Jonah Tong has given “prospect experts” the biggest “F.U.” this year, that is undeniable. Thornton is easily the next pitching prospect to have earned that right, because of how “experts” continue to marginalize his tremendous potential, despite stellar production.
Despite only having 1-year of experience at the D-1 level, Thornton was quickly promoted to Brooklyn during his 1st professional season & he more then held his own. During his 2024 season, Thornton delivered five quality outings, and only two non-quality outings.
5 - Quality Outings: 21.2 IP | 1.27 ERA | 3 ER | 19 K | 15 H | 2 BB
2 - Other Outings: 5.1 IP | 8 ER | 15 H
Only a superficial glance of Thornton’s numbers, over-reliance of analytics, & subscribing to the industry’s obsession of fastball velocity, could enable an “expert” to overlook Thornton’s seamless transition from the college ranks to facing advanced High-A lineups within a year of being drafted.
Pitchers drafted out of college who make their debuts in High-A ball usually have at least 3 years of full-time experience at the D-1 level. Despite showing an ability to dominate advanced hitters with a quality 5-pitch arsenal, Thornton appeared on only one Mets Top 30 Prospects list, #29 { Baseball America }.
When you see a young, inexperienced player, deemed as only having “average stuff” dominate higher levels of competition with relative ease, & flashing above average tools with a degree of regularity it makes previous underestimations of his abilities appear outright bizarre or mind-boggling. That’s how you know. Remind you of any other prospects? Tong? Mclean? Scott?
Thornton is that caliber of prospect in his own right. Thornton isn’t just quickly establishing himself as a potential impact starting pitcher, he’s doing it in a manner that suggests the “experts” continually underestimating his abilities should contemplate a career change, or as Alec Baldwin says in the movie "The Departed":
As impressive as Thornton was in 2024, he has elevated his game to new heights in 2025. Pitching with conviction, a high-level of confidence, and a tactical approach to attacking hitters that is downright lethal. He isn’t nibbling corners and hoping for weak contact or bad swings. Thornton is using his above-average 5-pitch arsenal to systematically dispose of hitters with extreme prejudice and surgical pitch efficiency. Christian Scott only other Mets prospect who has ever registered a 4% BB-rate. Remarkable.
“He’s pitching like he’s mad at the grass…”
Thornton was assigned to Brooklyn for the start of 2025, and quickly earned a promotion to Double-A after overpowering hitters in 3 of his 4 first 4 outings. After brief adjustment period to Double-A, Thornton then delivered the best start of his career, 6.1 perfect innings and 6 strike outs. Thornton was matching Tong start-for-start, accumulating stellar numbers for the Rumble Ponies before suffering a minor oblique injury that has since landed him on the IL.
If not for his injury, Thornton could have accomplished the rare feat of pitching for 3 minor league levels in the same season, a distinction usually ascertained by 1st RD draft picks or pitchers with “elite stuff”, i.e. Brandon Sproat 2024.
As important as scouting reports are, when a player produces the type of numbers Thornton has produced in 2024 & 2025, it signals the need to create a new scouting report from scratch.
Thornton is a "Pitcher", not just a "Thrower", and he knows how to compete and win. In short order, he will soon become an impact pitcher for the Mets, I don't care what the rankings say.
If you're a prospect expert who keeps marginalizing Thornton's exciting potential, all I have to say to you is, "I'll take a double Jameson. Neat."...
Zach Thornton Pitching Arsenal:
Fastball: 50 Grade: deception & plus command: generates high whiff rates
- averages 92-93 mph (up from 90-91 in 2024), tops out at 94 MPH
- 2200-2400 RPMs || 3.9” IVB || 7.3” horizontal break
Slider: 55 Grade:
- mid-80s with sharp 2-plane break:
- 2400-2500 RPMs || 3.9” IVB || 7.3” horizontal break
Curveball: 50 Grade:
- Mid-70s with an 11-5 shape and huge depth
Changeup: 50 Grade:
- Mid-to-high 80s
- 2400 RPMs || 6.4” of IVB || 3.3” of horizontal break
Cutter: 50 grade| Mid-to-high 80s |2400 RPMs: 6.4” IVB:| 3.3” Horizontal break
2025 Split Statistics:
Versus RHB: Versus LHB:
210 Batters faced 65 Batters Faced 59 Strikeouts 19 Strikeouts
8 Walks 3 Walks
28% K-Rate 30% K-Rate
3.8% BB-Rate 4.7% BB-Rate
0.75 WHIP 1.11 WHIP
|| 2025 Season Statistics || 14 Game Starts ||
|| 6 Wins || 2 Losses || 72.2 IP || 28% K-RATE || 4% BB-RATE ||
|| 78 K || 48 H || 8 BB || 16 ER ||
|| 1.98 ERA || .187 BAA || 0.81 WHIP ||
Links to Video Highlights:
THORNTON: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS TO FELLOW 2023 DRAFT PICKS:
3 comments:
May this Zach be as good as Zack.
Thornton is a big, athletic lefty whose velocity has continued to rise towards the mid-90’s, with seemingly pinpoint control. A definite keeper with #2 starter upside. Shame about the injury (thankfully not an elbow or shoulder), but hopefully he gets back before season’s end, and ready to start the year or get a quick promotion to AAA in ‘26.
Agree 100%, I think we might see him continue to add velocity as he continues to build strength, there is more room for projection and his delivery is very efficient and he’s plus athlete.
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