1) Effectiveness of Pitching
2) Effectiveness of Offense
3) Effectiveness of Defense
As Reese Kaplan noted in his recent article, FOR THE GLOVE OF BASEBALL, defense is an important component for a winning team.
I therefore decided to look at what Baseball Reference listed for teams defense-wise, and for the Mets in particular, in 2020.
What I saw wasn't pretty, and if you watched the games, you didn't need the fancy stats to tell you that, but here is what I took out of BR's team defense breakout:
Rtot (Total Fielding Runs Above Average): the Dodgers had the best result at +37 Runs, while the Mets were 29th at a -33.
Errors - the Mets caught what they got to as the team average errors were 35 and they made just 31 (the Yanks made a baseball-worst 48). Houston and Minny each, however, made just 20 miscues, so the Mets were far from best.
DPs - Colorado with Arenado and Story CRUSHED IT in terms of DPs turned with 78. League average was 48, but the Mets made just 37 DPs, 27th in baseball and, remarkably, less than half the Rockies' total.
Rdrs (Defensive Runs Saved): St Louis led with a positive 33, with LAD at +29. The Mets? 26th at -22 (remarkably, the Nats were awfully worst with a -43.
"Rgood" (positive for great plays, negative for obvious misplays) - I don't quite get the results here, except for the Mets' placement in the list. The top of the list had 4 teams at +3. The Mets were 29th at -4.
Unearned Runs - which doesn't reflect runs coughed up due to substandard plays that weren't the result of errors of passed balls, such as DPs not turned). The Blue Jays shed an astonishing 44 unearned runs, while the Cubs and Detroit gave up just 10. The Mets allowed 24 unearned, which isn't very good.
And, did you know that in 1964, the Mets' Jesse Gonder had 21 passed balls in just 97 games? That hadda (not) help!
Wild pitches don't help either. The great John Smoltz wasn't all good - he led the NL in wild pitches over 3 straight seasons (1990-92).
All in all, the concern about the Mets' 2020 defense was oh-so real, as the defense clearly was oh-so bad, and should not be overlooked in this off season's rebuild.
A goal of MLB-average team defense in 2021 should be the target for the Mets, IMO. Above average pitching, above average hitting, AND AT LEAST MLB-AVERAGE DEFENSE.
I love Mets' offense, as I have often said in the past, after having suffered with so many below average Mets' offensive squads since 1962, but this 2020 defense had the scent of limburger cheese, so hopefully, in 2021, I can have my cake (offense) and eat it too (defense).
Before I go: Have a happy, and safe, New Years.
I did note that in the summer we bottomed in terms of Suffolk County COVID hospitalizations at 13, and there were days where the positive test rate was 0.5%. Yesterday, there were 54 times as many in the hospital (700) and a positive rate 25 times higher than that summer low point, with the positive rate incredibly jumping 5 points in 2 days from 7.8% to 12.8%.
So, it is a whole different ballgame. Be careful.
And thanks for putting up with me this year!
15 comments:
Tom,
Not looking at the numbers, 2020's defense seemed better than the 2019 defense. Gimenez made a big difference in the infield as did Guillorme. Maybe if a good fielding, speedy, right handed bat that helped a team in Brooklyn win a championship while playing 3B, 2B, and SS could come up and platoon with these guys, we'd at least have good up the middle defense.
Nimmo in CF and Dom/JD in LF kills the defense. Would this warrant over paying for Springer or Bradley Jr?
A happy and healthy new year to you as well Tom and all the others here on Mack’s Mets.
Offensive players get paid most of the money but sometimes way too much. I would only play 2 way players the top salaries. Someone like Alonso in my opinion, even though he hits 40 homers per season, should only garner $15 million a year when he is contract eligible. Dom Smith on the other hand, if he keeps doing what he has over the past year and a half, should get $25 mil per season.
If I were GM I would only offer top salary to a Springer, Lindor and Realmuto type player that help you on both sides of the ball. I think McCann was a great signing at his price, hopefully he can keep the offense up and this deal could be a steal, no pun intended.
Even though they got injured Beltran and Wright were those type of players and we’re paid accordingly. Piazza may be the only exception to the rule in my book but he was good behind the plate and seemed to make everyone around him so much better in the lineup. I believe because he handled the NY spot light perfectly and and took the weight off everyone else’s shoulders. So he was paid properly as well. That would be another reason to be paid a little bit extra here in NY, being able to deal with the pressure. Ed Whitson could attest to that? Lol
I am growing more and more fond of Jackie Bradley JR instead of Springer if he is looking for that high and long of a contract. JB Jr for $10- $12 per year is looking pretty good right now and spend the extra cash on pitching? How bat isn’t that bad either, you my be able to catch lighting in a bottle with McCann and him as well. What do you y’all think?
Zozo, thanks, you too.
It is disturbing to think where Springer's salary may (emphasize "may") be going. Bauer too. Having elite guys for the post-season is so important, because few win without them.
That said, I am flexible to whatever plan allows us to be a virtual post-season certainty in 2021 and every year thereafter. I want to dominate our division annually, despite challenges from the Braves and Nats. If JB Jr over Springer allows us to build a truly killer pitching staff with flexibility, and perhaps a STRONG # 2 catcher, I'm OK with that. What if McCann only starts 60% of their games?
