Tom Brennan - Starting Rotation…Wishful Thinking??

Born Under a Bad Sign? 

Folks Who Engage in Wishful Thinking Say No, and See Nothing But Blue Skies.

In 2024, the adage "It takes a village" may apply to Mets starters.

The Met signed Sean Manaea and Luis Severino this offseason, the former for 2 years totaling $28 million and the latter for one year $13 million.

In Manaea's case, he developed a lethal sweeper during 2023 and had a low 3's ERA in the season's strong second half.  One can be hopeful, but keep in mind he only tossed 118 innings in 2023.

Luis Severino is another story.

He has missed a ton of time due to a series of maladies, As the Athletic effectively summarized it, Luis Severino pitched in just 26 games over the length of the 4 year Yankee deal, dealing with a laundry list of injuries: rotator cuff inflammation, lat strain, Tommy John surgery, right groin strain and then another lat strain.

His ERA was terrible in 2023.  If healthy in 2024, he could well be a very good pitcher (think Cookie Carrasco 2022).  If not, think Cookie Carrasco 2023. Any reasonable fan could expect him to miss a lot of 2024 starts.   Why?  His extensive injury history. Even at age 29.

Jose Quintana?  Now 35, he had just 76 innings in 2023, pitching well while healthy.  Over the past few seasons, he also missed a lot of time.

Kodai Senga? A great year.  Just do that again.

Adrian Houser?  31 years old, he ought to be a durable # 5.

I think it is reasonable to assume those 5 will start 120 games. But starter durability is very hard to predict. I’d say the actual range is 100-140 games from those 5. If it is 100, we will have engaged in a large amount of wishful thinking.

Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi  David Peterson could absorb 20-50 starts, and Butto and a combination of Vasil, Hamel, Scott and Stuart ought to have the Mets covered for any otherwise open 162 starts in 2024.

Timing of missed starts is critical….meaning, you don’t want the starting five to be significantly injured at the start of the season, nor down and out the last few weeks of the season and the playoffs if they make them.

Last year, there was euphoria with a heaping helping of wishful thinking.

Yes on paper , it looked great. But the rotation was extremely old.

We all know what happened to the wishful thinking. 

Verlander missed the first 5 weeks, Scherzer missed a few early starts, Quintana missed the first 60% of 2023, and Carrasco missed several starts in April and May. So many early starter injuries, and missed starts, coupled with the loss of the superlative Edwin Diaz for all of 2023, was like getting hit with 2 vicious early blows from mid-career champ Mike Tyson. The Mets continued to fight on but those bows took their toll and their level of fight was badly impacted.

If all goes well, it could be a strong start in 2024 for the starters. 

That usually is wishful thinking. It rarely “all goes well.” Just ask Jake deGrom.

When fine china is dropped, a broom and pan are needed.

The Mets dropped a lot of china in 2023.

BABE RUTH:

Speaking of starters, Babe Ruth went a remarkable 47-25 in 650 innings in a 2 year span in 1916-17, with an ERA of 1.87.

He pitched a few games in 1920 and 1921 (3-0), as he transitioned into a truly feared, game-altering slugger. Many years later, in 1930 and 1933, he pitched one game each, at his request, at the end of those seasons. 

Both were complete game wins.  He hit 3 for 8, with a homer and a walk, in the two games, too.

Really, stunning, huh?