THE BRETT BATY PARADOX

Brett Baty's biggest problem is that the Mets fanbase has the most extensive collection of professional hitters, analytics gurus, and former scouting directors of any MLB fanbase. 

Just ask them, that's exactly what they'll tell you...

#MetsNation seems to be split into 2 groups, those who recognize Baty's immense potential, and the second group who believe Baty has zero potential based on that they've seen thus far at the MLB level. Below is a simple breakdown of historical data that compares Baty's production during his time in the AA Eastern League stacked up against arguably some of best hitters in the MLB. Obviously, this is just one component of how to gauge a prospect's potential, but with the rise of analytics it's often overlooked and trivialized. 

 

His statistics at AA provide a glimpse into what made Baty a Top 20 overall prospect in 2023. AA Eastern League is one of the most important test a prospect in the minors will receive, because it is stacked with a high level of competition, pitcher's parks, and depth of quality pitching because the franchises who are associated with Eastern League have historically allocated heavy financial resources into developing pitching.

 

As a prospect, there are 2 scouting grades that really standout when assessing their potential as a hitter, the "hit tool" grade and the "power tool" grade on the "Scouting 20-80 scale". In 2023 MLB.com ranked Baty as their #21 overall prospect in the Minors, grading him as having a 60 "hit tool" and a 70 grade "power". Baseball Prospectus had him ranked as high as #17, giving him a 60 "hit" tool grade and 70 "power" grade.

 

Below are the players who received the grades of 60 and higher for both as Baty did in 2023 as per MLB.com:

 

2022:

•                              B. Witt Jr - K.C.

•                              A. Rutschman - BAL

•                              J. Rodriguez - SEA

•                              S. TORKELSON - DET 

•                              R. GREENE - DET 

•                              A. VOLPE - NYY 

•                              B. BATY - NYM 

 

2023:

•                              G. HENDERSON - BAL 

•                              C. MONTGOMER - CWS 

•                              B. BATY - NYM 

•                              T. JOHNSON - PIT 

 

2024:

•                              J. HOLLIDAY - BAL 

•                              J. Caminero - TAM

•                              W. LANGFORD - TEX 

•                              D. CREWS - WAS 

•                              W. JENKINS - MIN 

•                              S. BASILLO - BAL 

•                              C. KEITH 

 

2025:

•                              R. ANTHONY - BOS 

•                              W. JENKINS - MIN 

•                              K. CAMPBELL - BOS 

•                              N. KURTZ - OAK 

•                              J. DE PAULA - LAD 

•                              J. MADE - MIL 

 

What is clear from the list above is there simply aren't that many prospects graded by the industry to have the same skillset as Baty has, regardless of what he's done at the MLB level. From a scouting perspective Baty has an elite combination of tools which have been on display at every stop in the minor leagues, but simply hasn't been unlocked at the MLB level. Analytics provide a very simple explanation, which is echoed throughout the Mets fanbase, he hits too many ground balls, which is undeniably true.

 

What is being overlooked is the fact he spent 108 games at the MLB level, after virtually skipping AAA, and held a .212 BA in 353 AB's. Yes, .212 isn't anything to write home about, but the difference between Baty hitting .212 and .283 in the same number of at-bats is 25 hits. That's 1 extra hit ever 4 games that would've raised his batting average 70 points. 

Even if he was able to find a way to muster an extra 10-13 hits in 353 AB's, you're talking about a batting average in the .240-.250 range for a prospect who skipped AAA. That's basically one hot-streak away from going from looking overmatched, to showing that you are hitting above the league average, despite skipping AAA entirely (only played 10 games before being promoted). 

That is what the Mets player development brass see, that's what the Manager sees, and that's what the majority of industry people see.

 

Giving up on a player whose toolset and career numbers in the Minors are on par with some of the better hitters in the league is simply counter-productive for an organization like the Mets who are trying to complement their nucleus of big money veterans with an infusion of young, controllable impact talent. Mark Vientos' 2024 season is a great example of why giving up on talent prematurely or overemphasizing analytics is dangerously capable of setting a franchise back.

 

Baty offers similar potential to what we saw with Vientos in 2024, if the Mets can figure out a way to improve upon his 40-50% ground-ball rate, among other things. Without regular playing time, it is incredibly difficult for any prospect to establish himself as an MLB hitter. Case in point Corbin Carroll, unanimous 2023 ROY, struggles in 2024, but re-establishes himself as a force of nature in 2025. 

 

The market rate for the production we saw from Vientos in 2024 from a veteran potentially costs as much as $15-20 million a year, teams committed to being financially prudent must give very long runways to former Top 20 prospects the necessary time to establish themselves.

 

That's potentially tens of millions of dollars in annual savings, if the Mets are able to unlock Baty's tremendous potential, as they were able to do with Alvarez - 2023, Vientos - 2024. Savings which can be used to fortify other roster spots or maintain a manageable payroll.

 

The Indians didn't trade Rickie "Wild Thing" Vaughn for a reason, the same logic applies to high-ceiling prospects like Baty, among others.

 

That in a nutshell is the "Brett Baty Paradox".