Reese Kaplan -- More Math Concepts for Baseball Success

On Wednesday we took a look at some of the math that goes into the business decisions being made in baseball.  No, it's not the total number of home runs or strikeouts or saves or stolen bases.  

It is the analytical undercover work that helps identify performance execution, performance potential and performance deficiencies that will inevitably lead to roster expansion and contraction decisions.  Today let's instead look at some of the more understandable and familiar baseball statistics to determine if they indeed make the most sense as the way of building a team to contend for the postseason.  

As a great example, let's go back to examine the 2019 Rookie of the Year performance by Pete Alonso.  Save for one unnamed (and likely Atlanta-based voter), Pete Alonso received 29 of 30 first place nods for his incredible first season in the major leagues.  He finished with a respectable .260 average, but that's not what got him the award.  He hit a new record 53 home runs, drove in 120, maintained a .358 OBP that was accompanied by a truly incredible .583 slugging percentage.  He was, is and continues to be a remarkable slugger and run producer.

Now to hear many baseball fans tell the tale, that's what you need to become a contender and get to the World Series.  Really?  If you check your standings for 2019 while the Mets did indeed have a winning record (something of a rarity for them for the past several years), they finished the year 86-76 in third place, 11 games behind those pesky Atlanta Braves.

Then there are the pitching-oriented fans who grew up on the likes of Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman and other impressive arms who will contend that the secret to success is having a dominant hurler on the mound.  In fact, in that same year of 2019 Jacob deGrom won his second straight Cy Young Award after going 11-8 with a 2.43 ERA with a league leading 255 strikeouts in just over 204 IP.  

Perhaps even more eye popping was his streak of five straight seasons with a WHIP rating under 1.00 meaning he was allowing less than one baserunner per inning pitched.  

So having that kind of starting pitching is the key to October baseball, right?  Well, as stated in the brief glimpse at Pete Alonso, the Mets finished out of contention.  Bear in mind that deGrom was not a one-man show.  He was accompanied by Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz.  So pitching alone is obviously not the answer either.  

I'm not going to delve stat-by-stat into defense, relief pitching, batting average nor stolen bases.  The fact is that it takes a combination of effort from the whole team to advance in the standings.  That concession brings us to where we are now in planning for the future.  

Think back for awhile about how valuable role players and starters who were not All Stars became not just for the Mets but for any other team seeking World Series glory.  

If that line of thinking doesn't resonate with you, then consider how you would go about playing the game of fantasy baseball.  Many folks go into that hobby bidding most of their budget for two or three amazing players only to discover that they were stuck filling in the rest of the roster with the leftovers no one else wanted.  

I took a different approach, always looking for the 20 HR/80 RBI type of hitter knowing they wouldn't cost a fortune and also realizing that an injury wouldn't be nearly as devastating as losing one of those top 2 or 3 players would be.

So in planning for the 2023 season and beyond, should the Mets go for only the top tier free agents and trade candidates to get one or two difference makers?  While there is some validity to having a year-after-year All Star on your team, the fact is that the Mets were facing 50% of their roster eligible to leave via free agency.  

Consequently finding the best starting pitcher or two, the best hitter or the best middle reliever isn't by itself going to help the team do better than they finished in 2022.  

Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler have been vocal about a five year plan and it's highly unlikely that the details include getting the best of the best regardless of cost year after year.  

It is about finding a way to complement the difference makers with a stellar supporting cast who make it easier for them to perform at an optimal level.  

No one knows exactly what will come out of the San Diego meeting that starts on Sunday, but having uncertainty is not necessarily a bad thing.