclusion.
Whether it's pitchers or hitters, ZIPS and other projection systems are inevitably pessimistic. Still, it's no better or worse than what we do with our friends guessing how players will perform after ingesting adult beverages of choice.
ZiPS has been around since the 1920s.
Before the 1927 season, they projected that Babe Ruth would have 25 HRs and 85 RBIs.
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