By Brian Joura December 17, 2020
It’s no secret that
the Rockies would like to get out from the contract of their star third
baseman, Nolan Arenado. Recently,
the Rockies indicated they would “like to engage” the Mets on a deal for Arenado.
That certainly makes sense, as the Mets likely have the ability to take
Arenado’s contract and the Rockies would prefer to deal him as far away from
the NL West as possible.
The Mets could use a
Gold Glove third baseman. Is the contract a deal killer? Perhaps but from here
on let’s focus on what type of value Arenado would provide the Mets, rather
than if it’s a smart idea at this moment to trade for him. You hear people all
of the time quote his road numbers, which are far inferior to the ones he puts
up at Coors Field.
But are the road
numbers really what he’d hit like all year if he was removed from playing half
of his games in Colorado? One of the stats we like to use is OPS+, which
adjusts for both league and ballpark – which makes it a good number to use to
compare players from different teams or different eras. It’s easier to hit in
Coors Field in 2000 than it was to hit in Dodger Stadium in 1966. OPS+ puts
numbers on an equivalent basis.
In 2000, Larry Walker put up
a .309/.409/.506 line for the Rockies. In 1966, Lou Johnson slashed
.272/.316/.414 for the Dodgers. Those two lines were separated by 185 points of
OPS but once you account for the offensive environment of both the league and
the park, those two seasons were virtually identical. Walker posted a 110 OPS+
while Johnson checked in with a 109.
Let’s check on Rockies hitters from when when they installed the humidor in 2002 up through 2020. We’ll focus on ones who played 650 PA both in Coors Field and with another park or parks as their home and compare how they did both as Rockies and elsewhere.
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