Michael Scannell - Rest Assured, the Lineup Will Be Addressed

Over the winter, many fans were upset that more was not done to improve the Mets' offense.  Sure, they added one of the best catching prospects in the game, however the OF is still weak for the long-term.  Duda is not a solution in LF, Cowgill works hard but is not a starting player, and Byrd is on his last legs.  One thing that has been required with this front office is patience.  Unfortunately many fans who were willing to wait until 2014 are now cynically saying maybe 2015 or 2016 we'll compete.  I genuinely doubt that that's the plan.

Alderson and Co. KNOW that they have to put a competitive product on the field and that their honeymoon period is coming to a close.  The Mets were supposed to be "Moneyball with money"...they seem to have gotten the first part down and built a young and affordable foundation and now the additional pieces need to be added.

Yesterday, I (like many other Mets fans) woke up to a report that the Mets are keeping tabs on how the Stanton and CarGo situations are developing in Miami and Colorado.  My first response was 'of course they are', however it was good to read it in print.  The piece went on to reference other marquee outfielders that the Mets had interest in.  We know about Bourn and Upton, but the article also talked about how Sandy had interest in grabbing Andre Ethier from LA or Alex Gordon from KC.  All of this tells me what most fans implicitly get - the Mets are going to add the right bat or bats, it just will take some time for the situation to evolve.

With regard to Stanton, I've made it very clear that I believe that he should be the #1 priority to add to this lineup.  He's young (younger than d'Arnaud), hits with amazing power, plays a decent OF, and is likely to be traded.  His addition will transform the lineup, both lengthening it and making the surrounding hitters that much better.  David Wright has never had the type of protection that hitting in front of Stanton would provide.  The question is what it will take to get him.  The rumors surround Wheeler and d'Arnaud.  First, I don't want to trade both of them for Stanton.  Sure, the Mets would upgrade the offense, but they'd be right back to searching for a catcher and I'm betting on all of the scouts who have seen Wheeler and say he's got ACE written all over him.  The next ideas floated have surrounded picking one of the two and then building a larger offer around him.  I'm against this as well.  I'm of the belief that we can eat our cake and have it too here.  I want to hang onto d'Arnaud because catcher is such a valuable position and I want Wheeler here because of his upside and because he's been part of 'the future' for so long.

My thinking is that in a couple of months time the Mets will be able to sell Rafael Montero as just as good as Wheeler.  The early scouting reports have him with a high ceiling and he's been flat out dominating in the early going at AA.  If by June he's up to Las Vegas and still blowing hitters away, the rest of MLB will catch up to what the rest of us already know about him.  Remember, it wasn't all that long ago that Wheeler was 'maybe a reliever' or a 'middle of the rotation starter'.  Going into 2011, the year he was traded for Beltran, Wheeler was rated the #55 prospect in baseball.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if Montero moved up the lists quickly.  I don't suspect that Stanton will be dealt until July the earliest....maybe even in the offseason.  Montero's stock could be high enough by then to supplant Wheeler in trade talks.

Only a level behind Montero, the same could be said very soon about Luis Mateo.  Since the Marlins are also thin at catcher, I'd see about moving Kevin Plawecki into a deal.  He's only at A-ball right now, but he's mashing.  If he can get a promotion and continue his hitting, his stock will also rise.  Remember, when d'Arnaud was originally traded for Halladay he was only in Single-A and a long way from a sure thing.

Of course, Montero-Plawecki doesn't have the sex appeal of Wheeler-d'Arnaud right at this moment, but that's where the other chips come in.  Sell the Marlins on a 4-, 5-, or 6-for-1 deal and overpay.  They have other holes in their organization, including 3B and 2B.  The Mets could look to include Flores and Valdespin or use some of their expendables to go around MLB collecting pieces that Miami wants.  With the way Buck and Murphy are performing, they each could net a decent prospect or two.  Also, contending teams are always in the market for competent relief pitching and the Mets could offer Lyon and Francisco around to see who's interested.  Remember, in 2010 Matt Capps was pitching to a 2.74 ERA when the Nationals dealt him for Wilson Ramos, the #58 overall prospect in baseball.  Lastly, starting pitching seems to be at a premium.  If Gee settles down and Marcum can pitch a couple months of healthy baseball that's two more trade chips.  We know from the Beltran and Dickey trades that Alderson wants to maximize his assets...he even tried to hold out for a top prospect for Hairston last year.

If I were in Alderson's shoes I would talk to Marlins GM Larry Beinfest weekly to monitor his interest in dealing Stanton as well as get a feel for what would get a trade moving.  If I were in the position of trading Stanton the way Beinfest is, I'd want a number of quality prospects rather than Wheeler and d'Arnaud.  What if Wheeler gets injured?  What if d'Arnaud doesn't live up to his promise?  It would be wasting one of the best young hitters in baseball.  This could be Beinfest's Herschel Walker deal, to round out the team and construct an entire roster.  Usually trades wind up having to choose between making a choice for quantity or trading for quality.  To ensure the Mets get Stanton, the offer to Miami should cover both.  Prospects can be quality without being in the top ten of all of baseball.

