The off season is always the Honeymoon period.
The Mets have recently gotten hitched with some "suitors".
Will the 2024 season be better...or worse...than expected?
The Mets ought to better in 2024 than in 2023…here’s why:
1) STARTING PITCHING
Sure, there is no Max and Justin this year, just their salaries, but what looked like it would be a fine 2023 rotation fizzled:
a) Justin and Max combined missed lots of starts.
b) Senga was great, but just 29 starts.
c) Carrasco made only 20 starts. With a 3-8 record and a 6.80 ERA, while the team went 7-13 in those 20 starts, maybe missing them all would have been better. (Give Joey 20 starts instead and he would have won 20 games. After all, he had no losses in 2023.)
d) Quintana made just 13 starts. < 50% of expectations.
e) Peterson and Megill were up-and-down in their fill-in starts. Lucchesi was brilliant, of course, at 4-0, 2.89.
Despite the above, the fine Senga pitching and limited dose of Joey brilliance resulted in the Mets surprisingly being 13th in starter team ERA, at 4.20.
I think Senga, Manaea, Houser, Severino, Quintana, Megill, with his new split finger pitch, Lucchesi, and Peterson can at least equal that starters’ ERA in 2024, and possibly get it down to 3.75.
Stay healthy, stay sharp, lads.
2) RELIEF PITCHING
Gone are Robertson and Ottavino, who combined were 5-9, 2.75 with 26 of 32 in saves in 2023. Big loss. (Well, on second thought, Adam Ottavino is BACK! Thankfully.)
His Fastness, Sir Edwin the Great is back, too, and the man with more punch outs than Hitman Tommy Hearns should more than neutralize the loss of Robertson.
Also, the pen got rid of some (IMHO) total retreads with what are likely modest-to-solid upgrades, and a few retained hurlers like Drew Smith and Brooks Raley remain ready to get the job done.
Last year’s Edwin-less pen was a substandard 26-36, with a 22nd best 4.45 ERA.
I expect the 2024 pen to be in the 3.80 to 4.00 range, before further upgrades, if any.
I like newer Mets in the pen like Phil Bickford; Michael Tonkin, who was 7-3, 4.28 with the Braves last year; Max Kranick, who might well help; and wild man Austin Adams, with his wild, HBP-crazed pitching (31 HBPs and 170 Ks in 114 wild MLB career innings) ought to be fascinating to watch.
Then, of course, there is the spill-over of starters who can't start due to lack of room in a healthy rotation.
3) HITTING
Should improve, based on the following:
a) Mark Vientos and Brett Baty struggled a-plenty last year, essentially as rookies, and should show significant improvement as "veterans" in 2024.
b) Signs are positive as to a Starling Marte resurgence, as he looks healthy while playing W Ball, and may put the STAR back in Starling.
c) Pete, Lindor, Nimmo, and McNeil, the foundational four, should provide similar output to their 2023, perhaps even better.
d) Francisco Alvarez had a dandy rookie season at age 21. He should be "Dandy PLUS" this season, and his back-up, Narvaez, was so bad last year, partially due to injury, that one would only expect real improvement there.
e) Harrison Bader is an upgrade. Decent hitter, good speed. Gold glove.
f) The bench has replaced several slow and punchless hitters of 2023 with Joey Wendle, Tyrone Taylor, and (a late 202 addition) “Write a Little Letter, Gonna Mail it to my local D.J.” Stewart. Maybe Jose Iglesias gets some ABs, too.
IMO, the hitting could generate 50-75 more runs in 2024. And a few of the minors kids should be ready to help in the second half of 2024.
And...Drew, Jett, and Luisangel are drawing closer to the show, too. Ronny Mauricio should be back in time to be World Series MVP, also.
4) FIELDING
The 2023 Mets were a sorry 25th in baseball with negative 25 defensive runs saved.
David Stearns has ramped this area up by adding strong fielders in Bader, Taylor, and Wendle. Baty should be better, as should Vientos when he is in the field. Both presumably are working feverishly to improve.
Marte could be a much better defensive player if he stays healthy, and Nimmo should improve by shifting to LF a lot more. Alvarez improved his defense as 2023 proceeded, and (why not?) he may even shoot for a Gold Glove in 2024.
It is entirely plausible that this Mets team could finish at + 25 DRS, which would be an invaluable 50 defensive runs saved improvement over 2023.
In Summary, your Honor:
If the Mets have a little more than their share of injury setbacks, they may win 85 (up 7 from 2023), but if they stay really, really healthy, 92-95 wins could be possible.
Demented hopes? Perhaps. Perhaps not.
