While there has been a great deal of attention paid to the Mets' inability to lure any of the top ten free agents to become players in orange and blue (or variations thereof), questions have continued to be raised about what has and has not been accomplished.
A great many people feel that the need to protect Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor in the lineup screamed out loud for the addition of another middle of the order bat who would represent a solid offensive addition and make opposing pitchers reluctant to pitch around the team's dynamic duo.
Others feel that the team has some potentially good offensive power in the forms of current Baby Mets Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos and Brett Baty. With Ronny Mauricio's untimely injury keeping him off the field for much of if not the entirety of 2024, it is a unique opportunity to the front office and rookie manager Carlos Mendoza to ascertain just what they have in-house. To perceive of Alvarez as a 30 HR hitter is not a major stretch given his 25 HR deput in under 400 ABs last season. The potential lumber Baty and Vientos bring long term is still unknown.
Many have written about the improved defense with Harrison Bader prepared to patrol the outfield either in a late inning replacement role or as part of a platoon with someone as yet unidentified. Bader's Gold Glove caliber defensive work is widely respected. His ability to stay on the field and off the IL, however, is far less a certainty.
The selection of pitchers has been to contrast styles and make it somewhat more difficult for opposing hitters. Having a staff who simply delivers fastballs, curves and sliders without thought to arm angle, velocity, spin rate and the periphery of the box does not accomplish this challenge. Many of the incoming pitchers do not have the traditional metrics that jump off the page but do seem to fit the pitching lab mindset.
One aspect of the Mets offensive attack that has not gotten nearly as much attention is base running speed. Obviously folks know what to expect from Francisco Lindor in a given season just as they will acknowledge what a fully recovered Starling Marte can provide in this regard.
Two under-the-radar moves could prove somewhat beneficial in this regard. When healthy, the aforementioned Harrison Bader has 20+ stolen base capability. The Mets have not had the luxury of pinch running much with the roster in the past and Bader adds to his resume with this ability.
The other one is the little known Joey Wendle brought on board to replace Luis Guillorme. While no one disputed what Guillorme could do with his glove, he was at best an average hitter and a well below average baserunner. For his career, Guillorme was a .261 hitter with 5 HRs and 4 SBs over the course of 721 ABs. Wendle is a similar .263 hitter, but then the comparisons stop. He's hit 32 HRs and stolen 61 bases over the course of 2106 ABs. Triple Guillorme's numbers and you don't even come close.
The success of the New York Mets during 2024 depends as heavily on the recovery of Starling Marte, the development of the trio of Baby Mets and the revisions made to the starting rotation and bullpen. Lost somewhere in this mix is the increase of speed and enhancement of defense. A week from now we'll start seeing whether or not how effective these changes really are.
24 comments:
Wendle and Bader are speed AND defensive upgrades. I think the consensus now is 84-78. Maybe the team outperforms into July and makes some acquisitions then. If you acquire 60% of the way thru, you get a lot more talent per salary dollar, since you’re only paying their salary for the last 40% to 45% of the season.
The problem they have with payroll is that there is not much they can do right now to bring it down significantly unless they entertained a major trade involving Francisco Lindor. Don't expect to see that happen. Fortunately some of the 2024 payroll money falls away after this upcoming season ends.
One way they can bring down the payroll is to not pay for 36 year old bats. I see some ink that there have been talks with JD Martinez recently. IMHO, that is the wrong move for two reasons: First, the message it is sending to the younger guys. Why keep stringing them along? They developed them over the last 5 years, now play them to see what they have! It will do Vientos no good to sit on the bench all year. Second, the aforementioned payroll.
OK, maybe it does not bring down the payroll to not sign somebody, but it does not go up either.
My bet is that signing Martinez at this point in his career will be a worse signing than Jason Bay.
Bill, I agree, especially when you consider that if they have $15 million to use at the trade deadline, but you’re only paying for 40 to 45% of those players 2024 salary, you can really sign two $15 million guys whose contracts expire at the end of 2024, or whom you’d really like to see on the team beyond 2024. I think the fans need to realize that and be patient at this point. You could get JD Martinez for 20 million for one year, I’d have to think about that. Why guys always get injured and having one more bet that should be potent if not as good as last year would be a significant measure of insurance. If Ronnie Mauricio hadn’t gotten hurt, however, I would say absolutely not on JD Martinez.
You have to find out what Vientos can do.
Make him the DH
Sign two $15 million guys THEN, at a cost of under $15 million for the remains 60-70 games that is.
A great concept Reese but the Mets have never had a good base running/ base stealing coach. Like the Dodgers had Dave Lopes, the Mets had Mookie Wilson. Mookie should have been coaching more at least in spring training. Also, smart guys like Lee Mazzilli could have helped. Maz was amazing to listen to on radio and coached first base for the Yankees successfully for years under Torre. Where were the Mets? How about Beltran? I know he only wants to manage, but would he hold court at least during the spring?
