Tom Brennan: Mets Have Many Bona Fide Future Major Leaguers in Minors; & Yo, Adrian!

WOW!  WHAT A LIST!

So...please read…and let me know what you think.

"Do the Mets have more bona fide future major leaguers in their minors than ever before?" 

Let's leave Alvarez, Baty, Vientos and Mauricio out of this conversation.  They've already graduated.

The only way to address the question in the article heading is to go through the prospects in two groupings:

1) Likely average or better future major leaguers

2) Likely marginal to average future major leaguers

In the likely average or better category, as of right now, I see this group, above rookie and low A ball in descending star power order. 

OF-2B Jett Williams - Future Star

OF Drew Gilbert - From Above Average to Future Star

2B Luisangel Acuña - From Average to Above Average, due to his speed and glove.

1B/OF Ryan Clifford - Ceiling = Pete Alonso; Floor = Kirk Nieuwenhuis

C Kevin Parada - Ceiling = Realmuto; Floor = James McCann

In the likely marginal-to-average future major leaguer category:

1B JT Schwartz - if he brings fire, and more firepower, to the upper minors in his play in 2024, he can prove he's better than Dom Smith.

OF Rhylan Thomas - great contact, hit .328 in 2023, Mets minors gold glove, but will he add power, which his game really lacks so far?  

As a reminder, his minors slash line last year was clearly better than that of Jeff McNeil at the same age and minors levels.  So count him out if you wish, but....I won't.

2B/SS Jeremiah Johnson: JJ's K rate reduces him a few notches from sure-shot prospect to "we'll have to wait and see".   Good power.

All of the following higher minors pitchers IMO ultimately ought to be #3 to #7 starters or valued Mets bullpen arms in 2024-25:

SP Dom Hamel

SP Mike Vasil

SP Blade Tidwell

SP Christian Scott

SP Tyler Stuart

RP Nate Lavender - minors bullpen K machine.

RP Paul Gervase - minors bullpen K machine.

RHP Joander Suarez should not be forgotten. He had a scintillating 1.98 ERA in the second half in AA last year with well above a K per inning and low hits allowed.  Is he chopped liver, or caviar?  We'll find out in 2024, comrade.

But wait, there's plenty more...

Lower minors/rookie ball players with real MLB potential include:

IF Colin Houck - first rounder in 2023, so that alone indicates a future big league career is likely.

IF Marco Vargas - eventually the same caliber as Acuna?  I think yes.

C Ronald Hernandez - eventually duking it out with Parada, to see who is better?  I think yes.  He's that good.

OF Nick Morabito - .306, with his SPEED? He'll be Mets top 10 next year.

3B Jacob Reimer - watch him soar up the prospect list into the top 10 soon. 20 this season.  Ready to show folks he's the real deal in 2024.

IF Jeremy Rodriguez - Mets' #30 prospect?  At age 17?  Toolsey, talented, terrific.  Future is very bright.

RHSP Brandon Sproat? New hi velo draftee. Mets drafted him 2X, in 2022 and 2023, so he must be GOOD.

RHP Nolan McLean?  New draftee. Perhaps the minors's hardest non-Oca thrower, or at least a tie with Sproat.

RHP Calvin Ziegler? Live hi velo arm. Large upside if he can now stay healthy.

RHP Kade Morris?  He had his brief 2023 debut, now let's see if he is perhaps another Chris Bassitt.  He may well turn out to be.

Hey, maybe Alex Ramirez rebounds in 2024 from his disappointing 2023 and moves back into baseball's top 100 and the Mets' top 10.  

His often overlooked fellow Brooklynite, Stanley Consuegra, blasted 23 HRs in 97 games, including an incredible 14 HRs in 46 road games in High A ball away from Cyclones Nightmare Park.  Apparently one HR he hit was a 500 footer.  Could he hit 30-35 in AA/AAA this year?  Why the heck not?

Also, there were other prospects I did not list!  

Two are Justin Jarvis and the talented Matt Rudick, with short Matt being the best offensive player in the entire AA Eastern League before he got hurt in June 2023. I'm sure you can think of a few others, but Matt and Justin ought to see some major league action in 2024 if all goes well.

AND quite a few FCL/DSL hitters made real statements in 2023 and, likely, some of them will make more bold statements in the lower minors in 2024.  

Maybe a few of them will be future major leaguers.

So...is this the best Mets crop ever?  Maybe, baby.  

That's a lot of quality people, people.

I am VERY OPTIMISTIC with this large group.  How about y'all?

Can you think of a year where there was that much MLB-potential quantity?

Quality? 

Prospects1500 listed their Mets Top 50 in January and shows no Tier 1 (future All Star) level prospects and just a few Tier 2 prospects. Keith Law’s Top 100 meanwhile has just 4 Mets (Jett at #30, Acuna at #45, Ronny at #94, and Gilbert at #100).  So, until proven otherwise, the prospects’ quality is not a “Wow”. We need WOWs.

