Mets360 - On locking up Michael Conforto to an extension

By Brian Joura September 11, 2020

It’s been great fun to watch Michael Conforto here, especially lately. After back-to-back seasons with an OPS+ in the 120s, Conforto sits with a 171 mark, fighting with Dominic Smith for the team lead in the category. But it’s more than just offense, Conforto has made several highlight-reel defensive plays and his arm seems both strong and accurate. For a guy who was once considered a defensive liability, it’s a good feeling that a ball hit in his direction isn’t going to be time to close your eyes.

We almost take for granted how good Conforto’s been. Let’s take a moment to revisit the preseason projections that were published on Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. All of these models saw a very similar player:

ATC – 623 PA, .256/.359/.500, 33 HR, 89 RBIs
Marcel – 588 PA, .259/.361/.494, 30 HR, 83 RBIs
Steamer – 603 PA, .251/.358/.490, 31 HR, 85 RBIs
THE BAT – 602 PA, .259/.359/.491, 30 HR, 84 RBIs
ZiPS – 607 PA, .256/.361/.492, 31 HR, 96 RBIs

All five systems saw a guy with an OPS between .848 and .859, which is quite a far cry from the .990 mark he currently holds.

A popular topic in Mets-land now is to say that one of the top priorities for Steve Cohen when he comes on board is to work out an extension for Conforto. And some have taken it a step further, saying that it was another mistake made by the front office/ownership – not buying out Conforto’s arbitration and early free agent seasons.

But exactly when were the Mets supposed to do that? Was it after the 2015 season, when he had all of 56 games? After 2016 and a .725 OPS? After 2017 and a season-ending injury? After 2018 and a .797 OPS?

You can make a case for 2017, since he was on target for a great season before coming down with a shoulder injury. But there’s just not a ton of precedent for handing out a long-term deal to a pre-arb player who missed the last 30-plus games of the year without seeing him back on the field first. In fact, there might not be any precedent. If you know of a guy, leave it in the comments section. The one who came to mind was Salvador Perez, who signed a five-year deal after just 39 games in the majors in 2011. But that deal happened at the end of February and he suffered the injury on March 12.

It’s tougher to make that same case for 2018. Conforto finished with a 120 wRC+, which is a very nice total. But it ranked just 25th among outfielders with enough PA to qualify for the FanGraphs’ leaderboards. Above him on the list was Brandon Nimmo, with a 148 wRC+ – should they have signed him to an extension to buy out his arbitration and a free agent year or two, too? And if Conforto and Nimmo deserved one with their play that season, how about Jeff McNeil and his 137 mark in the category?

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