Deadline Deals Involve Leaps of Faith
The reality of the looming July 31 trade deadline is simply this:
On July 24, as I write this, 19 teams either led their division or were within 5 games of their respective Wild Cards.
Those 19 teams, and perhaps a few others that are slightly beyond 5 games out of the Wild Card, are hugely gambling if they are deadline sellers…and this also applies to would-be buyers. Why?
They have a third or more of the season to make up that “out of the Wild Card” deficit, so why sell? They could get hot, but having traded away talent, and then to get hot and fall just short, and face the ire of their fans? UGLY!
Having the deadline later, say, on August 10 or 15, would seem to me to make a lot more sense. If you are 5 out with 45 games left, you might well feel less hopeful that if you were 5 out with 60 to play.
Any later for a deadline seems to open the process to manipulation by big market teams, but July 31 is a crapshoot for many teams.
Buti don’t make the rules. THEY do.
Thoughts?
(But first see my July thoughts further below).
First Round Draft - Another “What If”
Sooo many time in the past I have questioned Mets draft picks.
Yeah, yeah, I know it’s a crap shoot.
The Yankees are keen on opting for power.
They are a keen JUDGE in that regard, one might say.
So, with the 25th overall pick of 2022, and the Mets having not picked Spencer Jones, the power-craving Yankees smiled broadly and knowingly and selected one Spencer Jones.
Jones recently got promoted to AAA, where in his first 19 games, he hit an absolutely astonishing 13 HRs. Name the last Mets prospect to do that.
The answer is, no one ever.
The Mets, meanwhile, picked earlier at # 11 and # 14.
# 11 was Kevin Parada, who appeared to be a complete bust thru mid-May, but has since heated up, increasing management’s hopes of enough of a turn-around that he will be a future major leaguer.
# 14 was Jett Williams, who can get on base and steal bags, belying his 5’6” height disadvantage, hoping to defy the odds of a guy of that height becoming a strong major league starting position player.
To me, if i was Mets’ draft honcho, and I could do the draft over today…
I am picking Spencer Jones with one of those 2 picks in a heartbeat.
Probably I’m picking Jones with the Jett Williams pick, as I’d really have, at the time, wanted a successful future Alvarez/Parada catching duo, envisioning 162 strong offensive games at catcher, with some spill-over to DH.
I’d have shied away from Jett for height reasons…unless he fell to the 2nd round.
What about you?
(Of course, on the other hand, I talk about a guy below who is turning into “first round draft genius pick”.)
Moving on…
Mets have gone from ROT TO HOT! And…
Saw this headline:
“LUIS DE LOS SANTOS WALKS IT OFF FOR THE FIRST SIX GAME SWEEP IN SYRACUSE METS HISTORY!!!!!”
A SIX GAME AAA SERIES SWEEP? NICE!
AND…
Somehow, Syracuse did that WITHOUT Carson Benge, who is still in AA.
BENGE? The 2024 1st rounder went 4-6 & a walk, with TWO HRs, on Sunday.
21 AA games, .350/.458/.588, and just 13 Ks in 96 AA plate appearances.
Between A and AA, Benge has scored a wonderful 67 runs in 81 games, while stealing 18 of 21. I am a big fan of scoring runs.
Rifle for an arm, too.
Wow. He’s ready to be promoted - and I don’t mean to AAA.
To Queens.
AND FINALLY…
RONNY MO going 4-4 on Sunday? Wow. He has arrived.
In fact, here are Mets player averages for July, through Sunday:
S. Marte: .500
Alvarez: .353
Mauricio: .295
Nimmo: .284
B. Baty: .259
Vientos: .246 (but no HR, 6 RBI)
McNeil: .245
J. Soto: .227
Acuna: .214
Lindor: .213
Alonso: .160
Taylor: .111 (after a very bad June, by the way).
I am guessing, going into July, no one would have projected THAT, huh?
So, that is why execs wait until near the trade deadline to make moves.
Relievers, of course, are different and mostly more predictable in terms of performance, and so they are easier to shop for with some level of certainty.
18 comments:
Call me cynical, but in any business would you allow 100 of 162 games take place without making any significant improvements to reinforce and secure your position against your competitors? I think that approach is unique to baseball and that's not a good thing at all.
It is the Soto luxury tax effect. His salary alone vaults them towards the lux super tax. But it is their job to circumvent that as best as possible.
Boy, Tatis made 2 sensational catches last night, one to flat out rob Vientos of a HR, the other to make a sensational sliding catch on Mauricio. Not to be critical of the .249 hitting Soto, but he’d definitely not have made either of those snags. Both had an extremely high level of difficulty. I did not see Brazoban not covering first, which apparently cost them 3(?) runs. Come on!
The core 4 (Nimmo, Lindor, Soto, and Peter) last night were a horrible 3 for 18 with 11 Ks, while the erstwhile 4 (Vientos, Mo, Alvy, and Baty) were 3 for 13 (and robbed twice), 2 walks, two HRs, and all 6 RBIs.
A hostile takeover?
No more Pete. I’m going back to Peter Alonso. I want my 53 HR Peter back.
Tom
You and I discussed Spencer Jones at draft time that year
I was begging the Mets would pick him with the second first round pick
No one would care if Petr walked
The Mets have solved third base
Just who they use going forward is still in play... though... I think Vientos"s two "almost" homers last night is, I'm sure, the phones are ringing today
Mack, at this point it almost doesn't matter, they are all doing well.
They really are and, frankly, they are carrying this team right now
I wish Vientos could be happy as a DH going forward
Is anyone else getting sick of Soto's childish act every time an umpire calls a strike on him. I watched the game last night and the previous few in San Fran, and he questioned every single strike call. And the kicker was that almost every pitch was a strike, according to that box on the screen. Yes, there was one or two bad calls, but the ump sucked for everyone else.
All this talk of generational talent....blah, blah, blah.
GROW UP CHUBBY
And first baseman next year
Question
Would this be bothering you if he was hitting .300 with 10 more home runs?
Another question for all
ESPN says the top Met target right now is Luis Robert Jr.
They also said it will take two Baby Mets
Why do the Mets want this bat drone?
Baffled…unless they can “fix Robert in 10 minutes”
Mack,
The decisions over the next two days have been complicated after seeing the "young Mets" carry the team over the past few games. Will we see the GM make a change and trade a starter and give a prospect that job? Remember he once traded his closer for prospects. Could it happen again?
Mack, of course it wouldn't bother me as much if he was hitting .300. Honestly, I just don't like him or his childish antics. Also, the HR's mean nothing to me. If he doesn't hit over .300 he's not a generational talent to me. I have never liked me first guys.
For the life of me I can't understand this Louis Robert interest...unless you are giving him away. Same goes for Mullins.
They better not trade two Baby Mets for this turd
I would have to go back and see what he did when he played for other teams
Still he's in a good mood
We've seen his sullen side when that start
Someone needs to remind him he is playing his hand into the hands of the umpires
22 draft is a brutal case of “what if” , Noah Schultz, Misiorowski, Anthony were all attainable
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