Paul Articulates – Mind the gap

The “Baby Mets” is a favorite moniker that has been put on the first batch of Mets prospects to come up in 2022.  The group included Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, and Mark Vientos.  Ronny Mauricio really belongs in that group as well, though he did not see MLB action until 2023.

Fans were very excited last year when Baty, then Alvarez first came up because those two were having strong seasons in the minors.  With the success that rival Atlanta had with some of their call-ups like Michael Harris Jr., Vaughn Grissom, and some guy named Strider there was reason to believe that our Baby Mets would do the same.

Not so fast.  Baty and Alvarez both had initial success, but over time both spent time in considerable slumps.  Baty slumped so bad that he was sent back down this year for the month of August.  Vientos has also struggled, hitting at a much lower average and with significantly less power than he was in AAA.  

Before you assume that this is just a failing of the Mets’ development system, let us level set.  Not everyone that performs well in AAA will excel in MLB.  It is the same at every level throughout the minors – stars at one level have their weaknesses exposed at the next, and they either adapt or fall to the side.  This is why there is so much money and time invested in player development – it is really hard to identify the gems that will find success in the major leagues.

This year seems a little different because of the extent of the struggles.  It appears that there is a larger gap between AAA and the majors.  There are a couple reasons that may explain the difference because they make it easier to hit.

1) The strike zone in AAA is ruled by the automated ball-strike system (ABS), otherwise known as the robo-umpire.  Balls and strikes are determined electronically through an array of sensors that monitor a two-dimensional rectangle located at the center of home plate.  Those calls are relayed to an earpiece worn by the home plate umpire.  The strike zone is not a subjective “letters to knees” like MLB, but a mathematical zone that represents an average ballplayer’s height.  Since the balls and strikes are more consistent and tailored to an average frame, players can use more plate discipline to pass on those pitches that used to be “too close to let go” and swing at better pitches to hit.

2) The quality of pitching is down.  This is an opinion more than a scientific fact, but the minors are loaded right now with players that were selected because they can throw a ball faster or with a higher spin rate than everyone else.  The “art” of pitching – changing eye levels, making batters chase unexpected pitches, varying speed to force weak contact – is not in abundance.  Those that master it are pitching in the majors.  Those that don’t are in AAA trying to learn it.

3) Less fielding range.  Except for some very exceptional players that will be promoted to the major leagues, the average fielder at AAA has somewhat less range and fielding skill than the average fielder at the MLB level.  So it stands to reason that some balls put into play in the minors are hits that would be outs in MLB.  

The other intangible is just the confidence level.  Confidence soars when the hits are coming and batters are much more relaxed at the plate when they are confident.  After the jump to the majors, when those borderline pitches are called strikes and you have to swing at much less “hittable” pitches, the success rate plummets along with confidence.  Then it is a troubled mind they take to the plate and the results are what you see in the extended slumps of our prospects.

So with a bigger gap there is a longer adjustment period and we are living through that now.  I am pleased to see a lineup with many Baby Mets in it so they can work through the adjustments and be all the better for next year.  Until then the experience will remain painful.