Tom Brennan: Thoughts on Another Ranker’s Top Prospects List

HOW DO I COMPARE MY TOP PROSPECTS LIST TO ANOTHER RANKER?

I greatly respect all folks who put out Mets prospect rankings. It’s a lot of work.

I, as previously stated, really try to consider prospects who have PRODUCED WELL AND HAVE GOOD TOOLS. 

Other rankers besides me are (as I have seen it) lean more on tools and less on production in picking their prospects list. So, in recent years, for example, a few hitters with excellent tools but extreme strikeout rates have been ranked by others in their Top 30 - but not by me. Of course, if someone is 17 and played 30 games in the DSL, or was just drafted and threw no innings, there is little production to weigh, but if someone like a Paul Skenes didn’t play or hardly played in 2023 after being drafted #1 overall, I’d likely have him as my #1 prospect.

Futurestarsseries.com ranks each organizations’ prospects. Their top 30 list for the Mets is below. Good list by them.  They ranked them also on a 20 to 80 scale, which I do not.

A 55 rating per them is a “Potential all-star. Some impact. Above average big-league regular. Mid-rotation starter on a contender”.

35, four steps lower, are described as “Potential up-and-down, Quad-A prospect. Has some tools. Development necessary to secure prolonged MLB role.”  

50 is close to 55, and 50, 45, and 40 are steps down from 55 towards 35.

What do I think of Future Star Series’ listing and ranking? I won’t go thru every one of the 30, but I will highlight some differences.

Here’s my mid-October Top 35 prospect list, with ranking order skewed for high production, if you care to consider to consider it for your reference:

Wow! Productive Ones!

My updated “Productive Top 35” is below.  Surprisingly, as I see it, it is a loaded list.  Lots of real talent.  The overall Mets minors had a bad win-loss result because, frankly, there were way too many weak players (e.g., close to, or below, .200 hitters, and lots of lousy pitchers), but that doesn't mean the top 35 isn't very, very good.  You decide if you agree. 

Pre-viewing explanatory notes are as follows:

a) You don’t produce, you get demerits.  Downgrades.

b) You produce, though?  UPGRADES!  Production counts.

c) Guys out for all or part of the 2023 season who will also miss all or most of 2024 are excluded to make room for talented producers.  SO...NO MATT ALLAN, BRYCE MONTES DE OCA?  Correct. See you dudes back on the field hopefully sometime in 2024. But you are not in my Top 35 for now. Come back, play, and we’ll see.

d) A player’s hypothetical ceiling is also considered of course.

Luke Ritter, for example, clocked a gaudy 27 HRs in just 107 games last year in AA and AAA, but he will be 27 come next spring training and his 137 Ks in 107 games at his age just seem too high to consider him a top 30 prospect.  If he had fanned 107 times in 137 games instead, he'd easily be in my top 10-15, as his HRs per game rate in 2023 was amazing.

This list includes the best recent draftees, as I felt they deserved it.  

Of course, some had very little playing time.  I am, for instance, leaving Nolan McLean just off bottom of my list (let’s say he is # 36) until next year.  Why?  The 3rd round slugger/pitcher fanned 11 times in 16 at bats while walking 7 times - a small sample, but Ks are expected and concerning  -  and he pitched just 3.1 innings, allowing one run - good, but very brief.  He is supposed to be more pitcher than hitter - we'll see next year.  I am, to be clear, confident he'll rapidly earn his way up the list in 2024. Top 15 by this time next year is my estimate.

Ditto Kade Morris, a 3rd rounder in 2023 who threw 3.1 IP and allowed 1 run.  I'll add him to my top 35, presumably, in 2024. assuming he can improve on his pretty lousy college stats, including in 2023 (5+ ERA, 1.50+ WHIP), in Nevada, which perhaps was geographically part of his problem, since Las Vegas proved to be a tough place for Mets prospects to pitch in years past..

I increased my “Top” list from 30 to 35 so as to not leave out a bunch of DSL hitters who really did well in 2023.  Riskier to include them, as the shift to stateside often separates the hombres from the real bambinos, but I decided to take that risk and include some of them.

THE HERALDED LIST OF 35 IS HEREWITH UNVEILED….

