Reese Kaplan -- What Do the Mets Have In Francisco Alvarez?

What is a realistic expectation for the development of young catcher Francisco Alvarez?

To hear some folks tell it, he's the best thing to happen to all of baseball since the rookie breakthrough of Johnny Bench many years ago.  He has power, adapted his defensive game as the season progressed and in the few number of ABs he had in his forced rookie campaign in which he delivered 25 HRs he was actually on a full season pace to hit the mid 30s total.  Break out the champagne and sign this man to a long term deal before he prices himself out of the apparently Wilponian budget.  

Then there's the other side of the coin are the folks who feel that while he demonstrated home run power, his 95 rating is diminished significantly by his poor defensive skills that don't match what he does with his bat.  Even then his hitting is highly questionable as he finished the 2023 season with just a .209 average and whiffed 110 times on a pace that would threaten to eclipse the 200 plateau.  His defense was uneven and a strong arm was sometimes offset by poor footwork while his pitch calling was a work in progress.

The truth, of course, lies somewhere between these two extremes.  The one thing to bear in mind is that his 25 HR season occurred at the ripe old age of just 21.  How many 21 year olds in any position are delivering what Alvarez did, particularly when the plan called for a full year in AAA with Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido slated to man the catching duties for 2023.

Go back and look at the scouting reports on Alvarez and you see some interesting observations by the professional scouts.  The first thing you hear about before his ability with the wood in his hand or leather on his hand is his personality.  One scout reported his intense interest in establishing relationships with everyone.  He even told a story of Alvarez waiting to meet all of the members of the ground crew when he worked minor league games to ensure he conveyed how much he valued what they did for the playing field.  Some said they thought it was posturing, but the more folks came to know Alvarez they realized that's simply who he is.

Another interesting tale is his commitment to improving his game.  His girlfriend complains that he spends more time on late night phone calls with his trainer back in Venezuela than he does with her.  Anyone who watched from April through September of 2023 saw the evolution of Alvarez as a player.  Things that were red flags early in the season, while not necessarily solved, certainly became manageable as the year progressed.  

Earlier in his minor league career he was deemed average in his defensive skills but to hear the naysayers voice an opinion that level of performance is something he must ascribe to achieve.  Still, no one seems to work any harder on all aspects of his game and the potential for him to become an asset with the glove certainly does not seem beyond the realm of possibility.  At that same age of 19 he was rated a 60, an above average major league catcher and an occasional All Star.  If anything, as he has matured that grade book rating seems a bit light.

Watching him demonstrate his power is almost awe inspiring.  The phrase light tower power is often levied in describing how momentous his blasts can be.  After hitting 18 HRs in just 67 games in Binghamton he hit one off the stanchion during his first month in Syracuse, following it up by blasting one completely out of the stadium in Allentown.  

Despite being the biggest international bonus baby the Mets ever signed, Alvarez takes absolutely nothing for granted.  He's typically the first one to the ballpark to work out often arriving before 6:00 AM as verified by scouts.  At age 15 he told anyone who asked his goal was to win the World Series and make it to the Hall of Fame.  He doesn't lack for confidence.

For now, be happy Alvarez is the starting catcher and enjoy watching him evolve into one of the league's upper echelon choices behind the dish.