Greetings, Mets' fans.
Now that the offseason is upon us, the "hot stove" season is about to get underway which includes all kinds of rumors and projected signings, etc. Fans of every team are currently filling out their wish lists like a kid in the 1970's with the Sears Christmas Catalog. Mets' fans are no different and may even be a bit worse, due to the influx of Steve Cohen's sizable fortune and willingness to spend on payroll.
The more costly items in free agency are usually big name players that also play a premium position like shortstop, or in the case of this article, starting pitchers. Going into the 2023 season, three of the five starters that pitched in 2022 will be free agents, with only Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco slated to return (which isn't a bad place to start). So, the Mets will need to do some serious shopping this winter in order to fill out the rest of the rotation.
Last season, the Mets began the year with two "aces" atop the rotation in Max Scherzer and Jacob DeGrom. On paper it made a ton of sense, especially if the team could play meaningful games in September and it would be downright lethal in a shorter series if the team made the playoffs.
The 2022 Mets were largely successful, improving their win total by a whopping 23 games over the 2021 edition and they did make an appearance in the playoffs for the first time since 2016. But, as we all know, the season didn't end the way that any of us wanted.
In hindsight, the problem with the aforementioned idea was the respective ages of our "aces" (mid to late 30's) and if they would be effective/ available when they were needed most. Between both pitchers, they produced the following statistical line; 34 Starts - 209 Innings Pitched - 6.6 WAR (not too shabby).
Oh and they made a total of 78.83 million dollars combined in the process (even if one of them felt underpaid). So, the Mets basically paid through the nose for the equivalent of one full season of "ace level" starts.
***On a side note, Tom Seaver completed 20 seasons during his career and averaged 32.35 starts and 239 Innings Pitched each season, while making a total of 6.67 million dollars! A different era, I know, but he was definitely an "ace" who was effective/reliable and he was underpaid.
So, this got me thinking about how the Mets should construct their starting rotation for 2023, especially since they have so many needs up and down the roster. Do you try to emulate the "two aces" model again (Plan A), or do you spread your resources a bit more evenly (Plan B), so to speak?
In any scenario, you will have Max Scherzer (43.33 million) and Carlos Carrasco (14 million) locking down the first and fourth (?) slots in the rotation. You also have depth options in house with Tylor Megill and David Peterson available. The question becomes what to do with the second, third and possibly the fifth spot?
Plan A would would require expensive free agents transactions as you would sign an ace (DeGrom) and two mid level starters (Bassitt and Walker) from last year's rotation. In short, you would be "running it back" in 2023, but hoping for better health/results compared to 2022. In doing so, you would likely have to spend close to 140 million dollars to retain everyone (including the money already allocated for Max and Cookie).
Or, Plan B would start with using one of Peterson or Megill as your fifth starter, since they are already in house and they have a developing track record (Peterson would be my choice, with Megill as a spot starter or long reliever). Then, you could address the second and third spots in the rotation with the money that Jake would cost by himself (45 million, give or take).
The rotation in this thought experiment would cost around 100 million dollars. In short, do you pay Jake a huge sum or do you break that down into two or three pieces to address the multiple vacancies?
Consider the following free agent pitchers and their approximate annual cost moving forward (not an exhaustive and the salaries are estimates from on line chatter);
Nathan Eovaldi (17 million), Tyler Anderson (18 million), Jameson Taillon (14 million), Martin Perez (16 million), *Taijuan Walker (14 million), Zach Eflin (13 million), Noah Syndergaard (16 million), Mike Clevinger (12 million).
None of them are as good as Jake has been, but is that guaranteed if he returns? Would mixing and matching two or three of the listed pitchers be a better use of the money Jake is asking for? Would the rotation be much deeper and more available, which in turn helps the bullpen, etc? Would the money saved be better used on finding a couple of "power" arms to help fill out the bullpen?
A lot of questions, I know and it's not a straight forward answer.
I still think the best path forward is to make a Qualifying Offer (QO) to Jacob DeGrom so you can recoup some draft capital when he rejects the listed offer and signs elsewhere (Texas?), in order to be closer to home. I also have this gut feeling that he wants to leave and the Mets are simply being used as a bargaining chip for his next contract, but that just might be my Mets' PTSD talking.
