2/9/24

Reese Kaplan -- A Short Term Fix Vs. a Long Term Answer


During this David Stearns rookie Mets campaign's off season there have been quite a few changes made to the club's roster yet none that seemed to reflect all that positively with the fan base while they watched competing clubs inking superstar players while instead the Mets seemed to embrace the old Wilpon method of scrap heap picking or overpaying for oft-injured players who theoretically will somehow keep themselves off the IL.

Most people have come to accept the financial realities of the 2024 season being the result of the free spending ways of Steve Cohen's first few years of ownership which pushed them into payroll tax levels never before experienced and lingering for players no longer wearing Mets uniforms.  While no one is tremendously happy with the transition year between the buy-a-pennant of 2023 and the build-a-pennant of 2025.  No one knows for sure what to expect for 2024 but the post season is likely at best a long shot result unlikely to happen.

The opportunities being given to younger players to get at least a half season's worth of steady play will help the front office make determinations about what to do with the roster when the earnest effort to play October baseball begins when this season ends.  Towards that end people are holding out hope that Francisco Alvarez will continue to progress and that the pair of Brett Baty and Mark Vientos will demonstrate in the major leagues what caught everyone's eyes as they worked their ways up through the minors.


Imagine, therefore, the surprise and contradiction of the Mets now theoretically reaching out to talk to DH extraordinaire J.D. Martinez who, with less than a week until spring training begins, finds himself without a job despite hitting .271 with 33 HRs and 103 RBIs for the Dodgers in 2023.  At that time he was paid a relatively modest $10 million for that level of production and with the older Justin Turner having just signed a $13 million deal (with incentives possibly bringing it up to $14.5 million) would now suggest that the younger and more productive Martinez is going to get at least that much.

In and of itself, there is absolutely nothing wrong with bringing strong protection to the middle of the Mets batting order.  Despite their poor pitching last year, it seemed that their inability to score runs stood out even more.  Having Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez 3-4-5 in the batting order with solid bats like Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Alvarez and a recovering Starling Marte complementing them suggests that the team could indeed be putting a solid lineup on the field with only the third base position somewhat of a question.

Therein lies the rub.  Do you honestly believe in the combine offense and defense of Brett Baty, writing off what he did in 2023?  Is it possible that Mark Vientos' bat more than makes up for his suspect glove to enable him to play regularly alongside Lindor?  Or are the Mets willing to capitulate to the naysayers and bring in the 36 year old veteran Martinez to fortify the attack and remove one of two variables from the mix?


Personally, there seem to be issues with uncertainty in the starting rotation and while they've finally done some efforts to shoring up the heretofore leaky bullpen, the pitching in general is not of the shutdown variety.  Consequently aiding what could be a struggle on the mound by enhancing the offense can make some sense.  

The question is what that temporary change for 2024 will do for the trade value or game potential of Brett Baty and/or Mark Vientos in 2025 and the future if they both don't get to play?

Personally, I'm off the J.D. Martinez bandwagon.  If he was again available at $10 million I might get lured back on board, but an extra $3 to $4.5 million to match Justin Turner would seem to be money ill spent as the team is not simply one bat away from October baseball.

16 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

My brother's view...sign JD Martinez to one year, even if that takes $20 million, then if the Mets are out of it near the trade deadline, like last season, trade him. That way, you spend say $13 million with no hangover to 2024.

I introduce an Open Thread question later this AM on this subject, spanning JDM and another player of renown. We are very close to spring training, so deals will soon be happening, I'd imagine.

If those two moves are made, I'd think your statement that "No one knows for sure what to expect for 2024 but the post season is likely at best a long shot result unlikely to happen" is invalidated. I think the playoff odds would then rise dramatically, to "probable" from iffy. Prognosticators believe the Mets will go 84-78 right now, and that got Az in the playoffs in 2023.

Mack Ade said...

Look

Signing Martinez pushes Vientos to the bench again

Enough

Play the kids

bill metsiac said...

Right on, Mack! If Vientos doesn't have a spot to play every day, his only value would be trade bait, and a sell-low one at that.

Having lived through watching Justin Turner, Jeff Kent, Nolan Ryan, and others thrive elsewhere because of poor decisions by Mets management, I would hate to see repeats with MV..

Give him the DH spot every day until July, and then decide whether keep him or trade him (or send him upstate). Don't give up on him.

SteveM said...

Ditto Mack and Bill.

With too many questions, adding Martinez may answer one for 2024. It will not answer the other questions on the starting pitching, the relief corp, the younger players, so on.

