MACK - MY Wednesday Observations - Mack's #2 Mets Prospect - Edwin Diaz, Junior Fernandez, Alex Carrillo, Mason Miller, Sandy Koufax, Jonah Tong, Power Rankings, Dylan Ross, Osiris Calvo, Joe Bauman, Edwin Diaz, Injury Update, Juan Soto

 

We continue with my countdown of Mets prospects with…

#2      RHSP      Nolan McLean     

                        

Nolan McLean is a 23-year-old right-handed pitcher in the New York Mets organization, currently ranked as their No. 4 prospect by MLB Pipeline. A former two-way player, McLean was drafted by the Mets in the third round (91st overall) of the 2023 MLB Draft out of Oklahoma State University, where he also played as a hitter. He initially pursued both baseball and football (as a quarterback) at Oklahoma State but focused solely on baseball after his freshman year. The Mets signed him for a $747,600 bonus, and after struggling as a hitter in the minors (striking out 74 times in 143 plate appearances in 2024), he transitioned to full-time pitching.

Background and Development

Born: July 24, 2001, in Willow Spring, NC.

Physical: 6’2”, 214 lbs, bats/throws right.

Draft History: Previously selected by the Baltimore Orioles in the third round of the 2022 MLB Draft but did not sign due to concerns over post-draft physicals. The Mets drafted him as a two-way player but shifted his focus to pitching.

College Stats: At Oklahoma State, McLean posted a 3.30 ERA over 30 innings in 2023, with 34 strikeouts and 17 walks. As a hitter, he batted .250/.379/.532 with nine home runs but had a high 37.3% strikeout rate.

2024 Performance: High-A Brooklyn: 2-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 36 strikeouts over 28 innings in seven starts.

Double-A Binghamton: 2-8, 4.19 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 80 strikeouts, 32 walks over 81.2 innings in 18 starts.

2025 Triple-A Syracuse through 

Prospect Outlook: McLean’s ETA for the majors is 2025, with potential for a debut this season if the Mets’ rotation needs bolster due to injuries. His development as a starter is a priority, with the Mets aiming to give him a “runway” of multiple starts to adjust to MLB competition. 

Pitching Repertoire

McLean’s transition to a full-time pitcher has highlighted his raw arm talent, with a repertoire that shows significant promise but requires refinement, particularly in control. His arsenal includes:

Fastball (Two-Seamer):Velocity: Averages 94-96 mph, topping out at 98 mph.

Characteristics: Features both ride and run, making it effective up in the zone. His low release point can result in a flatter approach angle, which may need adjustment to maximize effectiveness.

Usage: Primary pitch, held velocity well in his first full season as a starter. 

Sweeper:

Velocity: 84-87 mph.

Characteristics: Elite spin rates exceeding 3,000 rpm with up to 20 inches of horizontal movement. Described as a “monster” pitch, it’s highly effective against right-handed batters (backfooting lefties or running away from righties) and generates significant whiffs.

Performance: Profiles as his best pitch, with evaluators noting its plus-to-elite potential. It’s a key reason for his high strikeout rates.

 Slider:

Velocity: Up to 90 mph.

Characteristics: High-spin (above 2,900 rpm) with two-plane break, offering above-average potential. Complements the sweeper as a harder breaking ball.

Usage: Part of his deep pitch mix, adding versatility against both right- and left-handed hitters. 

Curveball:

Velocity: Upper 70s.

Characteristics: High-spin with quality shape, though used less frequently than the sweeper and slider. It has above-average potential but is less refined.

Usage: A secondary breaking pitch, adding depth to his arsenal. 

Changeup:

Velocity: Not specified, but noted as a developing pitch.

Characteristics: McLean did not throw a changeup as a college reliever, but the Mets have been encouraged by its progress in side sessions. It reportedly acts somewhat like a screwball, which could make it a valuable weapon against left-handed batters.

Usage: Still under development, aimed at improving his platoon-neutrality (left-handed batters have a .726 OPS against him, compared to .453 for right-handers). 