Bradley hit well in 2020, but he could just as easily hit .220 next season, and he is a lefty bat, which the Mets are overstocked with. So I have caution with him, frankly. He also is a career .217 hitter on the road - UGH. I'd prefer Springer. And hoping we have a few young OF stars in 3 years coming up thru the system. Man, Kelenic would have been arriving at the right time had he stayed.
John, WIlmer Reyes feels like a 2022 possible for me, not 2021.
Mets are in a bad spot, and Springer knows it. There’s no #2, as there was with Realmuto. This is the result of good homework by Springer and a team that has too much attention on it. The Blue Jays don’t need a CF that is already 31, they’re just busting balls. Alderson may know that, but he is kind of in a bad position. That the Blue Jays made an offer of over $100M i call Bulshit on. They should offer that to Realmuto.
Bradley makes sense in the numbers, but not in the balance. Trading for Tamps’s Kiermaier is not a great option because the Mets lack prospects. Would Pillar at a few bucks a year work? Cohen would be pretty pissed...
Yesterday I offered that Lindor and Machado are almost identical stat wise over their 23-26 seasons, seeing how Lindor is now 27. For Machado, the Dodgers gave up five prospects that added up didn’t amount to a platoon player.
Read that Bauer’s phone isn’t ringing too often from MLB teams, but all it takes is one. He wants $40MM? LOL, well I guess there’s nothing wrong with asking.
Happy New Year guys.
It was funny, I was thinking about the centerfield issue earlier this morning and wondering if Springer wasn't the right answer for the money. I guess I saw that he was looking for something north of $150M.
I got thinking about Bradley and wanted to take another look at his numbers. He did look like he learned the strike zone a bit better last year and he does in fact walk quite a bit, so I am thinking .. might be an option. Then as Gus just alluded to, I tried to put it together with the rest of the team. It really does not work very well.
While I still think Springer is the best guy, I am still not on the "Cohen has a lot of money" bus. I don't want to see an overpay and I really don't feel like there is any reason to. Again, like Gus, I don't see Toronto as really being serious players for that kind of money, and if not Toronto, then who. Springer might know that the Mets are in a bind, but it is really him that is in a box. I think he might just take that 1 year deal at this point and see if the market thaws out a bit next year. Boston may be back in the running?
I suppose if the Mets can fleece Lindor for spare parts he will give them an additional right handed bat, it might another look at Bradley worth it.
Happy New Year guys! More good stuff coming!
And Tom, we have not 'put up with you'. I have thoroughly enjoyed reading your articles and our back and forth conversations. Here's to health and more Mets banter (and success) in 2021!
69, that’s a brilliant idea!
You get Lindor for an affordable package and sign Bradley. You then use the money you would spent on Springer to resign Lindor! So rather than an aging CFer, you have a SS in prime and Bradley should be had for about 2-3 years at about $10-$15 range. I love that thought.
The other positive is that it saves the #2 draft pick :-) Reload the farm!
Thanks, Remember 1969.
And I agree: Great idea on Lindor. If Springer wants to hold out for Mega Millions, we ought to call his bluff.
Did you see Duquette suggested a Hader to the Mets trade of either JD Davis or Gimenez, and Oswalt? Do we really think the Brewers would do that? I would, as long as Hader is healthy, especially if it is JD Davis and not Gimenez.
John, also that was a good perspective - that the Mets rates that poorly defensively, despite the unexpectedly large amount of playing time garnered by Gimenez and Guillorme. If not for those 2, we would very possibly have been the worst D squad in BB.
From MLBTR, an excerpt on a post concerning Tampa’s ability to move Kiermaier:
“(Kiermaier’s) owed $26MM over the next two seasons: $11.5MM in 2021, $12.5MM in 2022 and at least a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM option for the 2023 season.
It’s not an overly burdensome contract, but at a time when teams throughout the league are scaling back on payroll, it’s a notable chunk of cash. That’s all the more true when Kiermaier’s skill set is similar to that of free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. — a player who may not command as much as the two years and $26MM still owed to Kiermaier. Bradley would cost only money for a team seeking a center field boost, and while he’s not a great offensive player, he does have a steadier and more productive track record.”
It goes in the say that Kiermaier may have been hindered by a bad thumb at the plate and that he has only played in 346 games in the last four years.
I say, kick the tires. Two years... why not? Give them Guillorme for him. If they want prospects, I’d offer them a few players from the DSL roster...
hmm. .JD Davis and Oswalt for Hader? Not a chance the Brewers would do that one .. not sure where that came from or why.
If they go Kiermaier, Guillorme would work for me.
Remember 1969, apparently that was a Jim Duquette proposal.
Two things:
1. That was me that posted the MLBTR comment. I forgot to write my name.
2. Around BBthere is a leering that Hader has been used up, kind of how the Mets (ahem, Bozo the Manager) burned up Addison Reed. Hader’s velocity is down every year for three straight and his usage has been high.
Before trading for Hader - Google Josh Hader Tweets.
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