12/22/20

Tom Brennan - METS' BULLPEN REALITY


Lots of people still resent
Edwin Diaz - like it is his fault that he got traded for Kelenic - like he blew a few saves last year - like he's not Mariano Rivera (who is) - like he gives you agita watching him sometimes.


Some folks want to trade him.  Not me.  I love the strikeout machine.  To me, he's a keeper.


Yeah, he had a bad year.  But last year, aside from a few hiccups, he was a Rock Star.


I looked at a Fantasy League ESPN list of the Top 75 MLB relievers.  


Guess where Edwin was?   # 3 in all of baseball.  In other words,  27 teams did not have a reliever ranked 1 through 3 - but we did.


Guess what else?   


The only other Mets reliever on the list is Trevor May, at # 48, which sounds awfully far down the list, but which means that he would be a better 2nd reliever than half the teams in baseball have.


Guess what other Mets relievers are on the Top 75 list?  None.  


Not Seth Lugo, not Justin Wilson, not Jeurys Familia.   


So...you still want to get rid of Edwin?  Not me.


Interestingly, free agents Liam Hendriks is ranked # 2, and Brad Hand is ranked # 5.  Me?  I would get Hand, and maybe Hendricks too.  


If you want to have a killer pen, stock it with stone cold killers.


(Shockingly, guess who was # 14 on the reliever's list?  None other than Rafael Montero, that's who!)


Before I get to the Top 75 Relievers list, just be aware that Trevor Bauer is ranked 4th in starters and 17th out of all MLB players.  So perhaps we should not be quite as dismissive of Mr. Bauer.


Anyway, here is that relievers' list - we want the best pen, pay for it.


Top 75 Relief Pitchers

POS.
RANK

PLAYER

TEAM

AGE

1

Josh Hader

MIL

26

2

Liam Hendriks

FA

32

3

Edwin Diaz

NYM

27

4

Aroldis Chapman

NYY

33

5

Brad Hand

FA

31

6

Nick Anderson

TB

30

7

Kenley Jansen

LAD

33

8

Alex Colome

FA

32

9

Ryan Pressly

HOU

32

10

Raisel Iglesias

LAA

31

11

Trevor Rosenthal

FA

30

12

James Karinchak

CLE

25

13

Devin Williams

MIL

26

14

Rafael Montero

SEA

30

15

Mark Melancon

FA

36

16

Drew Pomeranz

SD

32

17

Giovanny Gallegos

STL

29

18

Kirby Yates

FA

34

19

Taylor Rogers

MIN

30

20

Brandon Kintzler

FA

36

21

Jordan Romano

TOR

27

22

Roberto Osuna

FA

26

23

Jose Leclerc

TEX

27

24

Zack Britton

NYY

33

25

Jordan Hicks

STL

24

26

Greg Holland

KC

35

27

Daniel Hudson

WSH

34

28

Jeremy Jeffress

FA

33

29

A.J. Puk

OAK

25

30

Lucas Sims

CIN

26

31

Diego Castillo

TB

27

32

Garrett Crochet

CWS

21

33

Bryan Garcia

DET

25

34

Craig Kimbrel

CHC

32

35

Chad Green

NYY

29

36

Rafael Dolis

TOR

33

37

Victor Gonzalez

LAD

25

38

Luis Patino

SD

21

39

Richard Rodriguez

PIT

31

40

Archie Bradley

FA

28

41

Mike Mayers

LAA

29

42

Michael Lorenzen

CIN

29

43

Tanner Rainey

WSH

28

44

Alex Reyes

STL

26

45

Josh Staumont

KC

27

46

Aaron Bummer

CWS

27

47

Amir Garrett

CIN

28

48

Trevor May

NYM

31

49

Hector Neris

PHI

31

50

Codi Heuer

CWS

24

51

Matt Barnes

BOS

30

52

Pete Fairbanks

TB

27

53

Daniel Bard

COL

35

54

Brandon Workman

FA

32

55

Emmanuel Clase

CLE

23

56

Austin Gomber

STL

27

57

Stefan Crichton

ARI

29

58

Emilio Pagan

SD

29

59

Brusdar Graterol

LAD

22

60

Jonathan Hernandez

TEX

24

61

Andrew Miller

STL

35

62

Will Smith

ATL

31

63

Jesse Hahn

KC

31

64

Hunter Harvey

BAL

26

65

Matt Foster

CWS

26

66

Freddy Peralta

MIL

24

67

Matt Wisler

SF

28

68

Gregory Soto

DET

26

69

Anthony Bass

FA

33

70

Tejay Antone

CIN

27

71

Tyler Duffey

MIN

30

72

Blake Treinen

FA

32

73

Jonathan Loaisiga

NYY

26

74

Ty Buttrey

LAA

28

75

Yimi Garcia

MIA

30



18 comments:

John From Albany said...

Very interesting Tom. It sure shows a lot of the value in Diaz and May.