Strengths and Areas for Improvement

Strengths:

Exceptional arm talent with a fastball that can touch the upper 90s and high-spin breaking balls.

Athleticism and a strong frame, which aid his transition to a starter’s workload.

Elite sweeper and developing slider provide a strong foundation for strikeout potential (e.g., 27 swings-and-misses in a single Double-A start).

The Mets’ pitching development system, which has successfully turned college relievers like Tylor Megill and Christian Scott into starters, bodes well for his growth. 

Areas for Improvement:

Control remains a significant concern, with a career 12.1% walk rate in college and 23 walks in 54.2 Triple-A innings in 2025. His July 3, 2025, outing (1 walk in 5 innings) was a positive sign.

Needs to improve against left-handed batters, where his east-to-west pitch movement is less effective.

Developing his changeup is critical to becoming a more complete pitcher and avoiding platoon splits.

As a relatively new starter, maintaining velocity and command over longer outings is a work in progress.

Potential Role and Future

McLean’s raw stuff and athleticism make him a high-upside prospect, with evaluators praising his ability to spin the ball (notably his sweeper and slider). The Mets view him as a potential mid-rotation starter, with a 2025 MLB debut possible if he continues to progress. His recent Triple-A performance and ability to generate whiffs suggest he’s close to major-league ready, though the Mets are cautious about ensuring he has a clear opportunity for multiple starts to ease his transition. Mets president David Stearns has emphasized the importance of giving top prospects like McLean a “runway” to adjust to the majors, indicating a deliberate approach to his promotion.

Pitch Profiler                             @pitchprofiler

Edwin Diaz's four-seam was straight up DEMONIC

 

Mets sign RHRP Junior Fernandez to a minor league deal

Name: Junior Fernández

Position: Right-Handed Pitcher (RHP)

Team: Signed to a minor league contract by the New York Mets on July 8, 2025, assigned to Triple-A Syracuse.

Age: 28 (born March 2, 1997)

MLB Experience: 51 games across multiple seasons (2019–2022) with the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates, with a career 5.17 ERA.

2025 Season: Prior to joining the Mets, Fernández pitched for Triple-A Omaha (Kansas City Royals organization), where he had a 4.93 ERA over 38.1 innings in 31 games, with a 2-5 record, 1.54 WHIP, and an impressive 12.44 strikeouts per nine innings (53 strikeouts, 26 walks).

Background: Signed as an international free agent by the St. Louis Cardinals out of the Dominican Republic in 2016. Made his MLB debut in 2019.

Pitching Style:           Fernández’s 2025 Triple-A stats (12.44 K/9, 6.1 BB/9) suggest a power pitcher who prioritizes strikeouts but struggles with control (26 walks in 38.1 innings).

His high WHIP (1.54) indicates he allows baserunners, likely due to walks and occasional hard contact, but his strikeout ability makes him a potential high-leverage reliever if command improves.

Career Notes

Strengths: Fernández’s standout feature is his strikeout ability, with 53 strikeouts in 38.1 innings in 2025 at Triple-A, showcasing swing-and-miss stuff. His experience in MLB (51 games) adds value as a depth piece for the Mets’ bullpen.

Challenges: Control issues (6.1 BB/9 in 2025) and a 4.93 ERA in Triple-A suggest he needs to refine his command to succeed in the majors again. His MLB ERA of 5.17 reflects similar challenges during his earlier stints.

He has no options left.

The Mets have promoted RHRP Alex Carrillo from AAA-Syracuse

Alex Carrillo is a 28-year-old right-handed relief pitcher for the New York Mets, called up to the majors on July 8, 2025. His journey to the big leagues is remarkable, marked by perseverance through independent and international leagues.

Born on June 6, 1997, in Paramount, California, Carrillo stands at 6’2” and weighs 245 pounds. He throws with a near-sidearm motion, delivering a fastball that reaches up to 100 mph with nasty tail, complemented by an 86 mph sweeping breaking ball.