1. Jett Williams - IF/OF - Binghamton Ponies - he is our future Trea Turner, and that is high praise. On base machine with speed and moderate power.  121 games, 104 walks and  15 HBP, a solid 43 extra base hits, 45 of 52 in steals, all along with a .425 OBP, in his first full season...while a teenager...finishing solidly in AA. What is not to love? - Drawback?  Just 5'6"

2. Drew Gilbert - OF - Binghamton RPs - anyone who plays a lot of his first full pro season in a league as high as AA and, after the trade, in 35 AA Binghamton games, hits a sensational .325/.423/.561?  To me, that has him in a coin flip with Jett for the # 1 slot.- Drawback?  Just 5'9"

3. Luisangel Acuna - Binghamton RPs - great fielder and speedy, but the 21 year old hit like Ruben Tejada after the trade. Just 2 HRs, both in one game, and 3 doubles; Acuna needs to hit better. He had just 39 XBH in 569 PA.  Not good at all, frankly.  I really struggled in my mind to put him above the next guy for that reason. Is a long-term comp for him a Luis Castillo, who was an excellent major leaguer with low power for years?

- Drawback?  Just 5'8" But wait…the great Joe Morgan was just 5’7”, wasn’t he? 

4. Ronny Mauricio - IF/OF - not short, like the preceding 3. He is barely, but still, eligible for NL ROY next season. He played well with the Mets in September. I gave Luisangel Acuna the edge over him (for now) only because of Acuna’s superior glove.  But Ronny generates far more extra base hits.

5. Kevin Parada - C - Binghamton RPs -  hit well enough, but no “wow” hitting.  Must add in the “wow” to his offense in 2024.  When we tracked fellow catcher Alvarez as he ascended, I found myself saying WOW a lot.  Maybe now that Kevin is past the hitters' hell Brooklyn, he will WOW us with the bat in 2024.  Am I too harsh on KP to drop him to #5?  Well, when I looked, he was not included in MLB's top 10 prospect catchers. And his K rate needs to shrink.

6. Blade Tidwell - RHSP - Binghamton RPs - he pitched very well in Brooklyn, struggled a bit in AA with its less forgiving home park and superior hitters.  I expect a strong Tidwell 2024, and for him to be ready to be a big league starter in 2025.  Future? Middle-to-back-end rotation guy, with a chance at being better.

7. Dominic Hamel - RHSP - Binghamton Rumble Ponies - he was frankly lousy early in 2023.  He was frankly superb later in 2023.  I think he is on his way, with a 2025 arrival time. Future mid-to-back-end-of-rotation guy.

8. Christian Scott - RHSP - dealing like an ace in High A and AA in 2023.  With his control, he could beat Tidwell and Hamel to the Mets.  Future mid-to-back-end-of-rotation guy.

9. Mike Vasil - RHSP - Syracuse Mets - he is ahead of the prior 3, found it rocky in 2023 there.  I think he improves a lot in 2024, and makes his Mets debut during the season.  How good will he be?  I'm guessing fringe starter, until he proves he is better than that. 

10. Nick Morabito - OF/IF - 20 year old in FCL, really is prepared for takeoff.  57 games of excellence split between FCL & St Lucie, where he hit .306/.421/.407 with 21 steals!  Just 2 HRs, but I imagine we'll see him eventually get up in the 10-15 range.  Good outfield glove.  He just might be another Jett Williams, but injuries limited his first half games, so he played just half the games as Jett did. What if he had played 64 more games like Jett? Seriously....is Nick a second "future Mets’ Trea Turner"?  Reportedly, to be clear, he does not have a gun for an arm.

11. Jacob Reimer - 3B - he was raking in FCL at age 19, then in St Lucie, and then struggled in a brief stint in Brooklyn. To me, I'll take a flyer on him as a close to top 10 guy.  336 at bats, 8 HR, 49 RBI, .265 overall.  I think we see him improve in leaps and bounds in 2024.  And he'll have us saying, "another quality infielder?  Where will he fit?" 