I think one of the reasons why Diaz is ranked so high on this chart and Lugo doesn't even make it is that sometimes Fantasy Leagues value some things over others. I am not sure how the ESPN league works but some leagues will highly value Ks and Saves but not holds or leaving inherited runners on base. They also may not assign a negative number to HRs, Walks, or Blown Saves. I also think that is why Devin Williams was not ranked higher.

Reese Kaplan said...

I've been quoting the productivity Diaz showed in 2020 past week number one. He was virtually unhittable. Yet some folks never forgive him just as they never hold accountable the folks who DON'T get it done.

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, very true. I am hoping Diaz vaults to # 1 in 2021.

John, that makes sense, but Rafael Montero at # 14? Wow.

Remember1969 said...

I agree with you Tom. Diaz is a keeper. I do not see the logic of some of the posts that advocate them signing Hendriks and Hand and then trading Diaz.

I see the value of signing Hand and having a bullpen starting with Diaz, Hand, May, and Lugo.

The 'value' they would get out of a trade for Diaz (who is 5 years younger and a lot less expensive than Hendriks) would be obtained just as readily through free-agency without giving up one of the top closers in the game.

I suppose if the Mets were in rebuild mode, trading him would make some sense, but they are really in a win-now mode. They need the best.

Anonymous said...

Okay, as someone who has floated trading Diaz, let me explain (since it is being misrepresented here):

1) I like Diaz, was thrilled when the Mets acquired him because at the time he was, I thought, the best young reliever in baseball, with a good contract and years of team control -- added to a team that was dead last in bullpen statistics. It was always The Diaz Trade, not the Cano Trade. (Kelenic aside.)

2) He was awful -- disastrous -- in 2019. It was troubling. Was NYC part of the problem? He rebounded nicely in 2020 in front of those tough NY crowds. Oh, wait. There was no one in the stadiums! So that does give me pause. Anyone can see that he has electric stuff. I believe in him. But, yeah, I have not forgotten what happened in 2019.

3) Mostly, though, for me it is this: I believe we will see relievers going at bargain prices this year in a relatively non-competitive market. I could be wrong. When Hand passed through waivers it was eye-opening. So I wondered, and still wonder, if there might be an OPPORTUNITY to sign two more relievers at quality contracts for 2-3 years each.

4) And since Diaz will still be relatively cheap in 2021, he would have interest in the trade market. What would he bring back? I don't know. I surely wouldn't dump an asset like that for nothing. But it might be that Diaz brings us Lindor. Or enhances a deal that gets the Indians to include a starting pitcher.

Conclusion: He's a tradeable asset at a time when he could be replaced via the soft market. None of that is a rejection of his 2020 stats, or being mad that he isn't Rivera. If you bring in Hand and another guy, it makes Diaz expendable (especially if we can slide Lugo back into the pen, too, once Noah is back). What's utterly unknown to me is what he'd bring back in a trade. Obviously, you don't flip him unless you think it can directly address another area of weakness. The other huge unknown to me, as a fan sitting in a chair, is a clear read of the guy: the gut check, the look in his eyes. If he truly past the nightmare of 2019? Or does he still look a little spooked? I'm not in a position to make that guess.

Jimmy

John From Albany said...

Diaz is supposedly lobbying the Mets to play this Winter in Puerto Rico. Hopefully this will help him have a good 2021.

Tom Brennan said...

Hey Jimmy, this was not directed at you. I saw SO MANY on Facebook during the summer who couldn’t get over 2019 and still criticized him on an ongoing basis all of 2020 because he blew a few saves. One to Ozuna, who turned out to be darned good in 2020. They were relentlessly negative, not quite getting that everyone fails in save opportunities...I think Mariano failed 10% of the time. In 2019 he had some bad failures against a very potent Washington line up, as much of the rest of the Mets pen brought gasoline cans to the mound with them.

That said, they should always listen to deals, but could you imagine a pen with Diaz, Hendricks, Hand and May, and perhaps Lugo? Starters would be happy to go five or six with that.

Tom Brennan said...

John, Diaz knows what makes him tick. I say let him do it, as long as he’s careful.

Eddie from Corona said...

Well I am one for definitely trading Diaz... if his value is as high as claimed. Then try trading him with cano (yep I am going there) see if we get 1/2 of the value we lost...
I addition the bulk of fans has no confidence in him... you say he had hiccups but he lost games that stay with us...
his departure would also leave the stench of BVD

As long ttb as he is here he is attached to the negative last 2 years

He should be packaged and definitely sign hand and Henricks
Let them fight each other off for the closers position

Remember1969 said...

I would think that giving Diaz a few innings this winter would be a good thing. With this past year cut short and who knows what 2021 will be, he has not thrown much (at least game situation) for quite a while.

This is great discussion - I love the varying thoughts. Jimmy, a very thorough and thoughtful analysis.