***Side note #2, Arlington, TX (where the Rangers play) is actually a few miles farther away from DeLand, FL (Jake's hometown) then CitiField, but I digress.
I think I could live with a rotation like the one suggested in Plan B, especially if it meant strengthening the bullpen, keeping Brandon Nimmo and potentially adding another bat (Trea Turner) to the lineup.
What do you think?
10 comments:
Nice post.
I still would target this team to 2024 and try to keep the salary in check with the luxury tax
Overspending is killing us in some areas.
Our first pick has been dropped to 1.32
Our QO picks would be AFTER THE 4TH ROUND
For me?
Max, Rodon, Cookie, Peterson, Butto
Lots of good points in this article, and you broke it down very clearly.
I don't believe that deGrom "wants" to leave NY - that is the product of unfounded rumors by media looking for readership. However, I think that the probability is high for the Mets to be out-bid since they have to sign so many other free agents. So plan B will be the reality.
In plan B, we must look to younger pitchers even if they are 'purchased' on the FA market. I would prefer Megill as the 5 starter and Peterson in the bullpen for two reasons. Before his injury, Megill had a real bulldog mentality on the mound. He was unflappable and not afraid to go after anyone, which is great for starting pitchers. Peterson brings a much needed left arm to the bullpen and I think he can be effective in a variety of roles once he gets more accustomed to the relief job.
And speaking of lefties, I really hope we land Rodon in our Plan B execution.
In 2022 the Mets won 101 games. There was little production from about 25% or so of the line-up. (Don't remember the percentage from an earlier article). Improving the production of the DH, third, catcher and the bench is necessary. With last year's pitching staff and these improvements result in more wins? I would venture as yes.
On the pitching side, Scherzer (SP1 last year) and Carrasco ((SP3 last year) are now back. How about trading for and extending Cleveland's Bieber and resigning Bassitt (three years)? Bieber would slot into the SP2. Bassitt would slide down from last year's SP2 to SP3 and Carrasco now to SP4. One of Peterson or Megill (one not included in the Bieber trade) would be the SP5.
A proposed trade for Bieber would include something like Vientos, Maurico and one of Peterson or Megill
The short-term contracts would open spots for the developing pitchers in 2024, 2025 and 2026.
Megill? My brother said he was listening to Todd Zelle and Todd apparently had Megill concerns.
A lot depends on who gets Jake. If it is Texas, fine. Atlanta or Philly? Not fine.
Steve needs to put together a 100 win team. How he does that will be interesting…and costly. I did see something where Eppler was talking about hoping to increase the net runs scored margin, which is another way to say, if Jake leaves, we still have 100 wins as a target.
Steve, like the Bieber proposed deal, and yes, the bottom 25% of the Mets’ hitters (in total at bats) averaged .204, quite a millstone.
The Mets need to be realistic and not be blinded by what Jacob deGrom has been for this team. Facts are facts and if you look at the numbers and what deGrom wants in exchange, the Mets are better off letting him walk.
Since 2020
4-2 68 innings pitched, 2021 7-2 92 innings pitched, 2022 5-4 and only 64 innings pitched. See a pattern?. Is winning 10 games or so while pitching less than 100 innings worth 45M or so?.
Jacob deGrom is my favorite Mets player but the money he wants vs the innings he is pitching doesn't make sense. Let him walk.
Sign Rodon, bring back Bassitt, use Megill as the #5 and find a #4. Take a chance on Wacha?
Find Nimmo and sign him.
Butto? Yeah and let’s start Mangum in center!
Kershaw went 12-3 in 2022, starting 22 games and accumulating a 2.28 ERA. And accepts $20 million, 1 year. But Jake? Not doing 1 year, $20 million.
I like the proposed Bieber deal above, bit I would actually expand it to include Dom Smith to Cleveland and adding a mid level prospect back to the Mets. It would be pretty cool to see a Cleveland infield of Smith, Gimenez, Rosario, and Mauricio from right to left.
Cleveland would be Mets Central and Seattle would be Mets West.
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