Carrillo’s professional career began after going undrafted out of Faulkner University (NAIA) in 2019. He briefly pitched for the Texas Rangers’ Rookie-level team in the Arizona Complex League, logging 4 1/3 innings before being released in 2020 during the pandemic-related minor league cuts. For the next few years, he bounced around, pitching for the Washington Wild Things in the independent Frontier League, los Tigres de Quintana Roo in the Mexican League, and los Tigres de Aragua in the Venezuelan Winter League.

His velocity was modest earlier in his career, topping out in the 80s, but he gradually developed into a flamethrower.

The Mets signed him out of the Venezuelan Winter League in November 2024, giving him a minor league contract. In 2025, Carrillo started at Double-A Binghamton, where he posted a 4.19 ERA over 19 1/3 innings with 30 strikeouts and a 36.6% strikeout rate. After a rocky start, he finished strong, allowing just three runs over his final 14 1/3 innings.

Promoted to Triple-A Syracuse, he dominated, throwing 5 2/3 hitless and scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts, averaging 98.5 mph on his fastball.His Triple-A debut on June 24, 2025, was electric: entering with bases loaded and no outs, he struck out two batters and induced a popout, then added another strikeout in a scoreless second inning. This performance, combined with his 100 mph velocity, put him on the Mets’ radar.

Carrillo has a two-pitch repertoire:

Fastball:

A high-velocity offering that reaches up to 100 mph, thrown from a near-sidearm slot. It features significant tailing action, making it difficult for hitters to square up. In his 2025 Triple-A stint, it averaged 98.5 mph.

Sweeping Breaking Ball:

An 86 mph pitch, likely a slider or sweeper, with sharp lateral movement. It complements his fastball by generating swings and misses, contributing to his high strikeout rates (36.6% at Double-A, 10 strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings at Triple-A in 2025).

Trade Targets

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6467560/2025/07/02/mlb-trade-deadline-predictions-alcantara-naylor/   

Mason Miller, RHRP, Athletics

The A’s received plenty of trade offers for Miller over the past couple of years, but they’ve always shied away. However, this year could be different if they plan to keep him in the closer role. One NL GM told me, “I think the A’s would be foolish to hold on to him if they’re not going to convert him into a starter, especially with the trade return they could get for him now.”

Miller has converted 17 saves of 20 save opportunities with a 4.55 ERA and 52 strikeouts over 31 2/3 innings. He’s averaged 100.9 mph on his fastball for a second consecutive year, and batters are hitting just .122 against his wipeout slider. Multiple teams would love to trade for Miller and transition him to starting, as they believe he could develop into an ace. Miller, 26, is under team control through 2029, so the return in a trade for him would have to be massive.

Jim Koenigsberger                                  @Jimfrombaseball

"A foul ball off Koufax was a moral victory."

Don Sutton

From 1963 to 1966, Sandy Koufax went 97-27 with a 1.86 ERA. In 1,192 innings pitched, he struck out 1,228 batters. He threw 89 complete games and 31 shutouts.

Sandy Koufax also threw 4 no hitters, the last one being a perfect game.

The youngest player ever inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Three time Cy Young Award winner....unanimously each time.

Three time Triple Crown winner

The Top Performers From Last Week in Minor League Baseball (7/1-7/6)

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/top-performers-minor-league-baseball-news/

Jonah Tong, RHP, New York Mets

Last Week: 1 GS, 5.2 IP, 10 Ks, 2 BB, 3.18 ERA

Two weeks ago, Jonah Tong made his first appearance on one of these updates, as he had pitched one of his best games of the season. In that update, I mentioned how Tong appears to be this year’s breakout Minor League pitcher, and he continues to make this more and more true every start he has.

In his most recent start, Tong pitched 5.2 innings to a 3.18 ERA, while striking out 10 batters once again. This was his fifth start of the season with double-digit strikeouts, marking another successful start in his great season.

