Paul Articulates - Statistically speaking

Today’s MLB world is dominated by statistics.  Teams have made large investments in analytical tools and staffs to run them; front office staff weigh numbers heavily in decisions on player acquisition; fans and media constantly cite statistics when arguing player value; and managers use stats to guide daily tactical decision making.  The game is generally better because of it.

However, it is just as important to acknowledge that statistics are only part of the story.  Numbers can be misunderstood, misinterpreted, or worse – misused to drive a misleading conclusion.  We see it every day in the news, in politics, and in sports talk shows – numbers are factual but when used in the wrong context or viewed too narrowly they can provide an alternate (and inaccurate) view of reality. Many people will cherry-pick facts that support their position in an argument and leave the other conflicting data out of the discussion.  Those that don’t look at the whole picture can easily be misled.

Why am I pointing this out?  Because in baseball there is more information than the average fan can process and therefore they rely on certain trusted voices for their opinions, which quickly become the fan’s opinion as well.  

Sometimes I admire how Steve Cohen, David Stearns, and the rest of the leadership steer through the bedlam of conflicting published opinion on what is working and what needs to be fixed.  Of course they have more trusted sources of information and people that they pay very well to boil down the data to actionable information.  

So far they have shown the discipline not to over-react to short term negative trends.  Take for example the almost inexplicable 3-13 skid the team just went through.  Most of the fans wanted to fire the entire team.  Stearns just circulated a few arms between majors and minors primarily for health reasons and now the team has taken series from two strong contenders – the Brewers and the Yankees.

Another statistical tragedy was the selection of all-stars which left Juan Soto off the team.  Yes, Juan was having a statistical year that was very much at the low end of his profile.  But he has been hitting the ball very hard all year and now that his luck has turned he is not hitting them right at the defense anymore.  He had a June that was very worthy of an all-star berth but that wasn’t enough to convince the general public or Dave Roberts that Soto should be selected.  I hope Soto goes on a tear the next time the Mets face the Dodgers.

Stats have been around since the inception of baseball.  Their importance grew with the inception of the baseball card and then exponentially with the era of Moneyball.  They will never go away and should never go away.  Today’s message is simple – don’t believe everything you read with a statistical justification.  Check it out for yourself and let the written word just be a guide to your decision making.  This is all the more important as the trade deadline looms.