12/7/22

Reese Kaplan -- Welcome to Rule 5 Draft Day!


Mack, Tom and others on the site are who I would normally refer to as the minor league and prospect gurus compared to me.  I follow the Mets minor leagues with interest but know that it's a long road and a difficult climb from great performance in A, AAA or even AAA to replicate it in the majors.  

Sometimes you are caught by pleasant surprise when an unprotected player like Jeff McNeil flourishes and wins the 2022 NL Batting title.  Other times you have people who you were sure were going to be a star only, like Dominic Smith, wind up being released.  

Today is the end of the winter meetings which coincide with the annual exercise of the Rule 5 Draft.  For folks needing a refresher, teams are looking at the possibility to procuring players left unprotected on other clubs to take a place on their own 40-man roster.  In the case of the Mets, they have quite a few available spots there, but it is a little more involved than simply plucking a would-be major league player and declaring victory.  


The Rule 5 draftee must stay on the major league team's roster for the entire season.  The club making the selection must pay the other team $100,000.  A drafted player can be demoted, but must go through the waiver process and can be offered back to the team that lost him for $50,000.  

If they do not want to pay for his return and no other club makes a waiver claim, then this player can be assigned to the minors.  Of course, a team can work out a trade for the player's full rights which includes the ability to demote a player without subjecting him to waivers.  There's a minor league Rule 5 portion, but for today we'll only look at the one for the majors.  

Many sites (ours included) have identified various players who could be worth consideration in this movement from another team.  The Mets draft in the 22nd position but do hold quite a few openings.  Whether they fill them with free agent contracts or Rule 5 drafts, they are one of the more open teams looking to expand their roster. 

For the Mets, the needs are well known.  They need need starting pitching, relief pitching, spare outfielders and other bench pieces.  The issue of staying with the parent club the full season is likely the biggest obstacle preventing more player movement from happening, but there are some interesting names to consider.  


One name who should be on the Mets' list of possibilities is a sidearmer in the Baltimore Orioles organization named Nolan Hoffman.  Going back to the Jeff Innis and Chad Bradford days, the Mets have benefited from guys who throw at an odd angle with minimal stress on the arm.  

Hoffman is in that mold, having struck out 17 in 12 inning in Arizona while simultaneously leading the league with just 1.5 walks per 9 IP.  Good strikeout numbers, excellent control, weird delivery and a lot of openings in the Mets bullpen would suggest that not every relief pitcher has to throw 100 mph to be effective.  


The other pitchers worth considering have been starters and are much more ballyhooed than Hoffman.  The Astros have a righthander turning 26 in 2023 named Jayden Murray whose numbers in the minors are a bit light in terms of the number of games played, but they're hard to ignore.  

He is 17-10 over three minor league seasons with a 2.80 ERA, fanning 8.9 over 9 IP and walking just 2.2.  Those numbers make David Peterson and Tylor Megill look like pikers, though they have each done work in the majors already while Murray has not.


The Red Sox have a similar player named Thad Ward who is also turning 26 next season.  He possesses an 8-10 record with a 2.53 ERA over 51 starts.  He strikes out nearly 11 per 9 IP but like many hard throwers struggles with his control, walking 3.9 over that same span.  I'm wondering if he might be someone better suited for late innings than starting.


The last pitcher worth a look is a starter turned reliever with the Phillies named Erik Miller.  He's posted some very nice numbers in his minor league career, including a 2-1 record and a 2.51 ERA over 48 games.  His strikeout numbers are eye-popping -- 12.1 per 9 IP -- but the walks are alarming at 5.1.  

The 6'5" lefty reminds me on paper of former flamethrower for the Mets organization, Jack Leathersich.  (A quick reminder, in 2013 he fanned 15.7 per 9 IP but walked 6.9).  


The only offensive player who looked worth a flyer is this year's version of Travis Jankowski -- a fringe outfielder who has potential.  Now the Mets knew exactly what they were getting with the veteran former Met.  

However, the Astros have a formerly fringe player named Corey Julks who didn't do much of anything until making a radical swing adjustment which gave him standout performance in AAA (albeit the PCL version of it).  Last season Julks batted .270 while slamming 31 HRs, driving in 89 and stealing 22 bases.  