12. Nate Lavender - AAA lefty reliever, and first reliever in the list, he performed exceptionally well and fanned over 13 per 9. ERA under 3.00, way below his teams’ ERAs. Definitely NY-bound in 2024, IMO.

13. Paul Gervase - RHSP - Binghamton RPs - Higher K rate than Nate, and a minuscule ERA. This 6’10” dude fanned 20 in his 10 inning AA debut.  What does THAT tell you? Queens ETA 2024.

14. Wilfredo Lara, SS - St Lucie - 19 until May of next year, Lara had 14 HRs amongst his 35 extra base hits in 96 games, 50 runs, 49 RBIs and 17 steals. Great for his age.  A little behind Reimer, IMO, but he is speedier.

15. Tyler Stuart - RHSP - Binghamton RPs - Stuart was death to South Atlantic League hitters in 2023, and did OK briefly in AA. The 6’9” righty was on the IL down the stretch. He is currently listed, thankfully, as "active", and an Oct. 10 Anthony DiComo article mentioned Stuart without reference to any injury, so Stuart presumably will be ready to go in 2024. In 2023, he tossed 111 innings, and ended up 7-2, 2.28.   Hopefully, he merely reached an unwritten innings limit.

16. Rhylan Thomas - OF - first full year culminated in AA, and after a short stint in St Lucie, where he hit .303, he amazingly hit over .340 in Brooklyn and Binghamton, and fanned less than anyone in the organization. Just needs to add power. That is a big "just", and some doubt he will.  Won organization’s minor league OF Gold Glove. I think if major league outfield playing time emerges, he will be ready to help the Mets by late 2024.  Is Dave Magadan a good comp?  2024 will reveal that.

17. JT Schwartz - smooth, smooth hitter and first baseman, great RBI rate in 2023. Now, the 6’4” righty hitter has one mission…add power.  I just wonder if Rhylan will be the better of the two hitters, but Schwartz could easily come out on top here. Time for a coin toss.  Both Rhylan and JT need more power in their game, along the lines of Drew Gilbert.

18. Joander Suarez - Suarez was lousy through early July 2023.  The second half was different - he had an absolutely brilliant stretch of several games in AA late in the year where he was almost unhittable.  In fact, in 6 of his last 7 season starts, he tossed 36 scoreless innings and allowed a mere 7 hits. And that was after a strong 4 game stretch in mid-July where he fanned 32 in 24 innings. allowing just 15 hits. Strong second half control (a walk every 5 innings). A 1.98 ERA in the second half, and just a HR allowed every 18 innings this year. So, I took a leap and slotted him in at # 18, to see if a little more consistency and 2024 success jumps him into the top 10.  I'd not be surprised if he got called up as a bullpen arm in 2024.

19. Colin Houck - I'm sure Houck will rapidly ascend, having been the 32nd overall pick and considered perhaps the 12th-15th best talent.  He was 7 for 29 in limited post draft play. I wish the Mets picked a pitcher, not yet another SS, but if he turns out to be great...?

20. Ryan Clifford - the 20 year old, 6'3", 200 pound lefty clobberer clobbered 24 HRs, but - surprise, surprise - hit just .198 for Brooklyn, the same as Stanley Consuegra did in Coney Island.  Clifford also fanned 51 times in 32 Brooklyn Cyclones games, after fanning slightly over once per game prior to the trade.  Get him OUT OF BROOKLYN!  He is ready for AA. Ks clearly must come down, but Ryan is just 20, so he has ample time.

21. Stanley Consuegra - OF Brooklyn Cyclones - could be a real sleeper. He incredibly hit 14 road HRs in under 50 games and .260+ on the road. Awesome. Nine HRs in horrid Brooklyn where he hit .198...I wonder how many HRs the wind robbed there? He still hit 23 HRs in a mere 97 games.  

Full stop: 17 of those HRs were in his last 56 games!  He could turn into a true long ball crusher in AA in 2024.  Has to cut the Ks a bit (113 in 409 PAs). He may be way too low at # 21.  I am betting he hits 30-35 homers next year, since a) he will be in Binghamton, not Brooklyn, and b) he will, if healthy, play 30 or more games than in 2023.

