The thought to rush back Jacob deGrom for the last few games of the season would make sense if the team was fighting for a playoff position and they felt contributions by their best would be superior to entrusting a start to someone like Trevor Williams. This time, however, the question is not about deGrom and his recovery or the Mets' own ill-fated attempt at the post-season. Instead it's a similar situation about would-be free agent Noah Syndergaard whose two or so starts (if that's the role he's going to have) will do best to increase his viability to other teams considering him once the bidding begins.
So again the question arises, are the Mets considering him as a weapon towards the last ten days of the lost 2021 season, test driving him for a QO or possible contract extension, or are they just foolishly looking to allow him to reinjure himself without the normal course of recovery and demonstration against players in the minors?
Granted, the minor league options are pretty much over now, so that excuse will be used to theoretically justify a quick bump to rehab in the majors, but is it in the player's best interest? Certainly Thor wants to demonstrate to himself that the surgery was good, the recovery was good and that he's once again ready for major league opposition. He also wants to show potential bidders that he's ready to go and remind them of the pitcher he has been.
For anyone too busy to look it up online, Thor has been very, very good since arriving long ago as part of that multiplayer Travis d'Arnaud, John Buck and Wuilmer Becerra to the Mets when they sent Cy Young Award pitcher R.A. Dickey to Toronto where he nearly finished his career save for a final season at age 42 for the Braves. The Mets surely got the better of that deal with Dickey sporting a losing record for Toronto while giving up relatively few hits and under 3 walks per 9 IP, but producing a 4.05 ERA. He was not quite that good for Atlanta.
Now for the Mets Syndergaard for some relatively bad teams has gone 47-30 with a 3.31 ERA with 9.7 strikeouts per 9 IP while walking just 2.1 over the same span. There's no question he's a quality pitcher and has been an All Star during his sophomore season in 2016 when he was on the way to a 14-9 record with a 2.60 ERA for the whole year. Of course, he hasn't pitched since 2019, missing the shortened 2020 season as well as the vast majority of 2021.
Don't get me wrong. With Marcus Stroman likely off to look at a Zack Wheeler contract from the highest bidder, the Mets are arguably very thin in the starting rotation for 2022. As it sits right now they have deGrom, Walker, Carrasco and Megill. Both deGrom and Carrasco are coming off injuries and Megill has been up and down. Walker was an All Star but then it's been mostly downhill. Does that mean the fifth starter will be Jordan Yamamoto? Rich Hill is a free agent, so the Mets are indeed in need of some starting pitching.
Now, take it from a front office perspective. Do you go full fledged after Marcus Stroman to the tune of about $25 million per year (or more) and then in addition go for a $20 million QO for Syndergaard who hasn't pitched since his 4.28 year of 2019? Do you let them both walk? Do you take one and let the other go? Remember that Robinson Cano's salary comes back next year, so it limits what you can do in terms of payroll dollars. Michael Conforto is in a similar situation to Syndergaard, though he's had a full year to get it right and show he deserves the big multi-year deal.
Whether it is Sandy Alderson, a new GM or Steve Cohen making the roster and payroll decisions next season, it is not going to be easy. The spiraling-out-of-contention Mets have an awful lot of holes to fill and the 2022 season will be a test of how deep Cohen's pockets are or who needs to go to free up payroll for others.
10 comments:
It sounds like Thor will not be throwing sliders when he returns. Someone should have told him to minimize sliders back in June, and maybe he'd have been back that month. But, if he is not throwing sliders, how can one know if he'll be able to throw that key pitch for him going forward and not break down again? I'd be very leery of giving him more than a QO. He'll probably be healthy - but who knows.
Jake is fragile too, and may need to alter his pitching velocity and reduce his slider use as well if he is to hold up going forward. A Jake throwing to a 2.50 ERA over 34 starts is better than a 1.20 Jake over 15 starts.
I would sign Stroman - get it done. Do not look at his record. If he pitched for his old Toronto team this season, who can REALLY hit, he'd likely be 17-7, not 9-12. He doesn't have to throw 110 to be successful.
If this team did not expect to contend next year, Adam Oller and Josh Walker would be good alternatives. Oller has come out of nowhere and remarkably, in his last several starts at AA and AAA, he has thrown 51 innings, 29 hits, 66 Ks and just 9 runs, 5 of which came in one start. And 3 of those 5 came in his 5th and final inning that day.
Walker was great in AAearleir this season and has had some very good AAA starts, but 3 stinkers there in which he gave up 20 runs in 13 innings. in his other AAA outings, he's given up just 11 runs in 37 innings.
On a contender, though, which the Mets no doubt intend to be, both of those guys are likely to be call ups/relievers, not pencilled in starters. Oller seems to be the better of the two.