But, there are other guys that knew how to read a pitcher and steal bases and these players could have helped Nimmo and McNeil get better reads. Too, there’s a stat I read quite a while ago that a stolen base leads to a run only 16% of the time, so why risk injury? I think it was Alderson’s stat or thinking…
Good point Gus
Bring someone at least for the ST period to work with the runners
I'm with Mack. If we sign a bat for DH, then Vientos might ascwell be trade bait. He has no other way to get ABs than playing every day, and it's DH or bust.
Give him the spot until July. If he fails, pick up someone else and trade him. By next year, we shiuld have new "babies" coming up who are more versatile than MV and will need playing time.
It's basically "now or never" for Mark.
Vientos might come through. How about 230,20,65. That’s pretty good.
Let's not give up on Vientos before he is given a legitimate shot.
I agree on Vientos, but this was supposed to be a less stressed year (if that even exists in New York). If the kid knows he has two months, and better succeed or he is gone, is that less stress?
And how do you like Showalter making the rounds talking about how great a manager he was and having Zack Scott have to take to Twitter to basically defend Billy Eppler and say that front offices don’t dictate lineups?
I will say it one more time
You can't keep drafting players, giving out international bonus money, working them through the chain, and then sitting them on the bench or putting a gun to their heads and tell them they have X amount of games to prove their worth
Play 2023 as a building year
Start Alvarez at catcher
Start Baty at third
Make Vientos your full time DH
And keep moving Williams, Acuña, and Gilbert through the chain.
ABSOLUTELY, Mack! That's why signing a veteran DH now makes no sense.
Thumbs down on JD! Sure he might make us a contender but it means Vientos never gets a shot. There’s no way he plays 3B. He might be a power guy.
Do T forget that Wendle andcTaylor ought to get at least 500 at bats between them.
Gus, do not gripe when someday, Jett and Luis often swipe.
Vientos won’t last 50 games. A 190 BA will have him back in Syracuse by late May forcing an early call up of Gilbert. Martinez batting in the middle of the order and they have a chance at the playoffs.
Koos, I once wrote this in a SEPTEMBER 2017 ARTICLE:
Tom Brennan - MY METS PROSPECTS # 7: MARK VIENTOS.
In the 2017 2nd round, the Mets picked young and powerful again, with Mark Vientos, who will only turn 18 around Christmastime. So far, he looks like a superior pick to me.
The extremely young Vientos played 51 games for mostly the GCL Mets (last 4 at Kingsport). Playing 51 games at SS for mostly the GCL Mets, he impressed, hitting .262/.318/.398.
Once August showed up on the calendar, he was even more impressive the rest of the way: .305/.340/.467 in 27 games, with just 21 Ks in 112 plate appearances.
In 23 games at SS, just 4 errors. In 14 games at 3B, just 2 errors. Just 6 errors in 37 starts for a 17 year old? Far better than Gavin Cecchini circa 2016. Quite impressive.
I could see Mark as a 21 year old opening day 3rd baseman for the Mets in 2021, admittedly a long look into the future.
SUCH A LONG TIME AGO.
Prospects be prospects,you never know.Unfortunately it looks like Vientos won’t make it.
I fumed all last season about vientos playing time. I'm thinking, is this guy hitting on bucks or epplers daughter? What's going on. We could have gotten a better feel but I know, water under the bridge. I think there's an even chance vientos could hit 25 to 30 homers as there is for JDs back to give out again
Koos, I think Vientos will surprise you.
Mike Schmidt as a rookie: .196/.324/.373.
Year two: .283/.395/.546.
Vientos isn’t Schmidt, but I think Vientos 2024 is a lot better than Vientos 2023.
Give him that chance.
OK
Last night I looked at the pitching over the last three years.
In 2021, at home 284 runs (267 earned) with 93 home runs over 703 innings for a 3.45 ERA. On the road 384 runs (330 earned) with 97 HRs over 676.1 inning for a 4.39 ERA. A ERA difference of .94.
In 2022, at home 266 runs (250 earned) with 68 home runs over 736 innings for a 3.06 ERA. On the road 340 runs (320) earned with 101 home runs over 702 innings for a 4.10 ERA.
In 2023 at home 341 runs (317 earned) with 90 home runs over 729 innings for a 3.91 ERA. On the road, 388 runs (361 earned) with 100 home runs over 687 innings for a 4.73 ERA.
From an ERA viewpoint, the team gave up 0.94, 1.04 and .82 fewer earned runs at home each year for the last three years. Except for 2022, the home run splits were pretty close. Looking at home runs per nine, the pitchers gave up about 1.11 to 1.31 home runs per nine. At home in 2022, the pitchers have up 0.83 home runs per nine. Reason for 54-27 home record?
Did the pitchers have a home run advantage at home as opposed to on the road in 2021 and 2023? The splits seem to be pretty even. The home split for 2022 stands out. A deeper look into the pitchers on that 2022 staff should be done.
Would moving the fences in be an advantage, disadvantage or net neutral?
I would advocate (which appears that I am), there is no need to move the fences in. Get the batters to hit with the same philosophy as in 2022. Look at the type of pitchers from 2022 and try to develop a similiar staff.
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