MACK - MY Friday Observations - My Overall Thoughts on the 2025 Draft - John Bay, David Peterson, David Robertson, Mets Rotation, David Bednar, Taylor Ward, Nick Martinez, Zack Littell

 

Morning Thoughts

I now have had a few days to think about this draft in its entirety and I am sharing my overall thoughts here.

First, by being shoved back ten slots for their first pick, and then losing their second round pick due to the Juan Soto sign, they had only one pick in the first 100 people picked. This is not the way to start off this process and look for any success.

Add to that one of the smallest money draft pools… around the same as the entire bonus they gave Elian Pena, and it just keeps getting worse.

I do like their first pick (Mitch Voit) and Peter Kussow could be a great future starter, but, past that, the picks go (IMO) from a crap shoot to just plain crap.

I thought there were better names left on the board here, but I always do.

Maybe David Stearns gathered his draft team and said “look guys, we don’t have much to spend here and there isn’t much left on the board, so go find me a ton of reclamation project pitchers that I can lineup in the lab all off season”.

Whatever their motive was, all of us have to go into this right now as a draft push and, frankly, don’t be upset if this one goes down as a clunker.

The good news is two or three of these damaged pitchers are tuned up and return to the racetrack.

OF John Bay from Austin Peay has a UDFA deal with the New York Mets!

Hometown: Shattuck, Oklahoma

High School: Shattuck High School, where he was an all-state performer in baseball. Bay was also a multi-sport athlete, starring in football and basketball, leading his high school to three consecutive Class B state football championships.

Personal: Born May 16, 2001, to Mark and Kerie Bay, with three siblings (Jake, Jena, and Josh). His father played football at Southwestern Oklahoma State. Bay’s favorite athlete is Nolan Arenado, and he has cited playing in the all-state game during the COVID pandemic as a favorite baseball moment.

Collegiate Career

Oklahoma State University (2021-2022):  Bay redshirted in 2021 at Oklahoma State University.

In the summer of 2021, he played for the Pulaski River Turtles in the Appalachian League, leading the league with 10 home runs.

Austin Peay State University (2024-2025):     Transferred to Austin Peay, where he had a breakout 2025 season, earning significant accolades:    NCBWA Third Team All-America (2025)

First Team All-ASUN (2025)

Second Team All-ASUN (prior year)

ABCA All-Southeast Region (2024)

In 2025, Bay posted an impressive batting line of .360/.507/.769, showcasing elite hitting, on-base skills, and power.

Known as “Johnny Barrels” for his hitting prowess, Bay was a standout for Austin Peay, with some describing his season as “absolutely ridiculous.”

Height/Weight: 6’1”, 211-216 lbs

Position: Outfielder

Attributes: Bay is recognized for his power hitting, as evidenced by his Appalachian League home run title and his stellar 2025 college stats. He’s considered a high-upside player with the physical tools to be a difference-maker at the collegiate level and potentially in professional baseball.

Pitch Profiler                             @pitchprofiler

David Petersons' best stuff of the season was on display tonight!

 

David Robertson

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6493924/2025/07/15/david-robertson-free-agent-workouts/

Veteran right-hander David Robertson, a free agent since the end of last season, is throwing for interested clubs, The Athletic has learned.

Several teams, including the New York Mets and New York Yankees, have at least recently looked into Robertson, league sources said. Multiple teams expect to attend one of his throwing sessions within the next week.

Robertson hasn’t pitched in a game since last September after opting out of his contract with the Texas Rangers in the offseason. (Kiyoshi Mio / Imagn Images)

Robertson, who turned 40 in April, hasn’t appeared in a game since late last September. While pitching for the Texas Rangers, he continued to defy concerns over his age with another productive season. In 72 innings (68 games), he had a 3.00 ERA with 99 strikeouts and 27 walks. From 2022-24, he averaged 63 appearances per season with a collective 2.82 ERA. His cutter averaged 93.3 mph in 2023 and 2024 after checking in at 93 mph in 2022.

 

How reliable is the rotation?

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6493419/2025/07/16/mets-second-half-trade-deadline/

The Mets finished the first half with the fourth-best rotation ERA in the majors, behind only the Phillies, Rangers and Royals. That’s good. But there was a pretty big divide in how that rotation performed through June 13 and afterward.

