Reese Kaplan -- Salvaging the Starting Rotation After deGrom

It's not a new subject nor is the dialog here going to change the minds of people who have already concluded what the Mets should do for a starting rotation in 2023, but here goes anyway...

While the world focuses primarily on the value of Jacob deGrom as he approaches his age 35 season having suffered through various ailments keeping him off the mound and then going through a late season blowout when it comes to pitching quality, I'm going to let the Mets front office and Steve Cohen's bank balance deal with that eventuality.

Today instead we will consider the pitchers who would appear behind deGrom (if retained) and Max Scherzer.  This past season that group included Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco, along with occasional fill-in stints by Tylor Megill, David Peterson and Trevor Williams.  It's important to make this evaluation because at this point Max Scherzer is the only proven starter guaranteed to be back for the upcoming season.  We know about deGrom's opt out, the free agency options for Bassitt and Walker, plus the return or buyout option for Carrasco.

Chris Bassitt is on record stating that accepting a one-year deal vs. going out for a multi-year deal is a case of comparing apples to oranges.  Everyone in his shoes would probably conclude the same thing.  Some are wondering if the trade to bring him to New York is going to fall into that unfortunate category of "one and done" as he departs for the longest range deal available elsewhere.  

Take a look at what Bassitt did for the Mets prior to the end of the year in September and you have to be fairly impressed.  During his Oakland career Bassitt notched a 3.44 ERA used primarily as a starter.  He'd always shown good control and an ability to notch some strikeouts, but wasn't a whiffmaster in the mold of Edwin Diaz.  For the Mets he finished with a 3.42 ERA over 30 starts and produced a 3.41 strikeout to walk ratio.  For that effort he cost a few prospects in trade and $8.65 million in salary.

To read the reports, he's not going to accept a one-year QO deal for $19.65 million and will be looking for something in the range of 3 years and $66 million as a base negotiation starting point.  While an extra $3+ million is not exactly pocket change, when you compare this demand to what similar quality pitchers have gotten it's probably a realistic expectation.  He got started a bit late in his pitching career as a rookie at age 27, so a three year deal would be taking him through ages 35, 36 and 37.  If that's what it's going to take to keep him, then the Mets should probably make the effort as he has not shown any intimidation moving from the smaller Bay area spotlight to the glaring lights of New York.

I hate to sound like a broken record, but you really have to make a serious effort to re-sign Taijuan Walker.  Yes, you can point out his less spectacular second halves of both of his two New York Mets seasons, but take a look at his accomplishments.  For his Mets career he has a 3.98 ERA.  If this was baseball circa 1970, that performance would be getting admonishments, but for today's baseball being under 4.00 is considered good back-of-the-rotation performance.

For the Mets he has earned $17 million, $10 million in 2021, then $7 million in 2022.  His option for 2023 is $6 million or an opt-out.  Considering his season included a 12-5 record with a 3.49 ERA, he's going to feel grossly underpaid if he accepted that number.  The media has him looking for something in the range of 4 years and $56 million, an average annual value of $14 million.  Given his youth and his recent good health, that amount seems reasonable and he did not fade in New York.  

Now for a point of comparison, the third veteran starter, Carlos Carrasco, is slated to earn the same $14 million level assuming the Mets choose to retain him.  On the back-of-the-baseball-card basis, Carrasco is coming off a pretty impressive season.  He finished in a tie with Bassitt with a team leading 15 victories with only 7 losses to Bassitt's 9.  His ERA was higher at 3.97.  

Now when you compare the performance of Carrasco to that of Walker who will be 7 years younger, it's pretty easy to make the case that it's more prudent to secure Walker for the next 4 years than it is to keep Carrasco around for one.  Now some might say with so much uncertainty in the Mets rotation that getting a one-year commitment from Carrasco is a way to minimize the long term capital, but baseball will exist beyond just the 2023 season.

As far as the substitute starters go, you would think that both Megill and Peterson will have the chance to audition for a starting role if one or more of the above wind up leaving on a jet plane.  If not, then they would likely convert to relief pitchers, a role which is new to both of them and thus far with mixed results.  Journeyman Trevor Williams might be better served as a starting pitcher than either of the two homegrown youngsters, but he too is a free agent for the upcoming season.  

The front office will surely be looking at both trades and free agent options to fill the rotation if vacancies do indeed happen in the starting rotation.  However, with the need to retain Edwin Diaz, perhaps Adam Ottavino and Brandon Nimmo on the agenda as well, there's a limit to how much the club is going to want to spend for newcomers.  Billy Eppler for the most part got a passing grade for his first year in New York.  Without Sandy Alderson looking over his shoulder in this offseason he's going to sink or swim on his own.  That could be very good or very bad.  We root for more offseason Eppler and less midyear Eppler.