7/17/25

Tom Brennan: The Core Four vs. Every Other Mets Hitter

THURSDAY TASTY TRADE TIDBITS, EVERYONE!!

Let’s get right to it.

The Mets initially had a hitting “core three”, and were ever-so-fortunate to end up with a “core four”, once Pete Alonso was re-signed for 2025.

- Where would this team be without Pete? Seriously?

Through Saturday, that Core Four - Soto, Alonso, Lindor and Nimmo - had 1,416 at bats, and had an aggregate slash line of .268/.360/.495.

That included 76 doubles, 81 homers, and 240 RBIs. 

Very solid. Indispensable, frankly. Especially in the HRs and RBIs.

The rest of the team?

Roughly, calculating in my head, .223/.293/.350.

The lowest team batting average, OBP, and RBIs were .220 (White Sox), .291 (Colorado), and .339 (Pittsburgh). So, the non-core non-four are hitting collectively that poorly, in 56% of the team’s at bats.

The Mets have been patient, hoping for more development, with the non-core younguns.  

But all non-core are not alike.

To be further incisive, veterans McNeil and Marte combined, in the non-core-four category, are hitting well, at .259/.344/.410 in 360 at bats, with 50 RBIs, which frankly is very solid. 

If you’ve been displeased with them, your displeasure is misplaced. They’ve contributed solidly for not being in the core-four.

The rest of the hitters beyond those six collectively have been awful. I’d guess around .210/.280/.325. (I left my calculator in my desk, and can’t find my abacus, sorry).

But I am not telling you anything you don’t already know. I hope.

If one assumes that Marte’s IL stint is more preventative in nature, to try to ensure he does not break down during the stretch drive and playoffs, and that he’ll be back shortly after the ASB, you then look at what to do with the other unimpressive hitting slots.

Alvarez? He is pounding in Syracuse, with 7 HRs since being sent down. Call him up right after the ASB, send Senger down. And hope this demotion ignites the mystery slugger with 11 RBIs named Alvarez.

That leaves CF, 3B, and DH to fix.

Is Winker going to help?  Who knows, but I would say yes. I am guessing a short rehab stint starts right after the break.  We clearly cut ties with achy Jesse after this season. I like him, but injuries are often one sign of decline.

Taylor (.207) should be a 5th outfielder, not a starter. He fields great, but has really slid offensively from last year’s .248

There are no suitable replacements in AAA (no, Drew Gilbert fans, .249 in AAA does not scream “he’s the guy!” But he is hitting a whole lot better in the first 11 games of July than he did in April, May and June, so who knows).  

Trade for an OF, and put Nimmo back in CF if need be.

3B? Mauricio, Baty, and Vientos have hit poorly, by and large.  They’ve had almost 100 games to stake their claim to 3B/DH, and as 2B back ups.  Not a good resume for them, although Baty has torn it up at home (.276/.336/.526, vs. a miserable .173/.223/.269 on the road). 

Last year, Baty hit miserably at home, but strongly on the road, so who knows what to make of that?

Get someone, anyway, who can hit better to play every day. Move one of those 3 under-performers elsewhere, and the remaining two get the remaining ABs. A problem there is none hit lefties well, with Vientos, Baty, and Mo combining for just 18 hits in 108 at bats vs. southpaws. 

(In fact, the whole team is hitting much lower against lefties - that needs to be addressed at the deadline.)

A trade for Marcel Ozuna might be an answer but he is hitting .229 v. lefties (but .319 last year). And he really is a DH only, so that is a limiting factor.

Anyway, do you agree we need to add two stretch drive hitters (one OF, one 3B/DH), and who would you grab? 

Who would you deal to get the hitters the team can import?


9 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Every great basketball team needs three great shooters

Every great hockey team needs two great lines

And every great baseball team has at least five great bopper

Starlin Marte was heating up but came up lame. Maybe he can be the fifth

Past that... this season... my money is on McNeil

Tom Brennan said...

I still hope for Winker…good on base %, decent power #s. But his second injury has me skeptical.

Tom Brennan said...

And all fingers crossed for Francisco Alvarez, after he had water thrown in his face with his demotion.

Mack Ade said...

I look at Alvarez' eventual return as that guy who le those troops against Crazy Horse

His name was Custer

Tom Brennan said...

Hopefully, instead of Custer, he can hit like Buster…Posey.

Gary Seagren said...

Alvy's return along with SOTO ACUALLY HITTING HIGHER THAN .150 WITH RISP (sorry for the shouting) and the return of Senga and Manaea and we should be rolling. Of course I would get Chapman for the BP and leave Ronnie Mo at third.

Dean said...

Wow, sound like a bunch of Debbie downers lately. I take the opposite approach we have not yet played our best ball and we are a 1/2 game out of first. Yes our core or top 4 hitters are doing ok with Alonzo doing better than expected. I see the second half of the season with Alonzo probably coming back to earth a little and Soto and Lindor having a hot second half with Nimmo being steady. If you compare our next 6 top hitters with the rest of the National Leagues next top 6 we are better then them all except for the dodgers and even with the Phillies. I'm betting on Alvarez, Mauricio, and Vientos improving, not confident in Baty. McNeil will be solid as typically a better 2nd half player, and fingers crossed on Marte and Winkler. Our pitching has taken a hit but looks like we will start the second half rotation with what we were expected to start the season with.
Our bullpen and Centerfield need to be the priorities at the deadline. I also would like to see our stud pitching prospects brought up to work out of the bullpen towards the end of the year as they will all be past career high in innings pitched so limiting them for an inning or two would be a good thing with the possibility of catching lightning in a bottle with a stacked bullpen.

Tom Brennan said...

Dean, just saw your comment. Not “Debbie Downer” to point out the obvious: 4 core and 2 close-to-core hitters all doing well, and the rest who collectively get an F grade. That latter cohort needs to do much, much better. You are confident in Mark Vientos, who has hit poorly all year, a miserable .245 OBP in his last 30 games, and is 8 for 59 (.136) with RISP, no sped and weak D. Why confident? The Mets have played 60% of their games and gotten that. I’d definitely look for an upgrade there and trade him. Have a nice day,

Tom Brennan said...

Vientos has a -0.6 WAR this year. I’ve seen this movie before…it is called Dominic Smith. I have written repeatedly that mark is far too passive on strike one, which rushes him towards counts with 2 strikes, and is then miserable on strike 2 counts (.135). He is just as passive on strike one this year as last. That is just not at all smart. I prefer smart hitters.