One of the names who keeps coming up again and again for the Mets to acquire is the slick fielding and speedy Luis Robert, Jr. from the Chicago White Sox who are playing so poorly right now that they may dislodge the 1962 Mets as the worst single season record in baseball history. Everyone knows the story of his out of this world 2023 season when he was an All Star, slugging 38 HRs, driving in 80 and stealing 20 bases. Not only did it earn him AL recognition for the July classic but it also got him a silver slugger.
Here’s the problem. Prior to that season he was an off and on type of hitter maxing out at thirteen long balls in 2021 and then following up his monster season with just 14. The batting average has one year soared as high as .338, but this past season he was at just .224 and thie year even worse at .190.
Based upon his stellar 2023 the White Sox gave their Cuban import a solid contract for the next few years which netted him salaries in 2024 of $12.5 million and in 2025 it rose to $15 million. Acquiring him would cost the remaining balance of that deal and then the new team would either pay him $20 million per season in 2026 and 2027 or else buy him out for $2 million either season.
While $15 million isn’t chump change, consider that the Mets crossed into the 8 figure payroll obligation for former Met Harrison Bader who was known far more for his glove than his bat. He did hit .254 in New York which for him was a watershed moment, but tallied just 12 HRs and stole 17 bases.
For a point of reference, the younger Robert, Jr. already has 22 steals and 9 HRs so it would seem that he’s easily going to surpass both Bader numbers. The issue remains the dropoff in long ball power and the anemic batting average.
Now if you’re a small market team you might very well roll the dice that somehow a change in hitting coach and a run for the pennant might propel him into past glories. For that you would cough up a good but not great prospect or two mid tier prospects if you’re going to absorb the remaining full salary.
The Mets are not a small market team and owner Steve Cohen has certainly shown an inclination to spend when called upon to do so. The question is whether this dice roll is more likely to come up craps or return to rolling naturals. It is a somewhat expensive gamble at the balance of the 2025 salary and perhaps the $2 million buyout for 2026 if he doesn’t rebound, but it’s not over-the-top at all if he can rev up the offense a bit after changing teams. Right now other center fielders who might be on the market have more appeal but likely would also cost more to acquire.
So is Robert, Jr. a worthy gamble or not? What would be a fair offer for the White Sox to duck out from under his salary?
4 comments:
I’d almost try Drew Gilbert over Robert. He at least has finally been hot in July. .325/.386/.750 in 11 July games. It would likely have to be using him against just righties…poor against lefties this year and last year, as in about .165 in roughly 140 PAs. He could do a lefty/righty platoon with Taylor.
Many of these gambles have not paid off over the years for the Mets. I trust David Stearns' judgement more than past GMs, but still think that we have upcoming prospects that could fill this role - Jett Williams is at the top of the list, with Nick Morabito close behind.
Two of these names that keep popping up is Robert and Mullins. You would have to give up anything of value for either of those two. Both are absolutely awful. Mullins is actually the lowest rated CF in baseball.
I, like Tom would rather give Gilbert a shot as part of a platoon.
There's no help coming for CF, so concentrate on relief pitchers and a bat to lengthen the lineup.
Sorry, didn't proofread. I meant to say you would have to be insane to give anything of value for either player.
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