Verlander/Max ERA Analysis, Jett, Kodai, Alvarez, Alonso
I found something interesting online this week.
We have heard that the Mets have considered going to a 6-man rotation in 2023 as a way of keeping their aging rotation pieces both fresh and uninjured. Remember, they are all over 30 years old.
Here’s a look at both Justin Verlander and Max Schertzer’s ERA’s, seperated by the days of rest they had last year between starts:
Verlander
4 days rest 5 starts 0.90 ERA
5 days rest 16 starts 2.47 ERA
6+ days rest 7 starts 0.63 ERA
Scherzer
4 days rest 9 starts 2.34 ERA
5 days rest 10 starts 2.26 ERA
6+ days rest 4 starts 2.25 ERA
No difference for Max, but it looks like Justin could go either way.
The Athletic - Keith Law picks one player who’s ‘next’ for every team -
New York Mets: Jett Williams, SS
Williams is the obvious choice here as a first-round pick who could rocket up industry lists just by proving the hit tool is what we think it is.
Mack - Love Law-love for Williams. I expect a banner year from him in 2023 at two levels.
The players with the most to prove in '23 -
Mets: RHP Kodai Senga
The Mets took a risk in signing Senga to a five-year, $75 million contract despite questions about his physical state, so they have a vested interest in making sure this marriage works. Early in camp, Senga was still feeling out issues such as the larger, slicker American baseballs, the steeper mound slope and the transition to stateside culture. Mets officials are confident that Senga, a Nippon Professional Baseball star, can thrive in New York, but he’ll need to prove it every time he takes the mound.
Kodai Senga’s work at Driveline helping him in first spring training with Mets -
Sitting at his locker inside the Mets clubhouse on Wednesday, Kodai Senga twirled a baseball. He has spent a lot of time over the last few months with a baseball in his hand. After pitching 11 years in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Senga needed to get used to MLB’s slicker, slightly larger baseballs. In Japan, the seams are bigger, which can lead to easier manipulation.
When Senga showed up at Driveline Baseball in Kent, Wash., for the first time in November, lead throwing trainer Brandon Mann gave him a batch of balls and told him, “Only throw these balls going forward. Never touch an NPB ball again.”
Mann, a former pitcher for the Rangers who also spent three seasons in Japan, accessed data from Senga’s games in Japan for a better understanding of what Senga’s pitch shapes would look like. Mann also researched how other pitchers’ shapes evolved after moving to Japan or after coming to the United States. To help Senga in the weeks to come, Mann first needed to know what his fastball shape would look like and how his splitter would play off that.
Unbeknownst to Mann at that point, Senga had already devoted time last year to feeling out balls from the major leagues, fully understanding the gravity of the adjustment.
Mack - I really didn’t realize that the size and design of Japanese baseballs were different than the ones used in the majors. I knew they were different in school, but not over there.
16. Francisco Álvarez, Mets
Age: 21
B: R T: R HT: 5-10 WT: 233
WAR: 0.0
Slash line: .167/.286/.500 OPS+: 121
HR: 1 RBI: 1 SB: 0
FRM: 0.0 DRS: 0 CS: 0%
Álvarez is the Mets’ top prospect and he’s going to develop into a middle-of-the-order masher. His bat is major-league-ready, but for now, he’s better suited for DH. He’ll probably start the season at Triple A so he can continue to develop his defense and game calling. But when the defense arrives, he’ll be in the big leagues and should be one of the best offensive catchers in the sport. I think he’ll eventually be in the top five of this list.
Mack - So… this dude is the 16th best catcher in the majors and he hasn’t caught one pitch there yet. That’s amazing.
Look for these 5 guys to lead MLB in homers -
Pete Alonso, Mets
2022 total: 40
Pop quiz, hot shot: Which player has hit the most homers in baseball over the past four years? Duh, it’s the Polar Bear, who has smashed 146 -- including a rookie-record and MLB-high 53 in 2019 -- a total that is nine more than Judge's 137. Alonso has also averaged a whopping 46 dingers per 162 games and he's dropped his strikeout rate from 26.4% in his debut season to 18.7% last year. Oh, and the two-time Home Run Derby champ still has the ability to hit the ball as hard as just about anyone (see: 116.5 mph max exit velo from 2022).
Another key factor to consider? Unlike Judge and Trout, who were selected first and second in this “draft,” Alonso has had no issues with injury. In fact, he’s played 530 out of a possible 546 games in his four seasons -- a mark that ranks third in the big leagues during that time. As he enters his age-28 season, Alonso has the power, the past production and the durability to capture the home run crown again.
Mack - I agree. I think Pete is going to have an incredible 2023, with an outside chance of winning the league’s MVP.
10 comments:
Back when he came to El Paso as part of the Las Vegas 51s he had a frustrating four-game series in which he didn't get a hit, but fielded his position admirably and you could see the nervousness in the opposing pitchers every time he stepped up to the plate. Sometimes the stories are not in the box scores but in what impact a player has in his reputation and performance prior to and after the AB in question.
Pete is not a dead pull hitter. He may park 2-4 just over that shortened right-center field fence.
If he stays healthy, that will help him surpass 40.
I think Lindor, McNeil, Nimmo, Vogie, and Baty/Escobar will like it, too.
Vientos and Alvarez also like hitting balls out to R-C field.
IMO, most MLB teams would have Alvarez on their opening day roster.
Senga the Friendly Ghost.
Reese -
I don't miss the Mets playing in Vegas
Pitcher nightmare
Tom
I still can't sign off on the Mets contracting two dead bats for the behind the plate duties.
I too would have played Alvy.
I say let's make him the day one starter
I would not dismiss the 6 man rotation too quickly. Even though our two aces don't have a significant change in ERA related to days of rest, the additional days off and lower game count equates to better arm health over the course of the season. Last year Max lost something at the very end even though he said he was healthy. And in addition, when Max pitched for LA in the previous season he suffered from a tired arm and did not impact the playoffs. I like the 6 man idea, and we have the horses to do it in Megill and Peterson.
Hmmm,6 man rotation? That means 15 less starts for Max,Verlander and Senga!
I see more the old guys getting a day off or a start skipped every so often.
I remember the Mets, led by PC Rube Walker, becoming pioneers in switching from 4-man to 5-man rotations. It worked for them then, and hopefully going to a 6-man can work for the current team.
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