Paul Articulates – A strong start

The New York Mets have had some real ups and downs over the last several seasons.  The surprising 2022 team made a big run at an NL East title and fell just short in a disappointing end.  The promising 2023 team could never get it together and delivered one of the greatest under-achievements in history.  If you are reading this, you are likely a Mets fan, and if you are a Mets fan, you know all about the tumultuous journey we have been on.  Will this be a season of dreams, or a nightmare that we can’t wake up from?  Only time will truly tell, but I believe there will be some very important early signposts to tell us which path the team is on.

Optimism exudes from everywhere at spring training.  Every interview with players, coaches, and management spins the positive side of what may become of the season.   It is difficult to really judge the shortcomings of a team when there are more players than roster spots, and most folks have arrived healthy.  Watching skilled players display their abilities in drills is very different than seeing them in a dark state of mind when they are mired in a 1-23 slump.  So this is not where will find the clues.

Look to the first month of the season.  The Mets have some very big challenges in front of them that were arranged by the league office when it released the 2024 MLB schedule.  In the span of 32 games from March 28th through May 2nd (which I will loosely call the month of April), the Mets have 19 games at home and 13 games away from Citi Field interspersed with only four off-days.

Home stand #1: Milwaukee (3 games), Detroit (3 games)

Road trip #1: Cincinnati (3 games), Atlanta (4 games)

Home stand #2: Kansas City (3 games), Pittsburgh (3 games)

Road trip #2: LA Dodgers (3 games), SF Giants (3 games)

Home stand #3: St. Louis (3 games), Chicago Cubs (4 games)

What stands out to me in this schedule is the difficulty of the road games.  Cincinnati was very good last year, and I still expect them to field a strong team despite several changes in the off-season.  Their pen is going to be great again.  Atlanta is not only one of the most talented teams in baseball, but they also are driven to play hard against the Mets because of their rivalry.  The second road trip is not only one of those tough west coast 6 games in 6 days trips, but it features two teams that spent a tremendous amount of time and money improving their squads in the off-season.

The Mets have consistently stated that their team is deeper this year than in prior years, and that their defense and base-running expects to be improved.  Those two things are essential in carrying them through this opening stretch because there will be very little rest.  The other thing that is extremely important to prove in April is the depth and strength of their pitching.  The rotation does not look much like any season in the recent past, as it is not loaded with Aces.  Rather there are five or six very capable pitchers that need things to break their way for this to be a successful month.  We saw last year that an inability to get through more than 5 innings in most of the April games led to bullpen fatigue by June and a whole lot of games that used too many arms.

A successful year in 2024 has to open with a successful April.  Seven of these ten teams have a legitimate playoff shot this year (including the #1 and #2 teams in the NL), so anything short of a winning month is going to be a big confidence hit.  By the second of May, if this team has 18 wins they have a legitimate shot – less than that will foretell a long season.