22. Marco Vargas 18 year old IF did great after debuting with St Lucie after an equally impressive FCL stint. .265/.432/.389, 13 steals in 54 games in 2023.  Gotta be on my list.

23. Jeremiah Jackson - SS - AA - 22 HRs in 440 at bats, 27 steals, .260s, terrific so far, but... his 144 Ks in 500 plate appearances to me are a red flag.  In essence, the 23 year old is putting up the equivalent of Khalil Lee numbers.  And Lee hardly made the majors (and did so poorly). The high rate of Jackson Ks are keeping him out of my Top 20.

24. Brandon Sproat - perhaps the righty 2nd round starter should be ranked higher, but not a single pro inning thrown after the draft, so I start him low.  He can climb in 2024 when he produces.

25. Calvin Ziegler - RHSP - just 1 IP late in the season after injuries in 2023, in which he delightfully fanned 3.  That was after not many innings in 2022, BUT high potential. If healthy, top 10 by mid-2024? Why not?

26. Julio Zayas - C, age 17, in DSL, flat-out raked. 46 G, 166 AB, 7 HR, 42 RBI, .295/.351/.506, just 22 Ks.  RBI Guy.  One RBI Guy Tomas Nido is jealous.  What a performer Zayas was at his age in 2023.  How will it translate stateside in 2024?  We'll find out.

27. Rowdey Jordan - OF - he hit just .135 (7 for 52) in AA in April, but the 24 year old former 11th rounder was strong thereafter and finished at .230 with 13 HRs, 63 RBIs, and 65 walks in 119 games, and 30 steals. Reasonably impressive, but what is his career ceiling? 2024 will tell. Playing in the AFL this fall - 3 doubles in his first 25 ABs there.

28. Jefry Rosa - OF - led the entire DSL in HRs. And there are 50 teams in the DSL. And he only played 39 of his team's 54 games! 126 AB, 15 HR (what a rate!), 34 RBI, .286/.413/.714, 38 K.  He may not be nearly as successful at higher levels, but anyone with a .714 slug % is in my Top 35.

29. Wilkin Ramos, 22 year old righty who relieved very well. 5-2, 2.50, finished up in AA. 67 Ks in 57 IP.  Mack likes him, so should you. Queens in late 2024 seems possible.

30.  Anthony Baptist - DSL - CF: 27 G 82 AB, 2 HR, 15 RBI, .280/.450/.476, 21 K, 9 SB. Big bonus speedster.  He missed games but came on stronger at the end.  Maybe, of all the DSL guys I have listed, he will turn out to be the best.

31.  Heriberto Rincon  - CF - DSL: 43 G, 148 AB, 1 HR, 20 RBI, .318/.408/.400, 33 K, 16 SB.  Speed and on base skills seem strong. Ditto on the "we'll see how he does stateside in 2024."

32. Jeremy Rodriguez, SS in DSL, post-trade: 8 G, 24 AB, 9 RBI, .458/.583/.708, 3 K, 1 SB.  Wow!  The 17 year old stole 19 bases in 51 games in 2023, with a .411 OBP. Well thought of. I’m taking a high flyer, and could be very wrong here, but let's make it interesting.

33. Daniel Juarez - LHRP - great relief year in High A/ AA, but not as good as Lavender and Gervase in terms of Ks. Yet, he belongs in the top 30 after slightly over a K per inning and 3-3, 2.37, 0.93 WHIP season.  Future Mets pen guy? I'd say YES! You want to switch him to # 29 and move Wilkin Ramos to # 33, I can live with that.

34. Alex Ramirez - CF - High A - bad season, so I'm dropping him.  Until when? Until he produces, that’s when.  

Take out that 6 for 6 game and he hit .210 in all of his other games, and he played a lot.  With just 7 HRs in 521 PAs, or just one every 75 PAs!  Compare to his teammate Consuegra’s HR deluge. Alex, prove you deserve to be highly ranked again, after a frankly bad year. 

35. Trey McLoughlin, AA reliever. Brooklyn Binghamton, 4-3, 2.79 in 51 innings with 64 Ks.  He PRODUCED in a year where so many Mets minor league hurlers did not. Not bad at all for a former 16th round righty.  Pitching in AZ fall ball.