 What had been the best rotation by ERA for 2 1/2 months was 29th in ERA over the last month. A lot of that owes to injuries: The Mets lost Kodai Senga on June 12, Tylor Megill on June 17 and Griffin Canning on June 27. Before Senga and Sean Manaea returned this past weekend, New York was essentially running a three-man rotation with a mix of spot starters and bulk guys to flesh it out.

Now the Mets have less than two weeks to evaluate whether the returns of Senga, Manaea and Frankie Montas are enough to return the rotation to its status as a team strength. All three looked solid in Kansas City, though Montas hasn’t exactly looked trustworthy over his handful of starts to this point.

Barring another significant injury — always a large “if” for a pitching staff — the Mets should be reasonably well-covered from a depth perspective. While Canning is out for the season, Paul Blackburn should be back this month and Megill next month to provide depth, if needed, with other intriguing reinforcements in the upper levels of the minor leagues. But the Mets plan not just to get to October but to make noise once there, and it’s reasonable to wonder if they possess enough quality at the top of their rotation to do so.

                        Mack – For me, the next rotation pitcher would be Brandon Sproat

Top 40 players on market as July 31 approaches

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5591079/2025/07/09/mlb-trade-deadline-big-board-players-postseason-2/

#21                 David Bednar                    

Age                30

Position       RP

B/T                 L/R

Fits                 DET, NYM, PHI

Deal likelihood

Value:           All-Star reliever returning to form

Analysis:      Optioned to Triple A on the first day of April, Bednar rebounded to be named the NL’s Reliever of the Month in June. His ERA since returning to the majors in mid-April is under two, and the right-hander has made 2024’s rough campaign look like an aberration. There’s a chance he’s an All-Star for the third time in four seasons. He’s striking out more than a third of opposing hitters and is showcasing the best walk rate of his career.

Owed in 2025             $1.9 million

Controlled through 2026

 

#22                 Taylor Ward

Age                31

Position       OF

B/T                 R/R

Fits                 MIL, PHI, SD

Deal likelihood

Value:           Right-handed power hitter

Analysis:      Seemingly an annual candidate to be moved at the deadline, Ward is a good right-handed power bat whose late-blooming career path has him under team control through 2026 despite already being 31.

 

Ward has 25-homer power, generally crushing left-handers and holding his own against right-handers while posting an above-average OPS+ for the fifth straight season. But will the Angels finally decide to move him?

Owed in 2025             $2.5 million

Controlled through 2026

 

#23                 Nick Martinez

Age                34

Position       SP

B/T                 L/R

Fits                 CHC, HOU, NYM

Deal likelihood

Value:           Versatile veteran arm

Analysis:      Martinez won't wow you with stuff – his vulcan changeup is the only pitch that's above average in that regard – but he throws six pitches with good command of each. Despite his poor strikeout rate, he's been able to limit the walk rate and keep hitters guessing enough that they don't do lots of damage when they connect.

While this year hasn’t gone as well as the end of last season did for Martinez, he returned from a brief stint in the bullpen by taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning in his last start of June. He owns a lot of experience as a starter and as a reliever in the same season, and his versatility makes him a great pickup for a team that just needs an arm to help it get to October.

Owed in 2025             $6.7 million

Controlled through 2025

 

24                   Zack Littell

Age                29

Position       SP

B/T                 R/R

Fits                 ARI, ATL, SF

Deal likelihood

Value:           Low-walk, low-strikeout starting pitcher

Analysis:      In a 12-year professional career, Littell has been traded twice, sold once, and claimed off waivers. He’s also been a free agent two times. But if he changes teams again at the deadline, it will finally be a transaction you actually notice. That’s because Littell has emerged from obscurity to become yet another productive Rays starter. He’s given up a lot of home runs this year, and doesn’t strike out many batters, but doesn’t walk many either, and he’s consistently minimized damage through two-plus seasons in the Rays rotation.

The Rays are very much in the playoff hunt, but they also have some Triple-A rotation depth in Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour, and ace Shane McClanahan could return from the IL sometime after the deadline. The team’s roster-churning style could lead them to deal Littell before he becomes a free agent at season’s end.

Owed in 2025             $1.8 million

Controlled through                 2025