That darned 2019 season hangs like a dark cloud and unfortunately we didn't have enough sunshine in 2020 to completely remove it. It is certainly lightened up and I think everybody feels better about Diaz at this point than one year ago.

Right now I am parked that Diaz is on a path to being one of the great ones and I am very happy to have him as the number 1 guy.

Relievers, in general, are very hard to read, especially in the last 10 to 15 or so years.

Once we moved past the great ones of the 80's and 90's - Rivera, Smith, Wagner, Franco, Eckersly, Myers, Quiz, etc. we saw a lot of guys become the 'cream' only to fizzle out for one reason or another. Remember Ugeth Urbana? Keith Foulke? Ryan Franklin?, Todd Jones? Jeff Shaw? Bryan Shaw? Wade Davis? Joe Borowski? Chad Cordero? Jeurys Familia? even Brad Lidge?

I am leery of guys like Liam Hendriks that has seen a bit of success after the age of 30 - is it sustainable? I think that is even more questionable than Diaz's prior issues.

Having a guy like Diaz come in to close a game when almost two of every three outs is a strikeout is something not to give up quickly.

It is so hard to tell what a great bullpen is. Everyone thought Colorado was stacked when they signed Davis, B. Shaw, and Jake McGee .. didn't help that team. The Tampa bullpen of 2020 didn't have a lot of 'names', but was certainly effective and carried them to the World Series.

Anonymous said...

Tom, one thing we do is the BVW haters -- the people who continually, endlessly bring up "the trade" -- have turned that anger at both Cano and Diaz.

The problem was always the owners, the ones who hired BVW with a "win now" directive. And if that trade worked as it should have (even the fiercest critics felt those guys would help short-term), the Mets would have taken the Division and had a shot at the WS.

Didn't happen. Also: Noah sucked in '19 and that didn't help. The plan was always to ride the arms: Jake, Zack, Noah, Matz.

How many articles did we read here at this site about the soon-to-be glory days of the "Five Aces"?

It's weird to me: Sandy gets a free pass for 7 1/2 years of mediocrity, at best, because of the Wilpons. But Brodie gets one season and a Covid-60 and he's the worst GM on the planet, personally responsible for everything. The double standard is bizarre.

So, given that there are those rabid haters out there, turning their anger on Diaz, it may be that trading him would be the "exorcism" the fans demand.

Jimmy

Tom Brennan said...

The fans that are stubborn need to give up their need for a pound of flesh. Some fans may have felt that way when (almost no fault of his own) Jerry Koosman went 11-35 over two seasons. They kept him, and the next season he won 20. We excised the "boil" that is Travis d'Arnaud and look what we got.

I would only trade Diaz if we got an overwhelming haul - and replaced him with equal or better. The last 5 years, the primary culprit in Mets' failures has been the bullpen. We have to be VERY careful to have a superior pen in 2021.

Tom Brennan said...

Jimmy, Brodie was no doubt winner of the bad timing award, with the virus knocking out Stroman and losing Syndergaard. If those two don't happen, 26-34 might have been 34-26

Anonymous said...

Not just a good move by new owner SC

But rather a great, great, great one. Imagine that. We are actually going for it all...THIS SEASON!

What a new and interesting concept Mets' fans!

No more crying over injured players and being 15 games out on June 1st again.

One can only hope.

Casey Smiles Down

Anonymous said...

Looks like Luis Guillorme and maybe even Ronnie Mauricio may

See some improved game time this season.

I liked Amed Rosario a lot. He has that incredible "turn it on dial" about him that most players don't. And I didn't agree with the Mets holding him back last season as they did, because at the end of 2019 I said here that I thought Amed had a realistic shot at becoming an NL All Star SS in 2020.

But now he can maybe become that guy I saw in him here, for the Cleveland Injuns.

I wish Amed and Andres the very best in their future maybe both starting on the Indian infield in 2021. Here's that chance for both to play more now. My hunch is they will grab it and both be really awesome.

Anonymous said...

I like the addition of veteran Carrasco too.

However, I do hope that new owner SC brings in the kids early and works some with them to complete anything missing with their game because sometimes it is just a slight thing and easily remedied by a good pitching coach.

Guys coming to mind might be starters like Gonzales, Szapucki, and maybe too Uceta, who could also maybe be looked at for middle relief right handed.

I am very glad that the NYM did not bite on that Asian starter. On average they just don't seem to stick in MLB for very long once their unusual delivery is figured out.

Anonymous said...

New York Mets Fans

This has been a most A-M-A-Z-I-N-G DAY FOR US ALL.

Thank you Mr. Steve Cohen. You can stay sir!

Anonymous said...

I am numb. Not kidding.

This one trade changes the whole enchilada.

It's like now, "We are somebody again. We still exist. No really."

And after the last 12 months of nightmares (i.e. Covid19 in particular), it is sooooooooooooooooo good, I tell ya'!!!