Matt Rudick, OF, slid barely out of my top 35. He was IMO the undisputed Eastern League MVP until mid-June.Then, being a Met comes often with a jinx: a shoulder injury screwed the rest of his season.  In mid-June, pre-injury, he was going so well that I thought he’d be a late season Mets call up. Will turn 26 next July, so he badly needs to not be hurt in 2024 so as to compete against a horde of good offensive players while is he still relatively young.

Some I dropped out of the top 35 because they were lousy in 2023. They DIDN'T produce.

Righty Justin (pitched like Jane) Jarvis was lousy in AAA, although perhaps he could be a Mets reliever in 2024 at some point.  He has allowed a truly high 40 HRs in 260 innings in the minors over the past 2 seasons (compare to Suarez, who has allowed 12 career HRs in 215 IP).

Righty Landon Marceaux was lousy in AA and then (I believe) banished to the utter darkness of Tommy John Siberia, as he ended the season on the 60 day IL.  

And some I'd previously listed in my Top lists, like Jose Peroza, stalled out from a good beginning down to a mediocre level of production as 2023 wore on.  Off the list they went. Guys like Willy Fanas to me need to prove after a so-so year that he is top 35 stuff.  He and Simon Juan are in my top 50 (I have not formally ranked any below #35) because they got big bonuses, despite weak offensive production. And Branny de Oleo, DSL might deserve top 35; a SS. He played 44 G, 159 AB, 3 HR, 25 RBI, .302/.387/.472, just 17 Ks, 6 SB.  I like the low Ks. Of course, any DSL guys are a crap shoot, maybe my top 35 list gives them too much credit. 2024 beckons. Prove your ability then.

Also, Jostyn Almonte RF DSL: 41 G, 135 AB, 6 HR, 27 RBI, .311/.427/.526, 36 K, 13 SB.  Again, are great DSL stats a mirage?  They weren’t for former Mets star prospect Andres Gimenez.  They were, though, for whiffing slugger Vicente Lugo several years ago, who had one prolific DSL year.  We'll see how Almonte does stateside in 2024, and I'll rank him in the top 35 later if he excels.

In this organization, mediocre may get you to the majors for a while if you are a pitcher, but it won't if you are a hitter. Few slots exist of hitters.

Let’s not forget DSL/FCL talents Jesus Baez and Ronald Hernandez, both of whom the Mets site listed on their top 30. Hernandez, particularly, could have been on my top 35. But my shoe horn broke.  And a fine high minors player like Joe Suozzi (.270/.362/.382, including some quality games at AAA) went undrafted and has hit well since his Mets minors debut in 2021 but is he going to be major league caliber 1B/OF?  Not quite convinced, but he has performed solidly as a pro. I won’t say he can’t.  Definitely in my 36-40 range.  

Meanwhile…some pitchers almost made the top 35.

Left out of the top 35 because he in my mind didn't yet quite make the cut is Saul Garcia, a 20 year old righty who turns 21 in June 2024, who fanned a fine 106 batters in 80 innings, and was 6-9 with a 5.04 ERA, mostly in St Lucie (a high K league) with 13 late season solid innings in Brooklyn.  Who knows how much he improves at a still very young age next year?  

And his 20 year old teammate 6'4" Luis A. Rodriguez, who threw just 31 innings last year but was solid, with a 3.69 ERA and 30 Ks.  Both could climb rapidly next year. We’ll see.  Also a future top 35 guy is lefty reliever Eli Ankeney, who was 3-1, 3.07 with 51 Ks in 41 innings, mostly in Brooklyn.  Walks a bit high.  Let's see how he does in AA next year, but the 22 year old 20th rounder from 2022 had a surprisingly strong season.  Eric Orze is now 26 and had a lousy AAA year undeserving of a top 35 ranking - until he was absolutely brilliant in his last 11 innings of scoreless relief with 22 Ks.  He perhaps figured something out and my guess is he could show up in Queens in 2024. 

Had I not added several DSL guys to the top 35, the list could have included a guy like Brandon McIlwain (.247/.356/.393, 20 steals), but while the 25 year old had a decent offensive season in AA and AAA, "decent" does not get you to the big leagues.  He needs to get a lot better, and do it fast, given his age.  But, despite being 5 years older, he had a whole lot better year than Alex Ramirez.

