1/24/20

Reese Kaplan -- There's a Future Beyond 2020



While everyone is getting either pumped for the potential of a competitive 2020 run towards the post-season or already disenchanted by the whole “we didn’t know he was cheating in Houston” Carlos Beltran fiasco, the fact remains the baseball season is just about upon us and no one knows how it’s going to unfold.  

Throw in the whole Steve Cohen purchasing storyline and this often unremarkable team that struggles for a newsworthy identity is almost ripe with too many of them.


While a great many folks are laser-focused on the upcoming season, the general manager should be looking down the road a bit as there are players entering what could be their final year before hitting the free agent bidding war.  Marcus Stroman is a good example of someone who would likely be playing for that next contract (not that he can’t scrape by on the mere $12 million per year).  

He’s likely eyeballing the AAV of $23.6 million for the next five turns of the calendar.  Wheeler is a career 44-38 pitcher with a 3.77 ERA.  By contrast, Stroman is younger, healthier and has a 51-47, 3.76 stat line.  Methinks he’s looking to double his contract.


Now as a point of comparison, take a look at the resume of one Noah Syndergaard, still under Mets control for both 2020 and 2021.  He is 47-30 with a 3.31 ERA, a better WHIP and a more lethal strikeout pitcher.  He’s had some health issues for sure, but there’s an almost cartoonish intimidation factor when the big man takes the mound. 

If you’re Brodie Van Wagenen, shouldn’t you be considering not just what you need to win in 2020 but in 2021 and beyond?  Towards that end would you consider trying to lock up childhood Mets fan Marcus Stroman or Met fan favorite Noah Syndergaard?  Both would help now and in the future, but if the club is truly seeking to improve, sometimes you have to think about the sacrifices you need to make in order to improve down the road.

Towards that end, for all of the rumors you’ve heard about Noah Syndergaard possibly being on the trading block for the right price, it would seem to me the man to peddle to another team would be free-agent-to-be Marcus Stroman.  That team would get a full season of the man seeking to drive up his price and the return for him should be commendable (if not awesome).  

Syndergaard is more like when the Mets acquired Stroman last year.  You gave up some goods because he wasn’t merely a short season rental, but a legitimate player for the following year as well.  The return for Syndergaard in trade would be greater, but then you run the risk of missing out on both of them if Stroman wants to test the bidding during the next off-season.


The Mets are in a somewhat similar situation with the hitter who wears catching gear, Wilson Ramos.  They are paying a fair price for his services -- $10 million per year – and even hold an option for a third year.  However, Noah Syndergaard and others were whispering about their disdain for the big man behind the plate.  

Even if you are content to get 130 plus games out of him this year, what happens in 2021?  I hear a great many folks talking about the need for a backup catcher who barely hits above the Mendoza line (and who would be in there every day should Ramos suffer another injury).  A lot of folks are banking on Francisco Alvarez to be the catcher of the future, but the portly 18 year old is still in rookie ball.

Perhaps the better move for the Mets to make now is to try to lure another club to sacrifice its AA or AAA top catching prospect as part of a trade.  Whether the Mets use one of the aforementioned pitchers, Dominic Smith or some other resources to execute such a deal, it would give them that backup to Ramos now and in the future. 

There are other players who may not be a part of the club going forward, too, including Justin Wilson, Jed Lowrie and Yoenis Cespedes.  What are the plans for replacing these resources?  Building a winning ballclub is not just a single season effort. 

6 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

One thing's for sure - all the pieces that are currently on the roster? There will be some real movement over the coming months to realign. When and how to optimize that is the key.

John From Albany said...

I agree Reese. The Mets don't plan long term enough. Especially, if they trade more prospects for Marte like reports suggest. I would stop trading prospects and try to extend Stroman and Thor.

Bob W. said...

Good to see a Steve Cohen mention. A lot of this team's dysfunction (if not all of it) starts with the name Wilpon. Hopefully, Fred and Jeff don't screw up the deal by trying to hold on to control. I honestly believe they have to sell, though. They are too deep in debt and need $800 million for the Islanders/Belmont Park project.

Tom Brennan said...

Bob W., we all fervently hope for the Wilpons to cede control ASAP

Mack Ade said...

1. I extend Thor thru the yrs Jake is signed.

2. Ditto Strman and Conforto

3. I start sending flowers to the homes of George Springer and J.T. Realmuto

bill metsiac said...

With our young core of talent worth keeping, we will still have a budget regardless of who the owner is. Yes, it may be higher under Cohen, but it still won't be unlimited.

Do we want to keep Pete, Squirrel, Nimmo, Thor, 4to, Stroman, Diaz (if he has a strong '20) and others, or do we put our eggs in one basket by giving long-term, high $$$ deals to Realmuto, Springer or other FAs.

Barring regression by our kids this season, I'd rather spend to extend as many of them as possible. And not see them reach FA and walk like Wheeler.