The “Baby Mets” is a favorite moniker that has been put on the first batch of Mets prospects to come up in 2022. The group included Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, and Mark Vientos. Ronny Mauricio really belongs in that group as well, though he did not see MLB action until 2023.
Fans were very excited last year when Baty, then Alvarez first came up because those two were having strong seasons in the minors. With the success that rival Atlanta had with some of their call-ups like Michael Harris Jr., Vaughn Grissom, and some guy named Strider there was reason to believe that our Baby Mets would do the same.
Not so fast. Baty and Alvarez both had initial success, but over time both spent time in considerable slumps. Baty slumped so bad that he was sent back down this year for the month of August. Vientos has also struggled, hitting at a much lower average and with significantly less power than he was in AAA.
Before you assume that this is just a failing of the Mets’ development system, let us level set. Not everyone that performs well in AAA will excel in MLB. It is the same at every level throughout the minors – stars at one level have their weaknesses exposed at the next, and they either adapt or fall to the side. This is why there is so much money and time invested in player development – it is really hard to identify the gems that will find success in the major leagues.
This year seems a little different because of the extent of the struggles. It appears that there is a larger gap between AAA and the majors. There are a couple reasons that may explain the difference because they make it easier to hit.
1) The strike zone in AAA is ruled by the automated ball-strike system (ABS), otherwise known as the robo-umpire. Balls and strikes are determined electronically through an array of sensors that monitor a two-dimensional rectangle located at the center of home plate. Those calls are relayed to an earpiece worn by the home plate umpire. The strike zone is not a subjective “letters to knees” like MLB, but a mathematical zone that represents an average ballplayer’s height. Since the balls and strikes are more consistent and tailored to an average frame, players can use more plate discipline to pass on those pitches that used to be “too close to let go” and swing at better pitches to hit.
2) The quality of pitching is down. This is an opinion more than a scientific fact, but the minors are loaded right now with players that were selected because they can throw a ball faster or with a higher spin rate than everyone else. The “art” of pitching – changing eye levels, making batters chase unexpected pitches, varying speed to force weak contact – is not in abundance. Those that master it are pitching in the majors. Those that don’t are in AAA trying to learn it.
3) Less fielding range. Except for some very exceptional players that will be promoted to the major leagues, the average fielder at AAA has somewhat less range and fielding skill than the average fielder at the MLB level. So it stands to reason that some balls put into play in the minors are hits that would be outs in MLB.
The other intangible is just the confidence level. Confidence soars when the hits are coming and batters are much more relaxed at the plate when they are confident. After the jump to the majors, when those borderline pitches are called strikes and you have to swing at much less “hittable” pitches, the success rate plummets along with confidence. Then it is a troubled mind they take to the plate and the results are what you see in the extended slumps of our prospects.
So with a bigger gap there is a longer adjustment period and we are living through that now. I am pleased to see a lineup with many Baby Mets in it so they can work through the adjustments and be all the better for next year. Until then the experience will remain painful.
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Speaking of Baby Mets, here are details of interest from today’s MLBTR:
“The Cubs are calling up top outfield prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. He’s expected to be activated prior to tomorrow’s game. The Cubs will need to make a 40-man roster move in order to formally select Crow-Armstrong’s contract.
Selected by the Mets with the No. 19 overall pick back in 2020, the now-21-year-old Crow-Armstrong was the headline prospect in the 2021 trade sending Javier Baez and Trevor Williams from Chicago to New York. Crow-Armstrong was already a prospect of note at the time, but his stock has skyrocketed since that swap; he currently ranks 12th on the leaguewide top-100 prospect lists at both Baseball America and MLB.com, while The Athletic’s Keith Law tabbed him 18th and FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen pegs him 23rd.
While he’s long drawn praise as a 70- or even 80-grade defender in center field (on the 20-80 scale), Crow-Armstrong has grown into more power since being traded to the Cubs and now has the look of a potential five-tool center fielder. He’s split the current season between Double-A and Triple-A, turning in a combined .283/.365/.511 batting line with 20 home runs, 26 doubles, seven triples and 37 steals (in 47 tries).
Crow-Armstrong has whiffed a bit more often than the Cubs would prefer to see, punching out at a 25.8% rate against a higher-than-average (but far from elite) 9.2% walk rate. He’s also a 21-year-old facing much older and more experienced competition, so there’s likely some hope that he can continue to polish those bat-to-ball skills and refine his pitch selection as he ages.
The big picture hope for Crow-Armstrong is that he can become the Cubs’ everyday center fielder, holding down that position for the six-plus seasons which they’ll control him via arbitration. In the short-term, however, “PCA” will add a dynamic defender and plus threat on the basepaths as the Cubs push toward a playoff berth. That includes both in the regular season and potentially into October.”
Make me wonder if Eppler really did well at the deadline or did the Mets just overpay by a mile…
Baez was a known commodity. Crow-Armstrong was a prospect. Not all prospects prosper the way Baez did. It was similar to what the Mets got in return for some of their star players leaving mid-year in 2023. It was a steep price but not necessarily an overpay. For a comparison, let me remind you of Jared Kelenic.
Reese, that was a stupid trade too. While I understand your point, the Mets paid down on two of the top pitchers in the league to get what they got. Baez was a strikeout machine not hitting well. Cubs weren’t in a bargaining position. Likewise, Kelenic was an overpay. Cano had a full no trade clause and could block any trade. The Mets insistence on the Mariners paying half the remaining salary gave the Mariners leverage where they didn’t have any. In fact, although Dunn flamed out also, he was the Mets top pitching prospect and that should have been enough with Bautista. Adding in $56MM is what Kelenic cost. Both were stupid trades not from the result perspective but from the approach perspective.
At the time of the Baez trade, he was hitting .248 with a .292 OBP. Two months of that is not worth a #1 pick.
Agree with Gus. I badly want Crow back. Maybe Jett will be our Crow.
Hope our baby Mets succeed. We’ll see.
Jett as our Trea Turner would work.
Promoted to Binghamton
Smart promotion, great playoff experience awaits the Mighty Jett.
Tom, with you there. Would have sent Clifford too for the atmosphere.
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