Tom Brennan - Some Possible 2024 Mets Relievers

I LOOKED TOWARDS IN-HOUSE PEN OPTIONS IN THE METS MINORS FOR 2024.  

WHAT DID I SEE?

Every team has three subsections of pitching. 

One is your full-time starters, one is your back up starters/relievers, and thirdly is your straight up bullpen arms. 

This year, the Mets used 10 guys as starters. 29 players toed the Mets mound as relievers this year, including some of the 10 who started.  The pen always runs Help Wanted ads.

Hence, most pitchers are not starters or fill-in starters. 

Max and JV and Cookie are gone, and the only 2024 lock starters are Senga and Quintana, thus there is now plenty of audition time for others, and Joey, Butto, Peterson, and to a lesser degree Megill are taking advantage of it and pitching solidly.

Still, outside of the top 4 starters, the other 6 (Carrasco, Peterson, Megill, Lucchesi, Reyes, and Butto) are a combined 17-27, with an ERA well above 5, so that has not been good.

And Lucchesi has been 3-0, 2.2, with the other 5 being 14-27. 

And 14-27 = Oakland.  We can't have Oakland in Queens.

But few pitchers actually start for the Mets each year, and thus most up-and-coming pitchers of quality will have to end up in the bullpen. 

Who are some guys who might fill that role in 2024?

I like high K effective hurlers myself, so who is available in the minors other than the same bullpen retreads used in 2023, who’ve maneuvered the Mets to being #23 in pen ERA at 4.51?

Lefty Nate Lavender is one. 

He’s had a phenomenal 2023 at three different levels, mostly a AAA. Overall, he is 4-2, 2.75, with 81 Ks in 52 innings in 40 outings through September 16. Career 2021-23, he is 10-6, 2.19, 160 Ks in 106 innings, 13 of 14 in saves. That’s pretty darned good. It screams “definite 2024 pen piece.”

Eric Orze, also in his 3rd pro year, had had some doozies this year, but his last 7 innings of 14 K, one hit pitching shows he may finally be pushing through it and improving enough for at least some pen time with the Mets in 2024.

Undoubtedly, Lavender (especially) and Orze have not been called up to keep them off the 40 man roster.

Paul Gervase, although he has just gotten to AA, has had a phenomenal year, with 96 Ks in 57 innings, and his recent 2 perfect innings while fanning all 6 shows his stuff may elevate him rapidly in 2024.

Joander Suarez could become a future starter, but perhaps he follows the Jeurys Familia route to the big leagues in the pen. Familia was a mediocre minors starter, but a fine MLB reliever for several years. Suarez has been having an incredible recent 6 game stretch, mostly in AA, and has fanned about 12 per 9 innings this year.

Dom Hamel is recently dominating AA, and perhaps is a late 2024 rotation addition, but, his high K rate (160 in 124 IP) might target him towards the 2024 Mets pen.

Mike Vasil has cut his teeth in AAA this year, and his growth has been uneven, with an unimpressive 4.73 ERA, so I am not slotting him into the 2024 rotation, but he could achieve bullpen status.

Tyler Stuart was ascending quickly, but is on the AA IL - if healthy, a later-in-2024 pen possibility.  

And Christian Scott is having a fine year, mostly in AA, has 107 Ks in 88 IP, and perhaps his foray to the majors in 2024 will be via the pen route.

Finally, Benito Garcia has impressed, but it is too early to tell; Brendan Hardy, Daniel Juarez, and Wilkin Ramos ditto.

Junior Santos? On the latter, I have real doubts.  He has been unimpressive for years, but is still young.

Maybe Justin Jarvis, who finally pitched better last night in AAA, but has found AAA daunting so far, can sneak in. He has fanned 135 in 115 innings in 2023, but his ERA is 5.07.

Tidwell I see as a straight-up rotation arm, likely in 2025, if not late 2024.

Of course, the Mets have just 2 bona fide starters in Senga and Q for 2024 right now, and my guess is David Stearns will bring in 2 free agent starters, or perhaps one of the two will come in via trade, so from the others who’ve started in 2023, I think Peterson slots in at # 5, while Butto, Megill, and Lucchesi either go or remain back ups/relievers.

My brother never ceases to remind me…the Mets always stock up too few relievers, and end up with many dreadful relievers blowing too many games throughout each season. Killer bullpens get you to the playoffs.

Even with Edwin returning at hopefully 100% in 2024, the pen needs a major shore-up to be competitive.

Maybe Anthony Kay will find his niche as a quality lefty reliever back home on LI, with the Mets.  

LAST NIGHT:

Mets lose 3-2. Losing can equal a superior pick, so I am all in favor of close losses in this September. 

Megill was gritty, which is better than sh...y, but far from pretty.  He fell to 8-8.  He sure racks up decisions.

Ronny Mo continued his success with 2 hits.  Alvarez had a single, a screaming double, and narrowly missed a Citi HR (I prefer fields where that would have been narrowly gone), and Vientos singled and fanned twice in 4 at bats.

Jett and Schwartz were both hitless in AA, but combined for 0-4, sac fly, 2 walks and a HBP, so they still had a positive night.