Averages can skew reality
As Reese Kaplan presented scenarios for starting pitchers this AM, Reese quoted ERAs of a few of the candidates. Taijuan Walker, he noted, had a 3.98 ERA in his two Mets seasons.
But in his case, it was 90% strong, 10% disaster. That is, in five of his starts in the past two years he threw a total of 15 innings and surrendered 31 earned runs.
In his 54 other Mets outings, spanning 301 innings? A 3.26 ERA.
Cookie Carrasco? Same deal. 3.86 ERA. Mediocre.
But his 4 worst starts? 18 innings, 32 hits and 22 earned runs.
The other 25 outings? 3.00.
So, to me, I will take the guy with a low 3’s ERA in 90% of his outings who gets shellacked the other 10%, rather than a guy with few bad starts but few good ones, too. The latter sort of hurler will probably win less and lose more.
Another average Brennan article. I hope you have an above average day.
11 comments:
90% ain't bad in my book
Mack, those 2 fellas were 27-12 in 2022. Love that offense!
Ray I agree, be strong in 90% of your starts, and if you otherwise stink, that’s OK.
I think Walker and Carrasco would be a reasonable expectation for the #3 and #4 slots next year.
Obviously, Max will be near or at the top and we have a group of younger guys for the back end of the rotation, and for depth.
So, do you keep Jake? I, for one, will be glad when that decision is made (admittedly, I don't have a ton of patience, but that story line is getting old for me).
If not, then maybe add a couple younger starters for comparable money? Go all out for Rodon?
A deep rotation is great during the long regular season, but you still need a couple aces for when the playoffs start (unless that plan backfires, of course).
I’d move on from Jake. Fragile, and somehow, not enough wins.
I did see the Mets are very interested in Trea Turner. I’d like that more than a Brinks Truck for a fragile pitcher.
Don't need a second baseman when you have McNeil and Mauricio after the ASB
Wow,Turner sounds great to me. McNeil plays LF, Mauricio preps At Triple A in the OF.
Trea plays CF so that's an option too and love the speed at the top.
TB:
I always try to keep things simple myself. The Mets need a stronger/healthier top three starters. I personally like the idea (if attainable) of 1. Scherzer 2. Bieber 3. Rodon. I also think that it is time to seriously rethink a six-man rotation for here, mainly because of all the arm breakdowns the past few years. Maybe that one more day off of rest could keep pitchers on the mound and starting?
So for me, I might consider three and not just two of the following arms already here for the 4-6 spots. The list is: 1. Taijuan Walker 2. Carlos Carrasco 3. David Peterson 4. Tylor Megill. Butto to me is a second half consideration because right now he kind of lacks a track record.
At the DH: I'd replace Vogelbach with a DH who can hit both for power and a decent batting average. Maybe Ronnie Mauricio.
At LF: I'd abstain from getting anyone from outside the organization here as well. This team likes to go outside maybe a bit too much in the past. I'd seriously consider either Jake Mangum or Mark Vientos for left. Best ST player grabs it.
Why go younger?
Because the first half of any season really does not mean "absolutely everything" to a MLB team. The trick first half to me is just staying within 5 games of the leader team at the AS break. If closer or the lead team then fine, but it isn't everything. Best recent example of this to me are the Atlanta Braves 2022.
So play the younger "possible future stars" first half. Allow them enough time to grow their feet under them. Then see where you stand with each. A GM may surprise themselves by doing so and see the merit to this approach.
Mauricio has solid power. All arms. Strong. Kind of hits like a left handed batting George Foster did. While Vientos hits homeruns like it's nothing, just smooth, gone goodbye. While Mangum can sort of do it all. All around athleric type. All three are positively long term MLB players who excel.
And add in here Daniel Palka for a possible DH roster place on this team in 2023. Awesome stroke, awesome power. Has MLB experience too. Something to consider.
The Mets have a half blank canvas 0 the world is Steve Cohen's oyster
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