12/21/20

Reese Kaplan -- Winning is Also About Preventing Runs From Scoring

One of the hot topics among Mets fans is the relative value of defense vs. offense when it comes to playing winning baseball.  No one can deny the great thrill of beating up on opposing pitchers with hard hit line drives and towering home runs to ensure victory.  Many of us can recite with vivid memory examples of distinctive and impressive feats done with savagery by some of the best hitters in the game.  Sometimes it’s a monstrous home run landing in the upper deck and sometimes it’s a well placed base hit that pushes the winning run unexpectedly across the plate.

During the 2019 season and the 2020 seasons the Mets seemed fairly capable in this regard.  They enjoyed the exploits of Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Dom Smith, Amed Rosario, J.D. Davis, Wilson Ramos, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil.  At times each of them demonstrated the ability to punish the opposition with the wooden stick in their hands and fans cheered wildly when it happened.

The other side of this equation, however, is preventing the very nature of the offensive barrage that leads to fans wild excitement.  One avenue to prevent such revelry is to pitch effectively enough that opposing hitters are not capable of delivering the hard hit balls that win games. 




Unfortunately, last season was a reflection of what happens among starters and relievers when the ability to miss bats was not readily evident.  Yes, Jacob deGrom was always Jacob deGrom and Edwin Diaz was the kind of pitcher they hoped they’d gotten when they obtained him for the 2019 season.  Pretty much the rest of them were not as predictable about when they would succeed and when they would implode.


Even further down the list of priorities is the long forgotten concept of defense.  Most General Managers and team owners have fallen under the spell of the three run homer as the only means necessary to win games.  They gave very little regard to how well the infielders and outfielders were doing at tracking down the ball, making throws and preventing opposing runners from scoring.  


A lot of the dialog this off season has had to do with getting the big pitcher or the big hitter to play centerfield.  A bit less has been written about the importance of strong infield defense when it comes to who will man third base, yet at the same time folks are throwing Amed Rosario under the bus in deference to Andres Gimenez’ superior defense.  




It always seemed that superior glove men held a double duty of preventing runs from crossing the plate as well as increasing pitchers’ confidence in knowing that anything hit was going to be handled with aplomb.  The pitchers didn’t have to feel that anything less than a strikeout was a potential failure.  As a result good defense leads to better pitching which results in more winning of ballgames.  


As the Mets make their foray into the brave new world of Cohenmania, it’s time they rethink the obsolete idea of launch angle as the only value a player contributes to the game.  Knowing double plays will be turned regularly and successfully, knowing baserunners will be gunned down with solid throws and knowing outfielders can position themselves to corral whatever is hit will go a long way towards changing the perception of the team as somehow incomplete and only partially respectable.  No one wants to see what Wilson Ramos did for his pitchers any more than they want to see Brandon Nimmo butchering balls in centerfield or J.D. Davis playing third like a brick wall. 


7 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Some weak defense is tolerable, but too much is counter=productive. Pete Alonso having a zero WAR in 2020 was in part due to his resurrecting Gr. Strange Glove. Rosario fields much more like Ozzie Ozborne than Ozzie Smith. JD Davis might even make errors while DHing. Nimmo is not shagadelic in CF.

We need better D, while not compromising our O.

Maybe Arenado can be our Brooks Robinson. He had 42 WAR from age 30-37, much of it with the PLATINUM GLOVE.

Tom Brennan said...

Also, on the Brooks Robinson/Arenado comparison, do you know what Brooks did every season from age 30 thru 38? GOLD GLOVE. 16 in all. I could see Arenado following that model.

Reese Kaplan said...

The two concerns over who would be the Mets' second Nolan are his offensive splits outside of Coors and his high salary. Sometimes, however, you have to spend to get what you need.

Steev said...

Base on the comments, I believe the theme of this article is another we need Arenado.

I would agree that adding Arenado would strengthen the left side of the infield. McCann, I believe improved the catcher position. Now to prevent runs we need to improve the defense in center, need to improve the defense in left, with out a DH improve the defense at first, and finally, improve the defense (run prevention) of the pitchers.

By adding a true center fielder and moving Nimmo to left, improve two of the above shortcomings? (center and left) Basically a two for one deal. I would hope for the DH as that would improve the defense at first (Smith over Alonso). There will be funds then to get pitching to help improve the run prevention. Now for third .... Davis is not the best but I would stay with him except when Stroman is pitching as Stroman is more of a ground ball pitcher. I would insert Luis G for the defense he provides.

By adding say Springer, he will only cost us our draft pick this year. Adding Arenado will costs us players. Depending on the players, we could be creating additional defensive (and offensive) holes that need to be filled plus the cost of the minor league system. We are short on depth on the parent club and the cupboard is pretty bare at AAA.

Anonymous said...

The defensive numbers for the Mets across the past three years put them at the bottom of the MLB, by a landslide. It's ugly to watch and it undermines our pitching.

Unfortunately, Sandy never valued defense. He whiffed on that badly. Brodie, too, did not make it a priority.

It must change -- and it cannot change in one offseason with a trade and a few signings. It is a system problem, firmly entrenched by 7 1/2 years under the Alderson regime. Scouting, drafting, development: It needs to refocus on speed and athleticism. No more infatuations with the Jay Bruce type player.

Springer will help a lot in CF, as he is at least legitimate out there. Nimmo in LF is good. Smith is horrendous, sadly. That's the old Mets thinking: Through guys out of position and hope the ball doesn't find them. I'm hoping for the DH and Smith at 1B. Gimenez at SS should be a big upgrade; same with McCann at C. This is good news. I can live with Davis/Rosario at 3B. I do have significant worries about McNeil at 2B, both in terms of defense and durability. I wish he had the arm for 3B, but he doesn't.

Arenado would be a horrible, incredibly lame move. That contract is terrible and he's in decline. It's a media fabrication. I prefer trading for Lindor, if we end up going that way.

Sign Springer. Sign at least one more top-shelf reliever (I'd go for two). Sign one more quality starter (Odorizzi type) and possibly another on the cheap. And hopefully that's enough to make the playoffs. Could be that Lugo starts season in rotation and slides back once Noah comes back -- or Seth earns the spot with dominating performances.

I don't think we solve the defense problem overnight, it's a team culture issue, a Sandy problem, but it will be significantly improved up the middle. The DH will be key here, because without out we'll have real problems getting good gloves on the field. A painful trade would seem necessary.

Jimmy


Remember1969 said...

I agree with Jimmy. Arenado's contract will box them in. Trade for Lindor, as I view defense up the middle even more critical than defense at 3rd.

I am worried that McNeil will turn out to be a not very good second baseman. It won't do the pitchers all that much good if they have good defense on the left side and the right side is porous, or they find that they miss turning routine double plays. Perhaps I am wrong about McNeil.

Tom Brennan said...

I would be fine with Linder over Arenado. Prefer him, given the age differential. However, much comes down to the deal. How desperate is Colorado to trade him? The Indians may be equally desperate to move Linder and save bucks.