With every start he makes, it appears like our number 69 prospect is coming closer and closer to earning his Triple-A promotion, as he continues to be one of the best pitching prospects in baseball this season.

 

Power Rankings

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6478100/2025/07/08/mlb-power-rankings-blue-jays-dodgers/

6. New York Mets (6.7)

Record: 52-39

Last Power Ranking: 7

Preseason playoff odds: 62.4 percent

Current playoff odds: 86.6 percent

The Mets’ odds dipped, though never cratered, during their recent 3-14 stretch. They’ve snapped out of it with four wins in the last five, and it appears they’ve survived the shakiest stretch for their pitching staff. Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea could both be back this weekend, limiting how often New York requires an opener or spot starts — both employed in the series win over the Yankees over the weekend. The lineup has helped pick up the slack, with Juan Soto turning himself into a genuine All-Star snub since the start of June and Brandon Nimmo, who hit two grand slams last week, now on pace for more than 30 homers.

 

Dylan Ross

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6479347/2025/07/08/mets-prospect-dylan-ross-100-mph-elbow-operations/

At 6 feet, 5 inches and 250 pounds, Dylan Ross is “an absolute horse,” New York Mets senior vice president for player development Andy Green says.

Just a few months into his first professional season, Ross has raced from High A to Triple A, with a big-league promotion looking like a distinct possibility at some point by the homestretch.

Ross, a 24-year-old right-handed pitcher, possesses one of the hardest fastballs in the Mets’ farm system. He has hit 102 mph. There have been a few 101 mph readings, too.

When overwhelming velocity isn’t enough, Ross unleashes a low-90s splitter that multiple evaluators referred to as “real.” He also throws a slider and a curveball.

In 28 1/3 innings across three levels, Ross has a 2.54 ERA with 52 strikeouts and 16 walks (in 6 1/3 innings at Triple A, he has a 1.42 ERA with 11 strikeouts and five walks).

 

Mets Prospect Group                             @bkfan09

Osiris Calvo 4 IP 4H 3ER 0BB/4K

23.2 IP 1.90 ERA  30K/4BB

Time to move on stateside

Osiris Calvo is a 20-year-old left-handed pitcher from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, currently playing for the DSL Mets Orange, a Rookie Affiliate of the New York Mets in the Dominican Summer League (DSL). Born on May 6, 2004, he stands at 6'4" and weighs 195 pounds. Calvo signed a one-year contract with the Mets as part of their 2023 international prospect class, an event celebrated at the Mets' Academy in Boca Chica, where 18 athletes, including Calvo, were signed with bonuses exceeding a million dollars collectively.

In 2025, Calvo has shown promise in the DSL, earning recognition as the DSL Pitcher of the Week for a standout performance where he struck out eight batters over five hitless innings. However, his outings have been inconsistent, with a recent game noted as a rare rough performance, allowing four hits and three runs over two innings with three strikeouts and no walks. His season stats reflect a strong 29 strikeouts against only four walks, indicating good control despite occasional struggles.

Calvo is considered a potential candidate for the DSL All-Star Game on July 20, 2025, if he remains in the DSL. His development is being closely followed by Mets prospect watchers, with his size, left-handed pitching, and recent performances marking him as a notable talent in the Mets' minor league system.

 

 

Jim Koenigsberger                                  @Jimfrombaseball

"I can make more money selling 27-inch shoelaces on the streets of Oklahoma City."

"Big Joe" Bauman when the Braves offered him too small a salary in 1949. Because of the reserve clause, he couldn't play elsewhere in pro ball until the Braves officially let him go.

"Some of Bauman's long balls travelled so far they were never found. Bauman's strategy at the plate was no secret, according to the San  Angelo Colts' Bob Gregg, who pitched to him several times: 'Hit the ball  out of the park.'"

In 1954 Bauman hit 72 home runs in 138 games, a major/minor league record, and also batted .400.