All of the "almosts" above, the ones who didn't quite crack my top 35, would fall into the 36-50 range for me.

Hundreds of Mets minor leaguers trailed behind all of the above-noted guys, to be clear. Why behind?  They didn’t produce enough.

Back to today’s article:

In comparison of my thoughts to their list, Jett Williams I hope to be a 60, because he had a great season at age 19, so I expect big things.

Mauricio? More of a 50 to me, because his fielding has been shaky for years and he doesn’t walk enough, but his power game has been ramping up. 

Gilbert to me is a 55, while Clifford, due to his high K rate in Brooklyn, is likely a 50, but his range could climb to 60 if the contact rate improves, or could drop to “Kirk Nieuwenhuis II” if he doesn’t. 

In the rest of the top 10, I think Christian Scott is a 50, not a 45, due to his solid major league velocity and very excellent command.

I’d be surprised if their #11 and #12, Sproat and Hamel, will not be more successful than their 40…I’d put them both at 45. Tyler Stuart a 45 and maybe even a 50, as well, due to an apparent uptick in velocity this off season.

I do not yet have a good read on how successful Baro, Raimon Gomez, and Jonah Tong will be, so I left them out of mt Top 30. They have Jacob Reimer as a 35, while I’d see him as potentially a 45 or 50 after his very solid season at age 19.  Nick Morabito, not on their list, hit .306 with 65 rated speed. He’s in my top 35 for those reasons.

They have Alex Ramirez at #13 despite a terrible 2023. I put him the penalty box with a 5 minute major penalty.

I believe Joander Suarez has had many injuries, but his 1.98 AA ERA after June told me to rank him. 

Rhylan Thomas is not in their top 30, or frankly almost anybody’s, but his .328 average, very low K rate, and better slash line than mighty Jeff McNeil had at the same age and levels has Thomas in my top 30.  

I also consider successful relievers, as they are critical to a team’s success, and so Bulldog lefty Nate Lavender and high velocity strikeout machine Paul Gervase are well up in my top 30. Paul’s 96 Ks in 54 innings in 2023…and just ONE HR allowed? Wow. Gervase is coming tall (at 6’10”) and coming fast. I have that duo and I believe rightfully) at #12 and #13 on my Top 35 list. Both were truly PRODUCTIVE in 2023.

 They on the other hand have Justin Jarvis in the list, despite 57 HRs allowed, and a high 4.56 ERA in 416 pro innings. NOT productive.

Finally, I like to look at impressive runs by a player. Stanley Consuegra had a torrid stretch of 17 HRs in 56 games, including one allegedly in the 500 foot category, so he’s definitely on my productive prospect list.

Have a productive da, but before you do…

“FUTURE STARS SERIES” LIST IS HERE FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION:

RANK	PLAYER	POS	RATING
1	Jett Williams	SS	55
2	Ronny Mauricio	IF	55
3	Drew Gilbert	OF	50
4	Ryan Clifford	OF	50
5	Blade Tidwell	RHP	50
6	Colin Houck	SS	50
7	Luisangel Acuna	SS	45
8	Christian Scott	RHP	45
9	Kevin Parada	C	45
10	Mike Vasil	RHP	45
11	Brandon Sproat	RHP	40
12	Dominic Hamel	RHP	40
13	Alex Ramirez	OF	40
14	Nolan McLean	RHP	40
15	Tyler Stuart	RHP	40
16	Calvin Ziegler	RHP	40
17	Boston Baro	SS	35
18	Jacob Reimer	3B	35
19	Yovanny Rodriguez	C	35
20	Jose Butto	RHP	35
21	Kade Morris	RHP	35
22	Raimon Gomez	RHP	35
23	Justin Jarvis	RHP	35
24	Junior Santos	RHP	35
25	Jesus Baez	SS	35
26	Jeremy Rodriguez	SS	35
27	Matt Rudick	OF	35
28	Joel Diaz	RHP	35
29	A.J. Ewing	SS	35
30	Jonah Tong	RHP	35