He's turning 27 for the 2023 season so it's not as if he's going to be a late blooming regular, but as a right handed bench piece who wouldn't rather see him here than Darin Ruf?

It will be interesting to see what all happens with the Mets in the traditional free agent signing and trades that get their initiation during the Winter Meetings, but it's also going to generate some chatter about what minor leaguers on other teams might actually become a part of the New York major league roster.  

19 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

I would imagine weaker teams will pick first and most likely, any players worth picking will have been picked.

Maybe one of those pitchers will be to the Mets' liking.

I like to look at Fangraphs to see their statistical opinion for 2023 on prospects. After watching the PCL Mets call ups, except Nimmo, do nowhere near as well hititng-wise with the Mets as in the PCL back in the Vegas days, Jults hitting just .270 in the PCL still feels like .170 at the MLB level, off the cuff.

Fangraphs does not show him projecting out to have any MLB ABs in 2023. Now, if he can even up that 50 points, no small task, he might be reserve OF capable with his power.

Our exposed guy, Jake Mangum, Fangraphs projects to get into 13 MLB games in 2023 and hitting .247. I guess the Mets are gambling no one snatches him. He did have back issues that hurt his 2022 playing time, unlike Ronny Mauricio, who is up to 163 games (minors and winter) this year, and counting.

The injury prone Jake has played in just 156 games in the last 2 years. Jeff McNeil missed a ton of time in 2017 and 2018 with injuries, then exploded in 2019 in the minors and majors.

Maybe Jake gets passed over and similarly explodes in 2023.

After all, we can't lose TWO Jakes in a week, can we? I don't know if I can handle that much re-Jake-shun.

D J said...

Reese,
The Mets pick is scheduled at 22nd, however teams ahead of the Mets who have 40 already on their rosters will not pick. A team can also pass on their selection,so we may can get an earlier pick than 22nd. I would like to see us find someone than could help us in 2023.

Mack Ade said...

I used to look forward to days like today becuase the Mets could add people that will strengthen their team.

That was when they were a lousy team.

Steve has created a financial problem going forward (are you allowed to say Steve and financial problem in the same sentence?). His bloated contracts to 5 players have created a need to fill in his roster with team controlled players.

All I hope out of this draft are two potential relievers.

Tom Brennan said...

We did sign Sean Reid Foley, and Tommy Hunter yesterday. Some fringe filler that is better than some other fringe filler they have on tap in the minors.

D J said...

Reese,
MLB.com says the Mets pick at 27, my mistake. There are several teams with 40 already so that pick could be earlier than 27.

Gary Seagren said...

Tom on the Two Jakes maybe Jack Nicholson will have something to say about that. Does anybody know why Eppy didn't QOer Walker? The Phils just jumped into the #1 spot over the Brovos in my opinion so Stevie Eppy and Co. have alot of work to do and we have to hope at least 2 of our low cost prospects make it big and at this point we have to get Senga and go from there.

Reese Kaplan said...

The tough part of Rule 5 is keeping the guy on your roster for the full seasoon. I could see a spare outfielder doing that or perhaps a relief pitcher but starting pitchers are not likely to last.

bill metsiac said...

I agree that the "keep all year" rule is a downer. But if someone could be somewhat useful for 3-4 months while we give someone else some AAA time to show readiness for a callup, that might be worth the small cost.

bill metsiac said...

Speaking of minor league and prospect gurus, whatever happened to John From Albany, who used to provide useful info on the above areas? I miss his articles

Anonymous said...

John from Albany,are you in SD.

bill metsiac said...

Getting back to Rule 5, does it make sense to take someone else's reject or someone like Castro, who can be sent upstate?

Anonymous said...

Good Reese article today

I concur on the sidewinder idea for a possible addition here to the Mets bullpen. However, they have to be effective and not just a sidwinder. Because we have seen those type of guys here before as well.

I also like the Brooks Raley and Jose Quintana lefty pitcher signings of recent. It adds the left-handed depth this team has needed.

On Mets' centerfield

The Kevin Kiermaier numbers just do not jump off the table for me. Nor do the other more veteran type outfield players that have been mentioned on other sites. So if Nimmo bolts like everyone else has the past two seasons, I am hoping that the NY Mets will seriously reconsider Jake Mangum for CF.

