Paul Articulates – Not in alignment with the lineup

Last night was the 139th game in the Mets’ 2023 season.  It feels like they have used 139 different lineups in those games.  So although it is tough to disagree with last year’s Manager of the Year, this never-managed-a-MLB-club writer is going to disagree with Buck Showalter.

I’m kind of an old school guy when it comes to baseball.  I look at a lineup as a structured way to order your batters to maximize the probability of scoring runs.  So you put the fast guys with high on-base percentage at the top, the powerful RBI guys in the middle, and feather in some of the less productive hitters in a way that you might steal a few runs at the bottom of the order too.  In this way, everyone has a role.  When you hit in the same section of the lineup day after day, you refine the way you deliver that role and over time that becomes very productive.

I don’t see that approach too much in the Mets’ lineups.  They are all over the map.  Last year I think Jeff McNeil hit in every position except clean-up.  Maybe I missed that game.  This year Francisco Alvarez batted second, fifth, seventh, and eighth.  Except for a consistent 1 (Nimmo), 3 (Lindor), and 4 (Alonso) the Mets players don’t seem to know where they will hit until the lineup card is posted.  

Now I understand that there are many factors that go into lineup creation.  One must consider the opposition’s starting pitcher, players’ history against said pitcher, and utilize some lefty-righty strategies to make it harder for relievers to come in with favorable matchups against three or four consecutive batters.  But unless you are the Atlanta Braves with nine home run hitters it really does matter where you put everyone.  Don’t even bring up the Kyle Schwarber situation in Philadelphia – hitting him in the leadoff position with a .196 batting average is more superstition than good lineup management.

Alvarez is fleet for a catcher, but that does not mean he is fast.  Until Tuesday night’s surprise stolen base, he is not to be mistaken for a table setter.  He does not single his way into scoring position like Ronald Acuna.  So why does he have multiple games batting second?  

Daniel Vogelbach has 13 home runs this year.  That is not enough to justify him hitting fifth so that every player behind him has to advance precisely one base on any hit.  Seventh or eighth would be just fine – he could knock in all the guys in front of him with only low average guys behind him.  

Enough of my rant about what I have seen in the Mets lineups this year and last.  It is time for me to put my opinion forth for what they should do and let you be the judge.

1. The leadoff batter has to be a table setter.  Nimmo was good for this position when he was all about OBP, but he has tried to morph himself into more of a power guy lately and has completely abandoned the stolen base.  With Marte still in unknown physical condition, my leadoff choice is Francisco Lindor.  He has admitted his aspirations to become a 30-30 guy, so get on, steal a lot of bases, and when the lineup wraps he can drive in all those guys stuck on base behind Vogey.

2. The second and third batters have to be guys that advance runners.  McNeil is perfect for the second slot because he can poke the ball anywhere he wants to.  He also leads the team in batting average again even in an off year, so he will also be on base for the power guys.  Nimmo bats third if he wants to drive the ball and not steal bases.

3. Clean-up is Pete Alonso’s job.  ‘Nuff said.

4. The five hole is also meant for RBI guys – I like Alvarez when he is out of his slump and DJ Stewart when he is not. 

5. Right now rookie Ronny Mauricio bats sixth in my lineup unless he cools off.  Mauricio can drive the ball to all fields.  He showed some very good power in the WBC and spring training so that gets him loads of RBIs from this slot.

6. Seven-eight are left for the right field and DH.  DJ Stewart has earned a spot in the lineup every day whether he is in right or DH.  Since Mark Vientos is not a proven outfielder, Stewart gets the reps in right. 

7. Ninth: I don’t understand why Brett Baty doesn’t play every day at third now that he is back in New York.  He is the future of 3B on this team until he proves otherwise – play him every day and hit him ninth until he starts raking.  

So there’s my lineup, and it fits the players to the roles they can perform.  There is a good mix of righty-lefty batters so you never get three in a row from the same side.  The players can learn their roles in those positions easily because they have the right skill sets.  When someone gets a day off, there is no need for a complete re-design – just slide a few players around but keep them in consistent roles.