I’m not re-signing Stroman. He doesn’t miss bats and is moving up in years, I’m letting him go. Also, I would QO Conforto, but only sign him if it’s a good deal, otherwise, best of luck. He’s a good player, but you have others. QO Syndergaard because he’s the only difference maker of the bunch. Discuss a three year deal with him too, if it’s a good deal. Now is when you save money on the contract.
I'm joining a monastery.
I may find myself hoping the Sox can do well against the Mets tomorrow and Wednesday. The Mets are going nowhere, and I want the Yankees eliminated from playoff contention.
Bob W
In further comment on Stroman, his money will go to Syndergaard and give the Mets the best top 3 in baseball. Afterwards, Walker, Megill, Peterson, Yamamoto, and Lucchesi can figure it out.
My problem is with the duplicity of Smith, Conforto, McNeil being in the way of rostering a better center fielder. McNeil is not an outfielder, and can’t really play third base. I could keep Smith out there with Nimmo and move McNeil, but the return just isn’t there. Next year maybe a year of transition in which it really would be a shame to lose that kind of starting pitching on a lineup that is unsettled.
I am quickly coming to the conclusion that Stro and Thor are the two priority signings.
It is hard to see Syndergaard getting his big contract this winter after having not pitched for two years and having had a rather poor year in 2019. I think a QO is fair for both sides, but I don't make the decisions for either. There could be some team out there willing to bet $100M or more on his 2016 and 2018 seasons. Will it be the Mets?
Like Bob, I hope the Yankees are shut out of the post season, but I cannot hope that the Sox beating the Mets is the way it will happen. Let's keep the Yanks tailing off and the Blue Jays playing well.
Good piece. I thought coming into this season that the Mets had a solid core in place on which to build. Now I think it's going to be a much bigger challenge for next year. If they plan to contend, making Syndergaard a ~ $19 million raffle ticket makes sense. I keep going back and forth in my mind about giving Stroman a long-term deal. He'll be 31 next year, and I would be really hesitant to go beyond 4 years. I suspect there will be someone willing to go further.
Stroman is not a flamethrower, so I am less concerned about decline and injury than I would with a guy like, ummm, Syndergaard.
Nice post.
Here's another take.
Starting rotation is close to being a total rebuild situation for 2022 NYM. Not sure if everyone sees this but it is. Too many broken parts.
The outfield will need a new right fielder. McNeil and Nimmo should be back, LF and CF respectively. Cannot give Michael Conforto a hope you get better contract. Do not see him back in 2022 despite him being a really good guy here. And Jeff needs to finish 2021 strong.
K.Lee, Dom S., and maybe JD (if Mets go with Vientos at third) could also factor in for the third/fourth outfielder. In any event, I think the outfield will be kept totally in-house again and should not pose a problem for the team in 2022.
So what happen man?
Team had a very good class of players for sometime here, all came up relatively at the same time, developed from mainly Mets drafts. But they are pushing 30 now, and it was a horrible second half here in 2021. Led first half in their division, then almost phoned it in. Not a strong case for some players to be back. Not really sure Luis is back either. I think the "analytics stuff" finally needs to be buried in Shea Stadium's bullpen parking lot next to the tomatoes.
On analytics briefly..
May be more important in other sports than baseball. Football perhaps. Hasn't seemed to work too well in baseball beyond an occasional pitching matchup. But I have noticed if taken "too seriously" it is often subject to failure.
One of the true beauty's of this game of baseball has always been giving a bench player a "jump up chance" to prove himself, like later on in games batting for instance. Someone who has been working hard in practice or maybe just called up even from AAA. Someone who has caught the manager's eye in other words. This has happened in MLB history a lot more times than you think. Someone unexpected comes through.
The problem here is that analytics is based solely upon statistical matchups and not not a manager's "gut" instincts. This team cries for an older manager with sound "gut" instincts. I do like Luis Rojas and would retain him back to the position for which he came from. Doing analytics for maybe vital game situations as an input, which only a veteran manger could override if desired necessary by him.
The Mets have guys in their system now who are maybe one more MiLB season away. And yes, absolutely Mark Vientos should be given a shot here in 2022. See how he handles it. He is like 21. I keep JDD too. His hand is not even 100% yet, but he bats for a really high average despite. His power game will return in 2022 as his hand heals more.
The pen has sufficient talent there. But the rotation is actually a big part of the problem right now. Their big guns are gone. Everyone pretty much has a losing w/l record and this cannot go on again in 2022. Only J. Walker and Yamamoto in MiLB as well. Certain starters contracts may be hard to move.
Anonymous, great, thoughtful analysis, except Adam “Who?” Oller May be their best minors starter, based on his last several outstanding stretch of starts. Either that, or he is performing WAY over his head.
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