Career 337 HR in 1,019 games, 1,166 hits, 1,053 RBI.

Bauman's  most noteworthy feats and home runs aren't commonly known, but each  year the player who lead all levels in home runs in the minors receives the "Joe Bauman Award", with the honor  going to the likes of the Mets' Pete Alonso (2018), the Cubs' Kris Bryant (2014) and the Rangers' Joey Gallo (2013) in recent years.

 

Edwin Diaz’s delivery

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6477057/2025/07/07/this-week-in-mets-offense-showing-potential/

Edwin Díaz, who is famously subpar at holding runners. Díaz’s high leg kick makes him slow to the plate, and opposing baserunners were 22-for-23 off Díaz last season. But whereas some closers wouldn’t waste time trying to solve that problem, Díaz has worked hard on being quicker home. Postgame Thursday, he relayed with pride that the Mets had clocked him at 1.4 seconds home on the pitch where they caught Yelich — or about 0.3 seconds faster than usual.

“That’s a huge accomplishment for me,” Díaz said, “because I’ve always been slow to the plate.”

Opposing basestealers are just 7-for-11 off the closer this season.

That gave Luis Torrens the sliver of a chance he needed on the throw. Torrens has been a real weapon behind the dish, catching 10 of 25 runners this season because he’s quick, he’s accurate and he throws the ball hard. His average pop time is tied for third in the sport (Francisco Alvarez is in second), and his 82 mph average throw is 11th in baseball. According to Baseball Savant, his arm has been as valuable as any catcher’s in baseball.

“To put it right there,” Mendoza said, “it doesn’t get any better.”

Now, take note of where Torrens fired the ball. Just a few years ago, before rules changes incentivized stolen bases and prevented infielders from blocking the bag, catchers would generally try to put the ball right at the right corner of the base, where an infielder straddling the bag would receive it and put the tag down. Now, with the infielder positioned in front of the bag (so as not to obstruct the runner), the catcher tries to put the ball just slightly up the line, as Torrens did Thursday.

That’s because it gives the infielder, in this case Lindor, more of an opportunity to apply the tag quickly. And on this play, Lindor’s basically tagging Yelich as he’s receiving the ball in his glove.

 

Injury Update

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6477057/2025/07/07/this-week-in-mets-offense-showing-potential/

In the pitching possibles, Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea are each listed aspirationally. Senga made his first rehab start on Saturday, tossing 68 pitches over 4 2/3 innings for Double-A Binghamton. He felt physically fine afterward, and provided nothing changes in the coming days, he should return to the majors on Friday.

Manaea has one more rehab start to make on Tuesday for Triple-A Syracuse. If that goes according to plan, he’ll be ready to go for the first-half finale on Sunday.

The news is worse for Dedniel Núñez. The Mets fear Núñez will need his second Tommy John surgery after feeling soreness in his right elbow last week. Núñez is going to meet with more doctors early this week to determine the best course of action.

Paul Blackburn and José Buttó were other additions to the IL this week. The Mets expect both to be short-term absences, with returns shortly after the All-Star break.

Jesse Winker played four of the last five days in the minors. He could return to the bigs as soon as yesterday.

Tylor Megill started playing catch on Saturday.

Jose Siri was getting an MRI over the weekend to see whether his fractured tibia has healed enough to start his running progression again.

Max Kranick is down in Port St. Lucie and should be able to start a throwing program soon.

 

Snub: Juan Soto

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6477096/2025/07/06/mlb-2025-all-star-game-snubs/

Soto, after a slow start to the season, is now eighth in the Majors in wRC+ and third in on-base percentage. He’s been looking more and more like his All-Star self. Pages is 15th in the Majors in fWAR and Rafaela is 27th. Rafaela is a curious case because he’s only slightly above-average as a hitter (101 wRC+), but he’s also a great baserunner, and defensively he’s one of three players to be worth 14 outs above average this season. It’s hard for a player to make an All-Star team strictly on the strength of his defense, but Rafaela made a case.