Tom Brennan - 4 “Baby Mets”: Success, or Failure? Binghamton Blues

Our Baby Mets Get No Respect, I Tell Ya

One of our readers recently said about the four Baby Mets that they’ve failed.

What do the facts say? Is that a reasonable assertion?

Well, with about 10 games to go in the season, the median slash line for the 30 MLB teams (rookie and veteran) was .250/.323/.415. 

The 4 baby Mets collectively are below that by a good bit.

But, more pertinent is how they are doing vs. their rookie peers. 

Thru Wednesday Sept. 20:

Ronny Mauricio was at .300, 7th highest for any rookie with 50 or more ABs.

Francisco Alvarez - obviously the best slugging rookie catcher? 

Well….almost.

He has 23 HRs in 362 at bats, but Yainer Diaz of Houston has 23 HRs in 342 at bats. 

Diaz was also hitting 72 points higher…but, keep in mind that Diaz is 25, Alvarez is 21. 

Me? I prefer Alvarez long-term.

Baty was 31st in rookie HRs with 8, and Vientos was 35th with 7. Vientos had done it 130 fewer at bats than Baty’ 316 at bats. 12 of those MLB rookies with more HRs than Baty have hit more HRs in fewer at bats.

Both are hitting better in September, though.

Vientos, Alvarez, and Baty were  84th, 100th, and 105th in rookie batting average, at .226, .215, and .212,  regardless of the number of at bats for other rookies in that top 105. Some above them have had few at bats, Still, their combined .216 average in 866 combined at bats needs to see at least a 25 point jump in 2024, to allow them to be positive, rather than negative, offensive contributors next year.

I think at least .240 overall for that foursome in 2024 is quite reasonable to expect, and hopefully, .250 is within reach, as the MLB entry adjustment period will be largely over as this season is ending.

Walks? Few. Ks? High.

Just 69 walks vs. 262 Ks for Mark, Francisco and Bret, in 864 at bats. That will also undoubtedly improve in 2024. 

Ronny has fanned 16 times and walked 5 in 65 plate appearances, a decent rate so far, but too early to be truly indicative.

The four hitters’ 39 homers in 924 at bats is good, and likely the HRs per at bat will increase for them in 2024, as Mark is starting to hit more, and Baty and Alvarez will likely hit more per at bat, too.

CONCLUSION:

I would not call their output as rookies a failure. I’d term it modest success with clear growing pains, but boding well for the 2024 and beyond future.

Baty, to me, gets a D+, Vientos a C, Alvarez a B+, and Mauricio trending towards a B+. 

And Vientos is passing the jitters phase and getting more dangerous at the plate. His last 50+ at bats, a B/ B+.

I expect much overall improvement from the 4 ex-babies in 2024. 

The break-in period is OVER once this season wraps up.

2024, for the four? 

I anticipate…

More power, lower K rate, higher walk rate, higher averages. At least MLB hitter average from them in 2024.

On the other hand, they all fall far short in 2023 of Corbin Carroll, a sensational Arizona rookie with a .280s average, plenty of pop, and an awesome 50 for 55 in steals. 

Maybe Jett Williams or Drew Gilbert will be the Corbin Carrolls - of 2025.

I do not consider Kodai Senga a rookie, even though he is one technically. 

Kodai has been great.  But he is a veteran.

So Carroll is my NL ROY. 

Without Carroll, Arizona would be falling short of the Wild Card, rather than a plausible Wild Card club, if they don’t falter this week.

BINGHAMTON BLUES:

Binghamton loses game 1 to Erie, 9-6. 

Sweep the next two of this best of 3, or leave feeling Erie.

Jett walked 4 times, Acuna had 2 hits, Gilbert 3 hits (HR, 3 RBI), Parada 3 hits, Jordan 2 hits, Rhylan Thomas his usual 2 hits. 

Schwartz and Jackson each, though, were 0-5, numbing the offense.

Tidwell was strong early, but allowed 4 runs (earned) in 5 innings, with 7 Ks. 

Bullpen was the deciding factor, as it gave up 5 more runs, including 1 run in one inning from the previously unhittable Joander Suarez, who took the L.