Paul Articulates - Let the spring begin!

February has finally arrived!  After way too many months of talking about nothing happening in the much too quiet off-season for the Mets, we have finally arrived in Spring Training Month!  Pitchers and Catchers report February 14th, position players report by February 19th, and the first game starts at 1:05pm on February 24th.  Let’s start baseball season!

If I sound enthusiastic, it is because I love baseball, warm weather, and the intrigue of a seven month competition that combines strategy, skill, and luck.  I am not quite so enthusiastic about 2024 being the Mets’ first championship season in 38 years, because I expect this to be a growth season.  It is very interesting to me that the Mets have chosen to work around the fringes after some big spending years.  They clearly are being hurt by the luxury tax, and it is perfectly understandable that they would look to restrict payroll growth.  But it is also interesting to me to listen to the front office talk about expectations for a competitive season.  Let’s try to get into their thinking by exploring some things that drive their arguments about competitiveness.

1) This team is better than people think.  There was an extreme lowering of expectations after last year’s epic underperformance.  It was not just a reset in how fans thought about the team following a strong 2022 season.  It rippled down to every player, where their weaknesses seemed to stand out above their strengths.  But actually, this team has many very good MLB ball players that should have won many more games last year.  They just had a comical combination of bad streaks, poorly timed injuries, and a little bad luck sprinkled in.  Even though we heard nothing but positive attitudes in the public comments from players, coaches, and management you know that the heap of unfortunate events affected their mental state.  They just couldn’t find how to win.  The one thing they needed to change the collective psyche was a winning streak.  Or a new start.  Now they have one.  Expect better things up and down the lineup.

2) This year begins with more harmony from the leadership all the way down through the coaching staff.  Last year’s team struggled with finding a working chemistry.  What to do with Escobar versus Baty; finding arms to replace injured starters; figuring out roles in a bullpen devastated by the loss of their closer; and whether to push veterans to get some wins or insert the youngsters to get some experience.  These were hard decisions. By the end of the season, after Buck Showalter was let go it was apparent that not everyone was on the same page with that approach. 

3) The pitching lab has been in operation for months.  We are already hearing some very interesting anecdotes in interviews about what the pitchers think about the feedback they are getting.  Could this finally be the year that the Mets pitching staff actually outperforms expectations instead of the other way around?  Could there be fewer injuries because of the attention to detail about pitching mechanics and how it affects stresses on the body?

4) The defense is better.  The outfield becomes much stronger defensively with a healthy Marte, Nimmo in left, and Bader in center.  Those three will add the range to track down more balls in Citi Field that just can’t seem to find those distant walls.  This will make the pitching better.  Francisco Alvarez tried to do a little too much last year but with his accumulated MLB experience and his penchant for constantly learning I expect a very strong defensive year from him.

5) The offense is better.  Pete is on a walk year, so expect him to amass some huge numbers.  McNeil had an off year until the last month and with Eric Chavez back in the hitting coach role expect another .300+ season.  A healthy Starling Marte will rejuvenate the lineup.  Lindor will be more relaxed at the plate when everyone around him is finally hitting and could have his strongest offensive year with the Mets.  Alvarez will also be more relaxed and that will result in some great power numbers.  You get the picture – good things tend to multiply.

6) There is no pressure on underdogs.  The Mets are underdogs – most have them third or fourth in the east this year so there will not be “must win” series until September and only then if they outperform expectations.

All this seems very optimistic, and since it is almost spring that is OK.  It is a common theme in baseball.   But you must understand that I am not predicting another 101 win season.  I just think that it is going to be much better than many folks predict.  I hope that becomes a great environment for the young players that will get a legitimate shot this year.