The expendable players I mentioned to trade can almost all be replaced internally for now, so, the big league club could add a bona fide slugger and not do too much damage to the overall squad.  A trade of Montero, Plawecki, Top 3B prospect, Top 2B prospect, throw-in might just be enough to get Stanton to NYC.  Alderson should have no qualms about flipping prospects in multiple deals as it was also reported that he has no special attachment to Wheeler and d'Arnaud just because he acquired them in trade.  If he traded John Buck for a Top 50 prospect in June, I doubt he'd be squeamish about trading that same prospect in July or November.

With regard to the CarGo situation, I'd pass.  He's a nice player but the Mets should be looking for surefire players if they're going to trade their young talent.  Until proven otherwise, he cannot hit outside of Coors Field.  The same was said about Matt Holliday and he turned out just fine, I just don't want to take the chance.  However, there have been reports that Troy Tulowitzki might be on the block soon.  His extension is going to kick in very shortly and he'll be making $20M per season.  The Rockies might not want to pay that and teams (at least the Cardinals) have already been feeling around about what the Rockies might want in return.  Tulo himself was quoted as saying he thought he would be traded last offseason.  This is the player the Mets should target from Colorado.  He's a star player at a premium position and the best overall SS in baseball right now.  The Mets could afford the salary given some of the younger players are relatively cheap and the pitching staff (Harvey, Niese, 2 internal solutions - hopefully Wheeler and Syndergaard) will be making less than $10M total over the next few years.  I would happily start shopping Ike Davis around in order to make a deal for Tulo.  With 1B being such an important position and so many teams out there lacking a run-producer at the position, Davis should be able to net two prospects.  The Mets could package those from the Davis trade with another young arm (Mateo?  Fulmer?  Any of the other potential RH starters?) and put together a solid offer for Tulowitzki as well.  Duda could shift to 1B, giving the Mets a 3-4-5-6-7 of Wright-Stanton-Duda-Tulowitzki-d'Arnaud to go with their blossoming pitching staff.

I covered this in another post (http://macksmets.blogspot.com/2013/03/part-1-next-mets-of-lh-corner-of.html ), but if the Mets wanted to go in another direction, they could sign Choo and/or Pence next offseason or they could make trades for All-Star OFers not necessarily of Stanton's stature.  We know that the Mets had and likely still have interest in Andre Ethier.  With Yasiel Puig destroying AA pitching right now, it won't be long before he hits the majors.  Once that happens, Ethier will be available.  The Dodgers will want to save his money to extend Kershaw as soon as possible.  Ethier would be a solid and credible but not great addition to the team.  As it would likely be a salary dump, the price shouldn't be nearly as high as for Stanton.  I'd also assume the Mets have interest in Alex Gordon.  The team's announcement over the winter that they would not trade Jon Niese for Gordon smells of negotiating through the press.  I'm assuming the Mets liked Gordon, KC demanded Niese, and the Mets tried to get them to back off to no avail.  Acquiring Gordon all depends on how the season goes for the Royals.  If they make the playoffs, it'll be less likely that Gordon is dealt.  If they miss the playoffs, he could be on the market with $35M left on his contract over the next 3 years.

I know that some fans were extremely disappointed that the Mets let Upton slip through their fingers, however by the looks of things there will be some very attractive options on the market for the Mets to add to their team.

My dream scenario -

KC misses the playoffs
The Rockies decide to move Tulo's contract
Miami wants to move Stanton and maximize his value by acquiring as many players as possible

Trade Buck - Prospect A, replace with d'Arnaud
Trade Murphy - Prospect B, replace with Turner (temporarily)
Trade Gee - Prospect C, replace with Wheeler
Trade Lyon - Prospect D, replace with Familia
Trade Francisco - Prospect E, replace with Mazzoni
Trade Marcum - Prospect F, replace with Mejia(?)

Montero, Plawecki, Prospect A, Prospect B, Prospect F - Giancarlo Stanton
Davis (or prospects acquired for him), Tejada, Mateo  - Troy Tulowitzki
Prospect C, Prospect D, Prospect E, Valdespin - Alex Gordon



1.
2. LF Gordon (10)
3. 3B Wright (20)
4. RF Stanton
5. 1B Duda (0.5)
6. SS Tulowitzki (20)
7. Ca d'Arnaud (0.5)
8.

SP1 Harvey (0.5)
SP2 Niese (5)
SP3 Wheeler (0.5)
SP4 Syndergaard (0.5)
SP5

That's $57.5M, not including Stanton's arbitration number, 2B, CF, bullpen, and bench.

This also preserves Wheeler, d'Arnaud, Syndergaard, Flores, Fulmer, Nimmo, DeGrom, Verrett, Mazzoni, Familia, etc.  The only major prospects dealt are Montero, Plawecki, and Mateo.

There's no way to know which way the organization will go, however I'm very confident that they will work to add at least two established major league hitters to the lineup and we'll forget all about Michael Bourn and Justin Upton.