Morning.
First… a general statement. The Mets are playing erratic baseball which could elevate them into a top ten pick in the next draft.
My initial posts regarding the 2021 draft were targets, by me, that the Mets would pick around 20th. That looks like it possibly isn’t going to happen.
So, I have to start writing about some prospects that are currently being projected to go in the 1.10-1.30 range. In addition, I need to change my mind for their second pick (1.40-1.60 range) and a top 100 pick for the 3rd round.
So… first up… here are two guys that you might hear called out when the Mets pick in the first round:
Colton Cowser
OF 20/yrs. 6-3 180 Sam Houston
Cowser has very quietly come off of a .361/.450/.602 slash in his freshman year. Scouts say he has much physical projection left. Plays ++ defense in both right and center, but projects to right in the pros.
Downside is lack of power. Has to control his hansy swing and work on his strength.
LHH. Played well for Team USA between his freshman and sophomore season.
2020 limied stat line: 14-G, 55-AB, .255/.379/.364, 1-HR
Mack observation -
Cowser will definitely come off the board in the first 100 picks, but I don’t see him as a first rounder. First, an outfielder with no pop is not a popular choice these days. Like it or not, this has become a home run game. And second, he was off to a miserable start this year which also puts up another red flag.
Me? I pass here.
Tyree Reed
OF 17/yrs. 6-2 180 America Canyon HS (CA)
Reed is a defensive first centerfielder that is projected to remain in that position. Has 70 speed (6.69 60) and knows how to run the show out there. Big arm strength.
Projectable power to come. Has loud tools and projects well. LHH. Slight open stance with fast hands.
Prep Baseball named him the number one junior in the country before he entered his senior year.
Mack Observation -
In a normal season, I would think that Reed would be a shoe-in for a mid-to-late first round pick, but this isn’t a normal year and I’m not going high school in the first three rounds… and you know how much I love high school picks.
Still, I would gladly pick Reed in the 4th round.
Tyler Thornton
RHP 6-4 185 20/yrs. Arizona State
Thornton transferred from St. Mary’s
His fastball is now 91-04 with projection to grow. ++ change-up with ‘distinct tumble’. Also has a very effective curve.
2020 limited stats: 4-starts, 2-0, 3.38, 1.13, 24-IP, 25-K
Thornton was the 2019 National Freshman Of The Year.
Mack observation:
Thornton came into the 2020 season needing innings to rise his draft position. The COVID virus took that away.
I see him as a very effective addition as a back end starter. He has dominated throughout his high school and St. Mary’s days and a team should do everything they can to see this guy pitch again before the next draft.
I have him as a potential 2nd round pick and a solid 3rd.
Brock Selvidge
LHP 6-3 205 Hamilton HS (AZ)
The top prep prospect from Arizona.
Projected to continue to fill out frame. Fastball touches 94, with rise. Possesses a swing and miss slider plus a quality change. Above average command. Simple turn and throw delivery. Hides ball well. A strike thrower.
Mack observation:
Brock isn’t currently projected as a first round prospect. I look for him to go somewhere in the third to fifth round, to a team that would be willing to go over slot to sign him.
I will continue to stress my desires to go college in this draft’s first three rounds. I would consider him past that.
Trenton Denholm
RHP 21/yrs. 5-11 190 UC Irvine
Denholm is a command first starter whose fastball only hits in the 90-91 range. Commands all his secondary pitches as well. Simply put, Trenton throws strikes.
His height is definitely a disadvantage; however, he still is projected to be picked in the first 100 picks.
He needed a full 2020 to elevate into a sure early pick. He didn’t get it.
2021: 4-starts, 2-2, 2.28, 23.2-IP, 25-K, .148-b/ave.
Mack observation -
Simply put, I don’t like short starters. I didn’t like Marcus Stroman when he was drafted. I like the 6-4 guys.
5-11 control pitchers usually wind up in the pen. I don’t draft pen pitchers until day 3 of the draft.
If he is still around then, I will consider him.
6 comments:
Mack, I don’t think the Mets need outfielders early, infielders early, or catchers early, they need pitchers, early and late; especially those that face the first base line when they wind up. Give me two top lefties and a righty and then do whatever you want.
I agree with Gus here. This team needs pitching - the pendulum has swung.
That said, if a player with extreme promise in an area of need were available, like catcher, I would have to consider him heavily.
Mack, why collegian emphasis early on? Is it that so many sat out the 2020 draft?
Pitchers with control are what they need, not hard throwers who are as likely to strike someone out as they are to penetrate the wall behind the plate. I'd rather get a guy in the low 90s who can keep his WHIP under 1.200 than a 100 mph thrower who can break solid walls but can't get it over the plate. The lower velocity guys are also less likely to need TJS.
Tex
I never said that the OFers I highlighted here should be an early pick.
Once again about outfielders broken out here... oh, let's move on.
The talent level in this draft is so high because of the traffic jam of players created because of COVID.
Yeah... more Corey Oswalt.
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