(Oh, and let’s not forget many others, like Wild Willie Lugo, Whopper Junior Tilien, and Damage-Delivering D’Andre Smith. Good seasons undoubtedly lie ahead for them).

GREAT THINGS CAN TAKE TIME AND PATIENCE WITH HITTERS

We want guys called up from the minors to DAZZLE us.  We give them a week, maybe 10 days, to get their major league act together.  If they don't the boos start.

But sometimes even great players take time to go from OK to great.

Take, for instance, Adrian Beltre.  In his first 6 seasons, he only got as high as 23 HRs in one of those 6 seasons, and 85 RBIs in one of the other six.  His average in those 6 seasons was around .265.  Decent.

In his season # 7, though, the "Great Switch" was turned on:

His average jumped 94 points to .334, he hit 48 HRs, drove in 121 runs, and won a Gold Glove.  

He then backslid, and had 5 very solid but not great years.

But then Beltre did really well for most of his remaining career and ended up with a 21 season Hall of Fame caliber career, 1,707 RBIs, and 5 Gold Gloves.

"Beltré was....elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in his first year on the ballot as voted on by the Baseball Writers' Association of America. His name appeared on 95.1% of the ballots."

So, if Baty, Vientos and Alvarez all improve nicely in 2024 but don't blow the doors off, think of how long it took Adrian Beltre to find the “hitter dynamite”.  Let's hope our three are quicker to excellence than Beltre, and brought a supply of matches to light the dynamite.  

LOOKING FORWARD:

The Daily News had a recent article in which “Andrew Christie, the Mets’ director of player development, (spoke) about five of the club’s top young players.”

ACUNA? 

 “His bat-to-ball skills are pretty top-end. Those are the kind of ingredients you need to get to the [Major Leagues]. The next step is developing some of his power and continuing to develop some of the swing decisions that are already pretty strong. There are a number of tools that stand out and just the effort and energy are really impressive.”

GILBERT?

“You never want to overreact too much to a two-month sample size (after the Verlander trade)but he was incredibly impressive. He was unbelievable. He’s not somebody like Pete Alonso who hits the ball 118-120 miles an hour but he is somebody who can make a lot of contact. He hit a lot of long drives and doubles and homers. He really maximizes his contact and makes a lot of it.”

JETT?

“He makes a ton of contact and has elite-level swings. He will not extend the strike zone. Similar to Drew Gilbert, he maximizes his contact. He doesn’t put the ball on the ground very often, he hits a lot of doubles and he’s going to hit a lot more homers moving forward.”

SCOTT?

He misses a lot of bats (10.98 strikeouts per nine innings in 2023) with a mid-90s fastball and strong control.

“We identified some skills there and some potential miscast pitch usage. We said, ‘Hey, stop throwing your sinker, which isn’t that great. Throwing a fastball from a very unique release, it’s going to play up.’ And so he has done that since he’s been with us.”

LAVENDER?

“He’s an absolute bulldog.  When you see a relief pitcher, in terms of mindset, that’s the guy you think of. He is not intimidated by anything. I’m really looking forward to seeing him get in there throughout spring training and getting out some of these big hitters, and I think Mets fans will see it when they’re watching games and spring training.”

THOSE ARE SOME OF THE POSITIVES IN THAT ARTICLE.  TIME FOR YOU TO SMILE.

BUT...ANY CHANCE THE METS GETS THIS GUY IN 2028? 

I DOUBT IT....HE'S ATTENDING COLLEGE AT STANFORD...IN CALIFORNIA

From an article on the Mets website:

"It’s official. Power-hitting Japanese phenom Rintaro Sasaki is headed stateside.

Sasaki, a student at Hanamaki Higashi HS -- the alma mater of Shohei Ohtani and Yusei Kikuchi, among other stars -- signed his National Letter of Intent to play baseball at Stanford University, beginning with the 2025 season. After three collegiate seasons, Sasaki will be eligible for the MLB Draft.

Dubbed the "Japanese Prince Fielder" by the popular English-language NPB channel Yakyu Cosmopolitan, Sasaki obliterated Japan’s high school home run record with an astounding 140 dingers. 

He posted a .413/.514/.808 slash line during his career at Hanamaki Higashi, walking twice as much as he struck out. Sasaki was projected to be the first overall pick in the coming NPB draft before signing with the Cardinal.

Sasaki joins a Stanford program that reached the past 3 Men’s College World Series and has produced dozens of Major Leaguers, including Jack McDowell, Bob Boone and Hall of Fame pitcher Mike Mussina. Nico Hoerner, Tommy Edman and Cal Quantrill are among active players who are Cardinal alumni.

LUKE VOIT REDUX?

I call Cool Hand Luke’s  home runs Sky Walkers. 

Anyone whose name is just two syllables is my kind of guy. 

Just like…Mack Ade.  And Babe Ruth,