Reese Kaplan -- The Starting Pitching Market Just Shot Up in Price

Folks can kick around the question of the NY Mets starting pitching for the upcoming 2024 season in an almost unfathomable number of ways.  You obviously can pencil in Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana as two of the starting five.  After that, unfortunately, it gets pretty murky in a hurry.  Assuming Carlos Carrasco is wished well for what he's done and not done as a Met, they have three vacancies to fill.

Some people point to the few positive starts made by no-longer-youngsters Tylor Megill and David Peterson as viable options for the rotation.  Yes, they do each occasionally put up nice numbers but those games are few and far between.  This year both of them with extended opportunities are registering ERAs above 5.00 and both are closer to 30 than they are to 20.  At some point you need to indicate when someone simply isn't performing at the level you'd projected and move on to new options.  

Obviously the Mets will be in on the bidding for Japanese youngster Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  At the age when most Mets pitchers are getting their first taste of the major leagues he's already established a solid track record of remarkable pitching, better in fact that what the club has seen from Senga.  He will be an expensive addition but likely not nearly as much as major league free agents whose career has been spent primarily in America.  

What may likely increase Yamamoto's price is the over-the-weekend 2nd domestic violence charges leveled at top major league starter Julio Urias of the Los Angeles Dodgers.  After a 2019 investigation of domestic abuse that was dismissed, Urias has turned himself into a rather remarkable pitcher.  It included a 2022 performance during which he went 17-7 with a league leading 2.16 ERA for the entire season.  His career ERA is a sparkling 3.11.  While his numbers this year are a bit down from that metric, the fact is that with a single domestic violence charge that led not to jail time but to counseling in his somewhat distant past, the impact on his free agent bidding would likely have been rather minimal.  

Now, however, Urias is facing a much more significant problem.  He was arrested for a felony level domestic violence situation and he is currently off the active roster for the Dodgers likely for the remainder of the season.  Neither the Dodgers, major league baseball nor the police have released any additional details about the case, but it had a creepy Trevor Bauer vibe to it that suggests his upcoming free agency may give his current employer a graceful way out of associating with him regardless of the outcome of the investigation and criminal decision making. 

Getting back to Yamamoto, Julio Urias is either completely off the table or at least significantly less desirable to clubs hoping not only to bolster their starting rotation but also to reaffirm their commitment to hiring responsible adults.  The Dodgers are most likely gunshy after their previous investment in Bauer.  Then toss in the UCL problem facing Shohei Ohtani and all of the sudden this guy from Japan is likely pushed to nearer the top of the list.

The Mets' interest in Yamamoto is certainly real.  Billy Eppler was among a contingent that recently traveled to Japan to have a look at this young superstar pitcher.  Eppler was instrumental in bringing Ohtani to his former employer, the Angels.  He successfully recruited Senga to come to the Mets where he's pitched far better than his $15 million per season price tag would suggest.  Even before the Ohtani and Urias situations arose it was expected that at 5 years younger than Senga acquiring Yamamoto would be more expensive.  Now that number likely surges a bit higher (not that money is a problem the Mets have under the Cohen ownership).  

Assuming for a moment that the club does indeed land Yamamoto, who else is in the rotation?  We've already dismissed Peterson and Megill.  Jose Butto is back but thus far hasn't shown much and is more of a soft tosser type of pitcher than an overpowering one.  Joey Lucchesi is hanging around the fringes and could possibly be a 5th starter option, but there are other free agents to consider.

The top half dozen pending free agents are pretty well known, though some have health issues to consider.  If all things were normal this coming off season Clayton Kershaw would be at the top of that list.  However, with the impending departure of Julio Urias and Kershaw's many weeks in various seasons on the IL, his price point would decline.  The Dodgers may not be inclined to let him go as they are already going to have to fill Urias' innings.  

Next up in terms of quality might be a toss up between Blake Snell and Aaron Nola.  Both are commendable pitchers who will be seeking long term comfort in a contract north of $25 million per season.  While that's not pocket change, it's $18 million less than either Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander got.  

Next up would be Corey Kluber and Lucas Giolito.  Both are decent options to consider but not guarantees to be in the sub-4.00 ERA performance level.  Still, if healthy, either would be a step up from the in-house Mets options (though Kluber's last really good year was 2018 and he'll turn 38 during 2024).  Giolito has never really strung together a high-win/low-ERA season and turning 29 next year he may be in the post-prospect problem spectrum like Peterson and Megill.

Finally, there's a former Met who did not ingratiate himself with his starts, Michael Wacha.  He's a bit of a conundrum, seeming to waiver between good years and mediocre ones.  For his career he's under 4.00 with the ERA and he's actually coming off decent numbers with Boston in 2022 and spectacular ones with the Padres this year.  It would take a lot of deep swallowing to offer up big money given his COVID year pitching that resembled 2023 Carlos Carrasco, but he's currently earning just $7.5 million.  The Padres can choose to keep him and pony up $16 million per year for the next couple of seasons and given his 11-2 record with a 2.85 ERA they may very well do so.  

After that it would be trades but unless the club is shocking us by dispensing with starting players or reneging on the promise not to peddle off the top youngsters, there's not a lot to give other than paying down the contract to entice someone to take Omar Narvaez.