Now...let's see if theory dovetails with reality.
EX-MET JOE SMITH RETIRES
Drafted in 2006 in the 3rd round, he needed just 33 innings in the minors before making the Mets in 2007. (He is the poster boy of my theory that if you as a draftee know what type and quality of pitches you need to throw, and the locations you need to throw them to, it should not be hard to get to the majors quickly. But that theory seldom plays out in practice. I get why it takes hitters longer - the pitch quality and speed increases as a player climbs the ladder, and it is a real adjustment. Hitting is the hardest thing to do.)
Pitching is largely knowing what to do, adjusting and executing. Overly simplified? I dunno - but Joe needed 33 innings. Just 33.
Anyway, after his super-slim 33 innings in the minors, Smith relieved for the Mets for 2 seasons (2007 and 2008) and was 9-5, 3.51 in 136 games! Sweet. One might say indispensable.
So the Mets, not being particularly shrewd, trade the low-salaried Joe Smith, getting (IMO) precious little in return.
Maybe they thought Joe was washed up?
Maybe they knew something the other teams didn't know?
No, that theory doesn't fly.
Joe, after his Mets trade, over his final 13 big league seasons, was 46-29 with an ERA under 3.00 in 730 outings and 665 innings.
(I find myself thinking "STUPID, STUPID, STUPID", but I don't like to criticize the Mets if at all possible. Well, not really, someone has to do it. Just an extremely stupid trade. Not the first, nor the last.)
Saves weren't his thing - just 30 of 66 but 29 of his first 56 before he was getting older, which was not so bad - but he also had 228 holds, a phenomenal amount.
Another guy with a fine career, but most of it NOT with the Mets. A habit the Mets need to break, Justin Turner just reminded me. (No, he didn't, nor did Daniel Murphy or Jeff Kent or Amos Otis).
I did see that another quality player discard, Travis d'Arnaud, was not happy with how his Mets tenure and dismissal went down, and that the Mets are the team he was maddest at. Oddly, and without calculating it, the post-Mets combined career hitting totals for Murphy, Turner, and d'Arnaud might just be HOF worthy. Dismissed.
End of my rant - different things about this team's miscues triggers me, and gets me on a rant. I feel better now.
17 comments:
Why are we lying to ourselves? Why are the Mets lying to us? The starters got hurt, but what if our best starters get hurt again this year? Now what?
Last year’s entire pitching staff was better. The bullpen with Robertson and Ottavino setting up was better. The starters led by the co-aces was better. In early February, everything was better last year; the whole buildout. It’s after the biggest dominoes started falling followe by the smaller ones. - first Diaz, then Verlander, then Quinatana, then de Oca, then Scherzer - that the season was jinxed.
Why didn’t he Mets just look to reset the tax and be done with it? What’s with this half-approach?
Gus, Carrasco also missed 5 weeks in April-May, after his 2022 when he was 15-7.
I think this staff can't be any worse health-wise. Last year's looked great on paper, but the starters were collectively ancient except for Senga. Old...and as it turned out, brittle. Quintana in particular had a long multi-year stretch of very few starts, but his consistency in the last 40% of last season gives me hope for him for 2024. Even Megill got hurt. It was a huge gap between theoretical quality and actual output.
They just got so few starts collectively the first 4 months of the season.
The new guys have had past injury issues, but their youth really ought to result in fewer injuries in 2024.
I also think Peterson (when he returns) and Megill will be better than the 2023 versions. I wonder how much of Peterson's inconsistency in 2023 was due to the barking hip, and I think the new Megill splitter will upgrade him.
I also think the pen will be better, even as is, than in 2023, but I get into that more in a few days, so I don't want to do that now.
Jon Harper was urging them to get JD Martinez or Soler. If either would take a one year deal at big bucks, I could see them still doing that. Anything that stays off the 2025 and 2026 cap. Why they fanned on Turner, I'm curious. I don't know what his $13 million for one year PLUS INCENTIVES likely would have meant beyond 2024, as I did not look at that.
Agree with you, Tom. My last post was filled with optimism.
Ray, I am an optimist not only for 2024, but for 2025. Stearns got the job because he is Stearns and because he convinced Cohen that strategy and restraint also work well in baseball, with a still high paying checkbook.