Some will point to Jake's back injury as a concern to getting him re-signed here. But from what I have read online, his spinal injury is not prohibitive going forward. I just really like Jake's skill set. Plus, he is one of our own and definitely in the Brandon Nimmo mold.

Jake is 26, has a combined MiLB .284 BA, steals bags, plays a terrific CF defensively, is fast as lightning, and does not cost a zillion dollars a season to play here.

If the Mets cannot re-sign Brandon Nimmo, which is quite possible, I would prefer them getting Jake Mangum in CF for 2023 rather than another teams older sort of castoff CF who is just plain average.

Simply put, the Mets outfield should not at all be a problem in 2023.

The Mets already have Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Jeff McNeil ready for the Mets 2023 outfield. There is also a realistic possibility that either Mark Vientos or Ronny Mauricio could be converted to LF if the team wants to, to get them into games right out of the shoot. Both their bats would be beneficial in the lineup since both have decent power and can hit for average as well.

Who am I still wishing for here?

Kodai Senga

In my watching of his pitching videos, he looks like a real deal future All-Star. This guy has it all. Gorgeous to die for mechanics, a wickedly good splitter and a four-seam 96-101 mph fastball which tails down.

With this Kodai Senga guy in the fold starting, we will have Mazel tov!

Anonymous said...

On the big contract player signings Mack Ade mentioned above.

There exists in both MiLB and MLB certain positions that appear to be easier to find a greater abundance of players for. Middle infielders fall under this category heading, second and shortstop more specifically.

Why is that? Perhaps it is two fold.

The DR seems to mass produce middle infielders, despite most of them wanting to become homerun hitters instead of batting average ones, or so I have noticed.

Secondly, shortstops can easily convert to second base in the case of a logjam at the shortstop position. For these middle infielders, it is always about being a truly decent glove but also a really solid BA batter. There just seems to be a glut of these players every season.

What I am saying here.

Simply that I just do not see why any team would long term contract too many middle infielders, unless that middle infielder was absolutely off the chart great like we have seen here since Jose Reyes. But some other teams out there do that.

The other position in MLB that comes to mind of late, is at the catcher position.

The era of a lot of great catchers (circa the 1980's especially) is to me long over with. But if your organization should luck into finding a great one within your MiLB organization, do tie him up with a bigger contract because todays kids just do not seem overly enthused about playing the catcher position anymore.

And be careful also with early on in their careers arm injury starters. Our entire pitching staff from 3 years ago (or more) has left now. All the brightest arms that this organization had ever seen assembled at one time is basically now in Philadelphia. Although I do say this half kiddingly for affect. But they all have been lessened by their injuries here prior, for the most part, and may or may not ever be as good as we saw them in their time with these NY Mets. i.e. Matt Harvey. Man, he sure was something awesome to watch pitch earlier on in his Mets career. Hard to imagine that sort of success could ever just go away.

D J said...

The Mets selected Zach Greene, RHP, from the Yankees.
They did not lose any players in the major league round.
They lost Trey Cobb, Pitcher, in the AAA round.

Mike Freire said...

Not too bad........I was hoping Jake Mangum would make it through, so he could be a depth option (4th or 5th OF'er) in 2023. As stated above, with the imbalanced salary structure we are creating, cheaper guys to fill in the cracks will be valuable.

Tom Brennan said...

We didn't get Judge from Yanks, but we did get ridings (earlier) and Zach Greene (today) - we done good.

Mangum not picked? Pleasantly surprised.

TexasGusCC said...

Mangum wasn’t drafted but was sent to the Marlins after the draft to complete last month’s trade. Not thrilled about losing Mangum but, at least Eppler didn’t trade pitching as they ought to do and you got two controllable pitchers so you have to give up something decent.

Now let’s see if Eppler can get three young controllable arms for Ruf, whom he is trying to trade…

Anonymous said...

There are other solid Japanese starters out there beyond Kodai Senga. One I like is righty Rōki Sasaki. 21 years old, a solid splitter and a 100 mph fastball ain't chopped liver.

bill metsiac said...

No love here for Megill?