Reese Kaplan -- Filling the Mets Offensive Gap in 2024

In the recent past the New York Mets were adept at acquiring players in the latter half (or final quarter) of a player's career ostensibly to have a long track record of performance to justify the addition to the roster.  It is a somewhat easier sell for the front office when you can point to a track record of say a player like Carlos Delgado becoming a part of the team as opposed to trying to build a narrative for someone like Mark Canha.  

Naturally, the players most fans and media types are coveting right now are the ones who appear to be close to a Hall of Fame track as their careers come to an end.  JD Martinez is a great example of someone who has numbers to make your eyes pop out.  He has already hit for a career number of .287 with 313 home runs and 997 RBIs.  As he enters that dreaded age 35-40 range of a ballplayer's twilight years, his numbers per season have slowed down a bit.  Having earned 30 WAR for his career is nothing to dismiss, the fact is that in 2022 for the Red Sox his home run total was down to just 16 and his batting average was 14 points below his norm.  He did rebound with power for the pennant winning Dodgers this season, but the average stayed at that same slightly reduced level.  His WAR for 2023 as the season closes is at 2.0, nearly double the 1.1 of the year before.  His salary for the Dodgers this year is a respectable but reduced $10 million which is less than what Mark Canha, Starling Marte and others the Mets have paid who generated far less.  So to hear it told, he's the ideal type of DH for the 2024 season at age 36.

Anyone could sit here and repeat this type of exercise looking at the available free agents who could fit the opening the Mets have for generating offense.  Free agency is, of course, the easiest way to enhance a roster as you sacrifice no one with a future on your current team (or future team) and Steve Cohen is almost uniquely capable of digging deep into his pockets when it makes sense to do so.  Of course, watching what happened in 2023 suggests that older ballplayers are not necessarily the best approach to take.

Rumors are bubbling that after their correspondingly frustrating season the San Diego Padres are looking to reduce payroll in the hopes of reinvigorating the franchise.  While you could go up and down their seemingly impressive bunch of hitters to find someone who could be of great help to the Mets, perhaps the most interesting name out there is playing out his current contract with 2024 being his final year.  Instead of being a grizzled veteran, this time around it's someone who played his current season at the ripe old age of 24.  The man's name is Juan Soto.  

Wait, wait, wait...you can't be serious that the Mets would come up with the trade chips necessary to land one of the games most impressive younger sluggers, right?  

After all, since joining the majors at just 19 years of age for the Washington Nationals, Soto has been pretty terrific.  In his six years in the majors (including the shortened 2020 campaign) he has averaged 33 HRs, 101 RBIs and produced a .284 batting average.  For this level of production Soto is being paid well.  His current paycheck with the Padres is for $23 million and during this forgettable season he has hit 35 HRs, driven in 108 and walked 128 times while hitting .276.  

Since he is under contract to the Friars for 2024 he will be getting a big raise in his final year prior to hitting free agency.  Let's for the sake of argument say he becomes a $28 million ballplayer.  Losing him a year too soon could bring the team a wealth of talent whereas waiting for him to go to free agency would result in just a draft pick assuming he turns down his QO.  Consequently it would certainly be in the Padres' interest to cash in on the man right now.

So towards that end, do the Mets have players that the left coast would be contenders could find appealing?  Well, yes, in fact they do.  Think ahead of the 2024 season about players who are in their system and think a bit about whether or not they are good fits for the future.  Catcher Kevin Parada must wonder how he's going to play for the Mets with Francisco Alvarez having established himself as a 21 year old starter today and for the foreseeable future.  He would be a big chip to consider moving.

Additional minor league resources who could be on the block would be under performing Brett Baty and under performing Mark Vientos.  The difference between the two used to be considered defense, but neither has shown themselves capable of handling the hot corner with anything but tepid glovework.  Baty never really got a long hot streak put together and Vientos took until late August and early September to start to hit at an impressive level.  Still, one of the two could accompany Parada in this type of deal.  

Would that be enough to get it done?  It just might.  Remember, after sacrificing two hot level prospects in Parada and one of the infielders you still have to pay the $28 million or more Soto is due in arbitration for 2024 and you have no guarantee he'd remain a Met for more than that one year.  Now you become the Padres in which your return on Soto becomes a draft pick when he turns the Mets down for a Qualifying Offer.  So you would have given up two prime talents and paid a lot of money with no guarantees of anything beyond the 2024 season.  That seems a rather fair return given the salary relief the Padres would immediately get and the quality of the players in return surpassing the long term gamble of a single draft pick.  

We could play this same game with some other hot hitting major leaguers, but the point is that the much ballyhooed "We won't trade away the farm anymore" mantra may be filled with as much hot air as a Thanksgiving day parade balloon float.