Reese Kaplan -- A Lot of Unknowns for the 2024 Mets Roster

What will constitute a good 2024 season for the Mets?

To some, nothing counts short of an appearance in October baseball.  To others, a decided improvement over the previous season will constitute a victory.  Then there are still others who only count on the progress made by players as the season wears on.  Players who struggle in April and May who step up for June and July, then excel towards the end of the year make for a bright future even if the current results are a modest improvement.

For the Mets, there are lots of candidates to watch closely for the 2024 season.  Starting with pitching you obviously want to see year two from Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana.  Both showed some stellar outings in 2023 but in Quintana's case it was only a partial season.  Senga was there from day one and by most baseball scribes' attention he was one of the top 2-3 rookie players during an otherwise disappointing season.

Then you have the newcomers.  For this upcoming season you have the recovering Luis Severino.  Everyone knows how dominant he can be when he's healthy and able to pitch steadily.  Still, the same folks are aware of how much time the man has missed due to injury during his career.  

He's allegedly ready to take the ball every fifth day and if so, then the price paid for him could indeed be a shrewd bargain.  That injury spectre is still looming over him, however, and it's also reasonably likely he will miss chunks of the upcoming season or pitch while favoring his arm, shoulder or legs which compromise his natural form.

After that are a few unknowns.  Sean Manaea has had his ups and downs during his pitching career primarily with Oakland.  This past season he finished very strongly after a sputtering start.  If he can recapture what he did in the latter part of the year, then he's likely to be a solid performer in 2024 and 2025.  

Less well known by anyone except David Stearns is former Brewers hurler Adrian Houser.  He's appeared both as a starter and reliever during his career and the gut feeling is he has number 4 stuff.  Consequently the modest price paid for both he and Tyrone Taylor could be a bargain in disguise.

In the bullpen it's a little less rosy.  Yes, everyone knows what Edwin Diaz is capable of doing and if he's healthy then he is one of the top 2-3 pitchers in all of the major leagues.  Adam Ottavino was a nice return engagement and Brooks Raley demonstrated what he did for the Rays in 2022 was no illusion.  After that it gets a bit murkier.  

Newcomer Jake Diekman had a very solid second part of 2023 when he played for the Rays but was run out of town by the Chisox.  Drew Smith had a highly forgettable 2023 and no one knows what to expect going forward.  After that it's a passel of AAAA relievers and folks coming off poor 2023 seasons who they hope can somehow find the magic salve for their arms to make them perform credibly.  None personifies this metric more than the 7.18 ERA newcomer Shintaro Fujinami.

On offense the two primary Baby Mets -- Brett Baty and Mark Vientos -- appear slated to get at least a half season's worth of steady play to determine if they belong in the major leagues or not.  Folks seem a bit more optimistic about Vientos' bat than Baty's, but Baty is the superior defender (2023 notwithstanding) so that the third base position is his unless he forfeits it.  

No one knows what to expect from Tyrone Taylor or the much more expensive Harrison Bader.  Neither have excelled in the majors but each has some very positive attributes on defense and/or speed that can provide contributions to winning ballgames.

The real major variable for 2024, however, could be rookie manager Carlos Mendoza.  We all know his story as having interviewed well for a number of openings during the past few seasons, but the proof is in the pudding and no one knows how he will be as the guy with the lineup pencil when push comes to shove,  He and David Stearns need to forge a relationship of trust and accountability that is a work in progress for newcomers.  

For now, many folks always think that with the start of a new season October baseball is entirely possible.  Others feel that the somewhat lackluster off season isn't indicative of a serious commitment to winning.  Still others feel that a transition year is just that and to let the chips fall where they may.  Right now I'm not sure which camp I'm in, but it's surely not the one thinking about postseason baseball.