2/22/23

Reese Kaplan -- How to Win a No-Win Argument


Every now and then a good argument evolves between fellow Mets fans about what the club has done right vs. what they have done wrong. This topic could obviously take a great many circuitous paths with emotion often overwhelming statistics and logic. Today, however, brought up a good subject about which each side had legitimate claims to be right.


Suppose I introduced a player to you who has had 1244 big league at-bats which have had their cumulative ups and downs. He is a career .246 hitter (which is obviously nothing to brag about). His long ball capability is erratic but in those two-plus accumulated seasons if he was a full time player he would have averaged 23 HRs and 90 RBIs. That's pretty commendable run production, yet after parts of six seasons at Citifield he was never given a full time job.


Then there was another ballplayer whose career exposure is pretty similar. He's logged 1305 at-bats but merely achieved the cringe-worthy level of a career .218 batting average. His power is most definitely for real, having clubbed 67 HRs and driven in 190 over that more-or-less equal period of time.

What is fascinating about the second player is that he earned a cumulative 1.4 in WAR for what he has done (including that .218 batting average). The first player who had a reputation for stellar defense only has racked up a 0.2 WAR for his superior .246 career average.

So we come back to Side A and Side B. Many felt that the first player out of the New York media spotlight (and capable of playing his natural position of first base) will now flourish supporting a cast on what's projected to be a last place team. Side B advocates point out that using a flawed hitter properly in a platoon role can result in much higher productivity than as a regular, and thus is more valuable to the team.

Oh yeah...when Side A's player became a free agent he last earned just shy of $4 million for what he did. Side B's player whose performance metrics are superior now earns $1.5 million.


A hefty prize awaits the people who correctly identify the first player as former Met Dom Smith and the second one as current and newly slimmed down Met Daniel Vogelbach.


Where the Vogelbach fans truly trumpet his achievements both working the counts and pumping the long balls while correctly positioned as a lefty-against-righty platoon DH.

I'm not really sure where the Smith supporters clamor about heralding his lack of achievement except to excuse him for having had injuries, first base blocked by Pete Alonso and learning outfield on the fly while resembling Todd Hundley out there.

No one here is jumping up and down celebrating having Vogelbach taking the majority of the DH at bats instead of the club having gone out to sign a switch hitter or veteran capable of doing well against both righties and lefties. 


In a way this debate is kind of like taking a strong position of advocating for long leftover sausages, just as likely to have you enjoy them as they are in making you sick.

9 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Personally, my interest is piqued by Vogelbach this year. He claims to have lost 20-25 pounds, but to me, he looks to have lost more. I saw a video of him walking into the park this week. From the side, his chest stuck out more than his midsection, so I am guessing his loss of weight is closer to 40 pounds.

Which could really make a difference. He hit well enough for the Mets in his debut, but he was clearly fat. Not anymore.

Smith was an enigma, wrapped in a conundrum. Glad he is gone, after I was very high on him following his 2020.

Vogelbach has no such issues and should fit in, bring a real, positive vibe, and hit fine, and hopefully, will go from very slow in 2022 to fairly slow in 2023. He will never be an average speed guy. That's OK if the weight loss makes his bat dangerous vs. righties. Rusty Staub was a slow poke, too. He did fine.

Reese Kaplan said...

So were a great many first basemen, catchers and pitchers. Does Bartolo Colon ring a bell?

Mack Ade said...

Frankly, I was a big fan of Dom but I too won't miss him. I wish him well.

As for Voggie, I never liked the move.

There are plenty of talented new kids that can do this job.

As for.slowest Met ever, never was there a slower runner than ex-Dodger catcher and 60s Mets PC, Rube Walker.

Ernest Dove said...

The platoon idea on roster flopped badly last year. Here's to hoping it works this time. Although I'm still not seeing how it makes sense to roster Vogey, Ruf and Pham on the same team.

Woodrow said...

Just a hunch,just a feeling,I think Vogelbach has a huge first half. Lost weight,no shift, a half a year in he’s going to mash batting behind BigPete.

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, I think Vogie pleasantly surprises in his final season as a Met. He is still cheap at $1.5 million. Tradable, too. Yanks ought to like him with that porch. I too want the kids, but Vogie is a bridge to them pushing him aside. This team wants to ease the kids in. We all wish that happened faster.

Tom Brennan said...

Ernest, they had a lot of sump dwellers last year, a subject I write on in the weeks ahead.

Rds900 said...

I hope Vogie looks good so we can fetch something decent when we trade him.

Woodrow said...

Who replaces Vogelbach,especially if he is hitting? He’s cheap,he’s always hit righties, if he produces he’s going no where.