Spring training is about to start for real (finally!) and the Mets have a number of questions people want to see answered. Today let's look at the infield offense.
Some folks are willing to write off the poor batting average in 2023 as a combination of down overall offense for the team and a lingering injury that wouldn't allow him to swing normally. Now you can't write off the power and run production as those numbers were certainly solid. For a guy approaching free agency one of two things generally happens.
He performs better than ever before because each solid base hit and each run he creates drives up the bidding price among the teams who would like him as a part of their everyday lineup.
The alternative is the fizzle which is more mental than physical. As much as the man wants to be a classic cleanup hitter when the output can pay for the rest of his non-baseball life, he can't compete with himself and what happened in 2023 becomes the norm.
The third variable, of course, is extending his contract prior to letting him hit free agency. While his agent would recommend against it, at least a strong negotiation in this regard would make both the media and fans feel that the Mets are doing for their business what the Braves, Dodgers, Red Sox and others have done to ensure a long term commitment.
Nothing has been leaked to the media in this phase actively taking place, so you can rest assured the vultures are circling the front office for what they perceive as a failure in one of their primary objectives.
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How solid is Jeff McNeil's future with the ballclub?
For whatever reason fans don't seem to respect batting titles as much as they do All Star Game appearances or fear of the long ball in the hearts of opposing pitchers and managers. While a finishing number of .270 would be perfectly acceptable to most ballplayers, his WAR metric was only slightly over half of what he delivered in 2022 when he did win that NL batting average title.
Consequently, many feel he's on a path back towards what had been his reality which right now shows a career batting average of .298 with more power and competent defense. In a way he could be damned if he does or damned if he doesn't. Behind him on the depth chart are recovering Ronny Mauricio and rising star Jett Williams.
If McNeil is by circumstances forced to be a second baseman all season, that position may not suit him in 2025 and beyond due to the influx of cheaper and more dynamic youth. Mauricio has power and good speed while Williams has good power and great speed. Shifting one of this trio to the outfield only solves part of the problem.
So will the $15.75 million per year player in 2025 and 2026 (with an option for 2027) find himself on the outside looking in? Again, doing .300+ makes him desirable to other teams in trade while a repeat of 2023 could make him seem a bit overpaid at that level. Either way, he'd better not book any long term commitments to real estate.
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What does Brett Baty need to produce to solidify himself at third base for more than 2024 out of necessity?
We've all seen tons of video of Baty hitting and fielding effectively as he worked his way up the Mets ladder. For a quick refresher, take his minor league batting into account. Over the course of 4 partial seasons amounting to about 2 full major league seasons in terms of ABs, he would have provided a .290 batting average with 24 HRs and 90 RBIs. Everyone in the greater Queens area would sign up for that right now.
Of course, what happened in 2023 was a shell of what he seemed to project during steady progress towards the big leagues. What was even more shocking was his defense which made people recall many of the miscast Brooks Robinson wannabes yet wasn't so awful that they are ready to hand the position over to Mark Vientos who has more power and demonstrated it in September of last year when he finally got to play steadily.
A top level sophomore campaign from Baty with say a .275 average with 20 HRs and 70+ RBIs would relieve a metric ton of doubt from the fans and media (while also spelling a potential premature departure for Jeff McNeil when Mauricio and Williams both need playing time).
6 comments:
To me, both McNeil and Alonsoare.proven talent. There are enough question marks on this team before questioning these two.
Play both in the infield this season.
Jeff was battling injuries in the first half. He hit .253 in the first half, then was healthier in the second half. I hope he hits .290 in 2024.
I had written this late last year about Alonso, as to why I think he will do better in 2024: What about Pete Alonso? Bad season average, you say. Why?
In his 91 at bats after the wicked June 7 HBP off his wrist that put him on the IL, he had just 12 hits and 4 HRs, as he returned prematurely from his injury to help a flailing, floundering Mets team. Prior to that HBP, he was hitting a meager but power-packed .231, but that 12 for 91 dropped him all the way to .203 in late July before the bat resumed functioning.
Outside of his 12 for 91 injury-induced nightmare stretch, for all other ABs of the season, Pete was 111 for 477 (.233) with 42 HRs and 106 RBIs. Had he not been hit by that pitch, it is quite possible that instead of ending up 46/118, he would have hit 55 HRs and driven in 130+.
Baty? Fangraphs averages of several projectors have Brett at about .240/.315/.400 this year. Last year’s actual was .212/.275/.323. I guess we’d not be thrilled but would be relieved if his slash line improved that much in 2024.
The dominance of how the Baby Mets batted at AAA versus the majors goes to show prospects are just that until proven differently
Absolutely right, Mack. And it's not just the NY pressure either. As demonstrated by young Mr. Kelenic, and many others, some of our top prospects who fand have decried "losing" in trades, struggle in lower-pressure cities.
And others who became stars even beyond their projections (anyone remember the "M & M kids, Mays and Mantle?) really struggled before overcoming the need to adjust before turning into HOFers.
Projections for our Babies are meaningless except for setting expections which they may or may not reach.
Wow,275/20/75 that would be something. Vientos,250,30/80,so would that. Ain’t Spring Training grand?
If Baty and Vientos meet expectations there a playoff team..
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