Reese Kaplan -- You Have to Give to Get (Ducking & Hiding)

Though some modest optimism reappeared after the Mets managed to win a few games, the fact is even the most ardent fans know that the Mets must make many changes to compete in the future.  The topic of starting pitching has been bandied about many times because no matter how you slice it, the Mets are indeed weak going into next season.

While most folks advocate something like a creative one-year deal for Noah Syndergaard to allow himself to reestablish his value to the rest of the league while he’ll still be young enough to cash in big time starting in 2023, that approach won’t work for fellow free-agent-to-be Marcus Stroman.  

While his won-loss record won’t win any awards, the fact is he’s pitching like a number two on good teams and a number one on bad ones.  He’ll go for the gold and it’s highly questionable whether or not Steve Cohen wants to fork over the long term and expensive deal necessary to keep the pint-sized Long Island hurler at Citifield.  

So go with me for a moment and assume that you do not retain Syndergaard or Stroman.  That would leave your 2022 pitching rotation including Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker and a lot of question marks.  Carrasco hasn’t been healthy enough long enough to make definitive conclusions about how he’d do for a full season.  All Star Walker looks as if the innings pitched have taken their toll as he’s been on a relatively long sour streak since that honor was bestowed upon him.

Then there are the others.  David Peterson looked more bad than good (plus he’s hurt).  Jordan Yamamoto and Joey Lucchesi didn’t get enough innings to demonstrate what they were really capable of doing.  Tylor Megill started out like a house on fire, but he recently has been tagged rather roughly by the Mets opponents.  Then there are the assortment of others they’ve trotted out there, including free-agent-to-be Rich Hill, Jerad Eickoff didn’t make anyone happy.  It gets pretty murky in a hurry.  

One idea floated and summarily dismissed in the media and on the talk shows was whether or not the Mets would be wise to depart a year or two early on two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom.  While the initial response would be nearly the disdain fans felt for the club when the Tom Seaver fiasco happened, the fact is Seaver never got the kind of payday that deGrom rightfully receives for the caliber of pitching he delivers.  His numbers are actually better than Seaver’s and he started late into the pitching game (including minor league surgically repaired arm issues).  

Now in the 2021 season no one can dispute how absolutely unreal deGrom has been when he’s been capable of taking the mound.  You can’t readily replace that kind of dominance with the prospect of the week.  However, it might be time to question whether or not it would make good business sense to try to peddle deGrom to another ballclub who would enjoy his abilities (when he’s healthy enough to show them).  

The key to this trade would be two-fold.  First, deGrom is owed a lot of money.  Unlike the underperforming Francisco Lindor, deGrom has market potential.  He’s due to earn $33.5 million in 2022 after which he has an opt-out in his contract.  If he chose not to exercise it, then he would collect $30.5 million in 2023 and would have an optional $32.5 million in 2024.  That’s nearly $100 million of payroll dollars for a pitcher with health issues during his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons.  

The second issue is not just the financial relief Steve Cohen would obtain by dealing deGrom, but what would he get in return?  I won’t even try to hazard guesses as to what young veteran or highly touted prospects would come back to the Mets.  The fact is that you now have nearly that entire $100 million to fulfill other club needs.

For example, say Marcus Stroman wants a 4-year $100 million deal.  Would it be more prudent to keep him around for an extra year at a younger age and a greater track record of health?  Suppose Noah Syndergaard would agree to a free agent contract at a somewhat reduced or opt-out arrangement by the Mets taking the risk of securing him before they know how well he’s recovered from his surgery.  

Or the Mets could wave goodbye to these players and instead insist that young, healthy pitchers come back in a deal for deGrom who cost almost nothing from the major and minor league rosters of the acquiring ballclub.  Then you have money to decide what to do in right field and how to replace Jeurys Familia whose three-year deal comes to an end after the 2021 season.  

Having suffered through the midnight massacre that saw both Tom Seaver and Dave Kingman leave the Mets in mid-year trades, I know full well how painful that was to endure.  However, for a club already hooked to big money on some other players or facing ones who will get sizeable paychecks as they approach arbitration and free agency, from an investment perspective is trading deGrom the dumbest idea of all?  Perhaps not...