I believe that the return of Chavez to hitting coach was a huge step. Someone said that he was just a step away from the hitting coach but he was not the hitting coach. I believe based on write-ups of Chavez, he understood the politics of the coaching staff and wouldn't overstep. Back in this role, can he get the big five (Nimmo, Lindor, Alonso, Marte and McNeil) to hit like they did in 2022 when the Mets lead the league? As Tom stated in a much earlier article which I tried to find unsuccessfully, the other 4 spots in the order were unproductive. Hitting something like .210 with no production. Alverez production wise should be a vast improvement of the 2022 catching group. Can Chavez get Batty and Vientos on track. I believe he can. Bader will be Bader. In the second half of the year, a new crop of kids will be knocking on the door. Can Chaves help them become productive MLB hitters?
It is written about how tough it is to play in New York. The kids need to be protected as best they can so they learn to play not only in the major level but to play in New York. The veterans on this staff need to protect the kids.
I would agree that the pitching staff may appear to be a little short. I believe that Joey L could be fine as a #5 starter as he was in San Diego. Most forget that he was coming back from tommy john surgery last year. Megill with his new pitch. No fancy signings but I believe that there could be enough to make for a very competitive 2024 season. Wild card? I got to believe.
Steve M, an excellent recap.
Steve M, one old article had this:
Meanwhile…
Mendick hit .290 with the White Sox last year, .190 as a Met this year. Typical.
Arauz is 6 for 49 (.122) as a Met, and 23 for 152 in the majors the last 3 years (.151). The verdict is in.
Locastro is .143 (3 for 21), but boy is he fast, huh? It’s been a few years since he hit over .200, which is what made him attractive to the Mets.
Meanwhile, last year’s speedy bum, Travis Jankowski, who hit .167 for the Mets, in 221 at bats for Texas this year is hitting .281 with 17 of 18 steals. Funny how that happens a lot, huh?
Locastro is a .400 hitter vs. Texas, and wants to try that next, too, after 3 straight seasons hitting below .200.
The Angels’ Brandon Drury was NOT kept by the Mets, as they clearly knew better, knew that he was a bum. We thought otherwise, of course.
Drury in 872 ex-Mets at bats in 2022 and 2023 has hit .265, with 53 doubles, 46 HRs, and 144 RBIs.
Highest payroll in baseball,75 wins!
Looks like we just signed Lefty Diekman. Had a great second half of year with the Rays. Throws hard 95+ and the Rays got him to use his changeup more which turned him around. Let’s hope Hefner sticks with that philosophy for him.
Will probably be the last signing so this will probably be the team going into the Season. Tom not demented but maybe half asleep when you wrote 92-95 Wins. lol. I like your enthusiasm but unless the kids play up to their potential, we stay mostly healthy, and some of the reclamation projects come through we top out at high 80’s in Wins. I look at it this way if things play out to our best we will be in the WC Race all year. If things don’t pan out we are one of the biggest sellers at the deadline with all the one year contracts we have. And grow our farm system. It also gets the youngsters (Gilbert, Acuna, Scott, Vasil, Lavender, Gervase etc.) up for the second half of the year.
I agree with Tom's optimism. To me the big question marks are Pete working to overcome his .217 BA, and Vientos as DH. I wanted Turner back, but if he or any other veteran became full-time DH, that would take away Mark's only opportunity to get enough ABs to judge him by.
The other big question is Baty's ability to realize his potential at 3B.
If those questions get positive answers, I feel Tom's 90+ Ws are are a real possibility.
Finally back. Add Canha with the big five. They combined to hit .283 during 2022. The remaining batters hit a combined .224 in 2221 at bats with 247 RBIs on 51 home runs. There was some pretty Ruf at bats. I believe that Alverez and Vientos can do those 51 home runs and half of those RBIs. I believe Baty could match Canha's 13 HRs and 61 RBIs
In 2022 the Mets were first in team batting average, third in runs scored, and eighth in home runs. If Chavez can do his magic with the batters, I believe the Mets can start approaching these numbers / rankings leading to a very competitive season.
The actual number of wins then would come down to the pitching staff. How many free agent pitchers are / were there worth taking a huge investment in? (Only one I can think was and they made a big effort to sign him).
The Mets have the 5th best pitching prospect ranking. Starting out this year, it appears to be the batting prospects. The second half of the year, the second wave of batting prospects and the beginning of the pitching prospects. The free agent market next year appears strong and maybe worth waiting.
MeGill and Vientos,big seasons from both. Count on it,
Amazin Z, I was waiting for someone to call me out on 92-95!
SteveM, good job. I do think the pitching prospects are good, just not as good as their hitter prospects. Free agent hitter? Maybe pass, and see where the team is at in July. Cespedes was a pretty good July addition.
Anon, I do agree on Megill and Vientos exceeding common expectations.
LMAO, if they don’t exceed common expectations there probably in the minors. There bar ain’t to high..
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