Mack Ade said...

Right on Mack!!!

Oh. That's me

Biden moment

TexasGusCC said...

Tom, I don’t think we need an open thread on the topic when Reese presents it right here. While we all love our prospects, and we love our own, is it worth it to lean on them so much that it handicaps the lineup? Then, as Reese points out, there are much more questions on the mound; do they need more hitting? Then, people talk about the price, does it matter to this team right now? I’m actually glad that I am not David Stearns on this, LOLLLL.

Anonymous said...

Sign JD then package McNeil,Vientos for one of the Marlins starters.

TexasGusCC said...

The thing about Martinez is he had 103 RBI’s in just 479 plate appearances, driving home Betts and Freeman all the time. That may not be there. Too, he spent time on the IL and probably will again, but hard to say how much after several consecutive years of full season at bats. Then, you have his increasing chase and strike out rate…..He saw much less fastballs and much more sliders and cutters…. I am on the fence on this. Let me dwell on it.

Tom Brennan said...

Dwell if you must, Gus. This was primarily a Bauer post, and if you do Bauer, then why not Martinez too, to make it 80% likely to make the playoffs vs. 40%.

After all, if the team payroll is over $300 million AND you don't make the playoffs again, that is awful.

Two ways he won't cut that much into Vientos' at bats? Guys, including JDM and Marte, will need to rest AND guys get hurt. That is clear if you look at 2021, 2022, and 2023.

Also, if they fall out of it and sell off, Vientos and Baty can both play 55 games in August and September.

Of course, we assume Stearns is 1) astute and 2) has a much better read on Mark and Brett right now than we do. He'll make the right choice, most likely. If Mauricio hadn't gotten injured, rendering him unlikely to play in 2024, I would definitely NOT want JD Martinez.

Paul Articulates said...

I think David Stearns will be judged on his long term strategic approach. Signing short term success players at the cost of the future goes against this. Stay the course, play the kids, and if it works out he is a genius.

TexasGusCC said...

Stearns promised that they would “get a chance”. But, that’s all he promised. Ok, I’m convinced. Get JDM. What good is a $300MM payroll if you aren’t going for it at least somewhat?

Anonymous said...

I agree with you completely Reese on JD Martinez. I loved the guy on Boston, but it is a little later and for a little too much dinero.

I might prefer using Starling Marte in the DH to open the season just to get him up and running on all4 cylinders again.

Maybe then have an outfield of LF Jeff McNeil CF Harry Bader RF Brandon Nimmo. Just to open the season and get Starling reacclimated to the daily MLB grind.

Anonymous said...

The two bag goes to Joey Wendle in the above suggestion at least until Marte gets his feet back under him to start the season.

Anonymous said...

If both Baty and Vientos have really good ST's, and they could, then they could be figured into the 3B and DH roles after Starling Marte is whole again and ready for everyday RF.

Anonymous said...

I began discussing the starting rotation a few days ago. But had not realized then, that one of my favorite left-handed starters Eduardo Rodriquez, had signed an $80 million 4-year contract with Arizona. Eduardo would have been perfect here as a NY Met in the three hole after Senga and Severino. But is a bit pricey and had a Covid19 issue of longer duration.

So...

This is the 2024 NY Mets Opening Day rotation that I might like best to see.

1. Kodai Senga 2. Luis Severino 3. Tyler Stuart 4. Sean Manaea 5. With an open ST Competition between: Lucchesi, Megill, and Houser with the winner taking the fifth spot, and the other two taking the sixth starter spot and seventh starter spot along with middle relief to stay sharp throughout the season.

I feel that the above three are the best three starters for these roles at current on this ball club.

I just simply do not see what Mets' management sees in LSP Jose Quintana, and I am sorry to admit this.

Jose hasn't pitched well since really 2017, and career wise he gives up a hit an inning (which is par), has an overall ERA is so-so at 3.74. His fastball tops off at very low 90's and he has never won more than 13 games a season in his entire career. Plus, he is 35 years old, and we have been down that path before. There will be teams that need another decent starting pitcher, so I would recommend Jose in a trade for maybe like two MiLB decent two players back.

Now fans here most likely won't like my Tyler Stuart suggestion for the '24 Mets rotation most likely. But go watch more video on him youtube.com He is an awesome natural born pitcher with excellent ball movement and power on his fastball. He could do this now here. Trust me.

Anon said...

MeGill is the key! He can either be the #2 starter or the 8th inning guy. A lot ride on him I think.