Tom Brennan - Facts on Mets Hitters at Home vs. Away

WOW!  THAT shot didn’t go out? Caught at the 408 sign? Again?

Yeah…THAT CITI-SUBJECT again. 

Brennans can be annoying sometimes.

I took a little time to look at home and away Mets hitting since 2015, the first season of the current dimensions (other than a slight, positive tweak in right field in 2023).  

Keep in mind there should be a home-field advantage in your home park.

Homefield advantage ultimately means "how much is your home-field helping you to win at home".

But this article looks at whether hitting at home is advantageous, or disadvantageous, to Mets hitters.

The answer, in a word, is disadvantageous. But you check out the facts.

Except for that slight, favorable fence alteration in 2023, the last inward fence alteration at Citifield benefitted the Mets hitters starting in 2015.  

Excluding the 60 game fluke season of 2020, how did the Mets hit at home and on the road in the 8 full seasons starting in 2015? 

Average for 8 years on the road: .253, 103 HRs, 365 runs

Average for 8 years at home: .238, 96 HRs, 332 runs

Significantly lower hitting at home over a statistically meaningful stretch of time.

On average they have been in the bottom third in home hitting, but almost reaching into the top third in road hitting. I would posit that road hitting is the true indicator of a team’s offensive ability, as it largely eliminates the impact of the 81 game home field advantage or disadvantage. Collectively, games on the road are hitter-neutral.

We all know the Rockies have a crazy good home park hitting set up for hitters. But their guys go on the road, and you see their true colors. They hit a whole lot less. My guess? On the road over the last 8 full seasons, the Mets have hit a lot better than the Rockies.

If there was a homefield advantage, the Mets’ .253, 103 HRs, and 365 runs that they produce on the road should be slightly higher than that at home.

So, say about .257, 110 HRs and 380 runs at home, if the park was hitter-neutral, as one should expect a team would hit somewhat better at home.  

The gap between hypothetical home results in a neutral park, and actual home results, is clearly huge, and negative, to the Mets' hitters.

If they hit 20 points higher at home, with 15% more Citifield HRs and runs, fans who only see what a hitter is producing overall would suddenly feel better about the team’s hitters, cheer them more, boo them less.

Yes, opponents have to hit at Citifield for a few games each year, too.

Mets hitters hit there in 81 games, though, and that increased difficulty has to affect their psyche. It is like running on a running machine set on a 3% upwards grade. You won’t run as fast.  Tougher park, you won’t hit as well. Hitters hit better? They hit better in a neutral park, relax and press less.

That’s all I have to say (again) on the subject. Hopefully, my nagging will give Stearns and Cohen something to think (and study) about.

Pitchers? If the home park is a little easier on hitters, keep the ball down better and you’ll do fine.

Of course, any player who played at that park there had to be dead pull hitter.

IT’S THE METS’ FAULT?

I READ THIS ON FOX NEWS’ WEBSITE:

“A Pew Research Center survey found Americans believe football, not baseball, is "America’s sport," and the margin is very wide. The survey saw 12,000 adults asked, "If you had to chose one sport as being ‘America’s sport,’ even if you don’t personally follow it, which sport would it be?" 

“This question, found in a broader survey about sports fandom throughout the United States, saw 53% of Americans believe football was America’s sport. Baseball came next on the list at 27%.”

If the Mets were the long-time juggernaut franchise we all wished they’d have been, baseball would still be most popular. That’s my opinion, anyway.

WELL DESERVED

Phil Bickford deservedly (IMO) wins his arbitration. I strongly advocated for him in this regard in an earlier column.  Good for you, Phil. 

Bickford, who has 3 full relief seasons in the majors, pitched for New York and the Los Angeles Dodgers last season. He will now earn $900,000 this season, $85,000 more than what the Mets had offered him. The 2024 MLB minimum wage is $740,000, so the Mets’ rejected offer after 3 seasons was just $75,000 above the minimum. Now, he’ll make a little more than 20% over the minimum.

And…Wild Man Austin Adam gets DFA’d…dang. May the reigning HBP King and proud owner of 170 MLB Ks in 116 MLB innings pass through waivers and remain in the Mets organization.