JONAH TONG : HEIST OF THE CENTURY?

First number:

 

106:

 

Number of pitchers drafted ahead of Jonah Tong during the 2022 MLB Draft.

 

Second number:

 

$997,864.42.

 

The average signing bonus for 104 pitchers drafted before Tong. Only two pitchers drafted in the first seven rounds did not sign with their teams that year.

 

Brandon Sproat & Nolan McLean

 

Last number:

 

$104,003,900.

Combined total signing bonuses awarded to the first 105 pitchers drafted 2022 MLB Draft, including Tong’s $226,000 signing bonus. 

 

Tong’s signing bonus accounted for 0.22% of the $104 million, not even one-half percent was spent to sign arguably the most talented pitcher selected during the entire draft! 

 

Rangers, Cubs, & Braves spent $25 million on 10 pitchers drafted within the first 143 selections, almost 25% of total spent for first 105 pitchers drafted.

 

Tong hasn’t just outperformed members of 2022 Draft Class, same can be said about several 1st round picks in 2021 & 2023 as well. Tens of millions of dollars spent on high school prospects, despite their historically high levels of risk and volatility.

 

How did teams justify spending huge percentages of their allotted bonus pool funds for so many high-risk prospect, while ignoring a prospect with Tong’s potential even in the middle rounds?

Was it because Tong was another dreaded “cold-weather” prospect or the level of competition he faced?

 

Was Tong’s ceiling diminished because of the industry’s increasing obsession with average fastball velocity? 

 

Whatever made the other 29 teams ignore Tong’s potential, did not prevent the Mets from making him a top priority, despite their recent trend of focusing on college pitchers. Instead, they capitalized on the opportunity cost of acquiring a pitcher with tremendous upside, who was being overlooked for all the wrong reasons.

Tong's Pre-Draft Scouting Report: 

 

•           Fastball in the low-mid 90s, with rising action

•           12-6 Curveball with spin rates topping out at 2800

•           Changeup generates high number of swings and misses

 

Tong’s physical stature and 6’1 height doesn’t scream plus potential projection. 2025 4th round pick, Peter Kussow, is a prospect that SCREAMS plus plus projection because of his plus athleticism and jacked up 6’5 frame. 

 

What makes Tong the “Heist of the Century”? A distinction that cannot be earned simply from being drafted in the 7th round, he’s not Tom Brady.

 

Tong had a monster 2024 season, only to follow that up with a HISTORIC 2025 season against more advanced AA hitters. Tong is posting eye-popping numbers in almost every statistical category, despite being one of the youngest pitchers in the league. 

2025 Season Statistics:

|| 1.72 ERA || 138 K || 43 H || 0.90 WHIP ||

|| 0.141 BAA || 40% K-Rate || 14 K/9 ||

 

•           One out away from a 13-strikeout PERFECT GAME 

•           Only 43 hits allowed during 2025 season

•           Hasn’t given up more then 12 hits in a month

•           Only given up 17 ER all season

•           13 outings of 1 or fewer ER allowed

 

Tong’s pitching arsenal has become exponentially more lethal during his professional career, and it will only continue to improve as he matures.

 

FASTBALL:

 

Saw a significant velocity bump this past winter, facilitating an average velocity in the mid-90s, topping out at 99 mph. Same elite IVB, same above average spin rates. Mets expect another velocity bump this winter, which is why they already started limiting his innings and pitch counts for the final stretch of the season.

 

A potential 70-80 grade pitch.

 

CURVEBALL:

 

Has maintained its elite spin rates, monster 12-6 break, and now he’s throwing it for strikes in any count, while incrementally increasing the pitch’s velocity. 

 

Potential 60-70 grade pitch. 

 

VULCAN CHANGEUP:

 

Tong upgraded his changeup this past off-season, and it has become arguably his most devastating pitch. Williams’ “Air Bender” Vulcan changeup is a legit 80-grade pitch. Tong’s new Vulcan changeup has exhibited shockingly identical similarities to the “Air Bender” based on pitch shape, sharp late break, velocity, spin rate, and spin efficiency.

 

Potential 70-80 grade pitch. 

 

(Our next installment about Tong will be include a comprehensive analysis of all three pitches, while providing analytical data to support the projections listed above.)

 

Tong’s approach for attacking hitters makes him extremely fun to watch, which is why he is commonly referred to as, “Crazy J.T” when he takes the mound. The polite young man from the suburbs, turns into an absolute monster, unleashing an alternate personality altogether. Devastating arsenal combined with a cerebral approach to pitching resembles that of Kodak Senga.

Nobody could’ve predicted his pitching arsenal had the potential to improve exponentially in such a short time, if ever. Tong isn't even remotely close to being a finished product. That's why the Mets aren't even remotely considering adding him to their roster during the 2025 season in any capacity.

Its not because Tong isn't ready, its because the Mets are finished building their version of "FRANKENSTEIN".

Perhaps Tong is a message from “the Baseball Gods”, stop obsessing over analytics, enough with the bloody acronyms, and get back to watching more baseball and not staring at spreadsheets. Start watching prospects from all corners of the recruiting map, and stop neglecting ones from “cold weather states or regions”. If industry experts don’t heed this warning, maybe they’ll create another Jonah Tong as punishment. If they do, I have confidence David Stearns will find him too.

 

Minimal draft capital.

Historic career numbers. 

Rapid progression through the minors at a young age. 

Devastating pitching arsenal with potentially three 70-grade pitches.

 

HEIST.

OF.

THE.

CENTURY.