By Mike Steffanos November 1, 2020
The Mets made a qualifying offer to pitcher Marcus Stroman today. If he accepts, he gets $18.9 million to stay here for one more year. If he rejects the offer and signs elsewhere, the Mets get a draft pick. This is a no-brainer for the Mets, who retain Stroman for a year at a fairly reasonable price if he accepts their offer.
Given the current climate, it might actually make sense for Stroman to accept the offer and reenter free agency after next season. The economic outlook will likely be a bit brighter. The Mets can't make a second qualifying offer to him, so there will be no loss of a draft pick for any team signing him then. Stroman has 10 days to accept or decline the offer, which gives him and his agent some time to feel out the market. If he does decline the offer and signs elsewhere, the Mets get draft pick compensation. That would come in handy to offset a loss of a pick if they sign a free agent who had a qualifying offer.
Dellin Betances also exercised his $6 million player option, which could be good for the Mets as long as he bounces back at least closer to what he was with the Yankees. If he continues to struggle to regain velocity, not so much. Brad Brach also exercised his $2 million option. He was good for the Mets in a small sample size at the end of 2019, then pretty bad in a small sample size this past season. $2 million would be life-changing for most of us, but it's chump change in MLB. If things play out the way I hope, Betances and Bach will have a good amount of competition for bullpen slots next season.
Now things start to get much more interesting. It might be a done deal, but I'll still breathe a sigh of relief when all of the i's are dotted and the t's are crossed and Steve Cohen officially takes over this team. That has obvious implications for the pursuit of free agents, but there are other things to watch for, too. The Mets will look at the players who become unrestricted free agents when teams declined their options and decide if they are interested in any of those players.
A complicating factor here is that there is no guarantee that there will be a DH in the National League in 2021. It would have to be negotiated with the players as it was this season. The players will want it, as it creates a starting job with all of the NL clubs. I assume the League will attempt to negotiate some sort of expanded playoffs for 2021 in exchange, but nothing is certain here until an agreement is reached. NL teams like the Mets are likely to base some of their offseason activity on what they see is the most likely outcome for the DH rule next season.
December 2 is the non-tender deadline. Teams will have to decide whether to offer a contract to pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players on their roster, i.e. all of the young players with less than six years of service time. If they don't, these players become unrestricted free agents. Teams will likely be cutting loose a record number of these young players this season, and this is a good place for a team like the Mets to deepen their roster. For what it's worth, there is somewhat of a consensus that the Mets will be more aggressive in deepening their 40-man roster than in pursuing top free agents.
I said Friday that I believe the most likely scenario is that the Mets sign one top free agent and devote the rest of their efforts to deepening out their roster. Honestly, though, it wouldn't shock me if they signed a couple of top guys or, conversely, they didn't sign any of them. I suspect Alderson and his team will put values on free agents they will pursue. If the bidding stays reasonable, they might snare a couple. If the price gets too high, they'll let them go.
The one guy that interests me the most is George Springer. I've read conflicting reports on how much longer he can remain a viable centerfielder. If the Mets evaluate him for at least a couple more seasons there, I think he'd be my #1 target in front of Realmuto. He's a better hitter than Realmuto. Springer's bat in the middle of the lineup would look mighty good, and he'd make them less lefty heavy. With Céspedes gone, the only impact right-handed bat is Alonso, provided he bounces back. Take this with a grain of salt, obviously, as I am the guy with a blog, not a front office job.
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4 comments:
Springer would be a solid acquisition, but this roster must fit together like a beautiful mosaic when all is said and done
What I think the Mets should do.
1. Extend Conforto
2. Sign Springer
3. Sign McCann
4. Stroman if he accepts qualifying offer or similar.
But by all means, the Mets should not try to fix every issue in one year. This is a 2 or 3 year project with smart draft picks and signings.
I'd focus on pitching and even though I am not sure he is worth it Realmulto as catcher. By far the best, a bit of a gamble at 30 but can hit and play defense.
Got to have pitching depth, so Walker, Porcello, Stroman if he takes a 1-2 year deal, and one other pitcher to be named after all the non tenders going on. NOT BAUER.
I like Springer in cf (really good player and a position of need) but he gets hurt a lot and will cost a ton. I'd maybe consider Bradley for cf.
The explore a trade for Lindor at SS. Top tier SS, switch hitter to help balance lineup.
Trade candidates: some combination of a pool of: Alonso, Rosario, Gimenez, Davis, Nimmo, Gsellman, Matz. I'd keep Smith at 1b, he's a better player than Alonso, better overall hitter and fielder.
And I think they should take a look at Hand as another reliever.
That still leaves 3b. Can Cano play 3b and put McNeil at 2b where he belongs? Can Mr. Cohen eat some of the 60 mil owed Cano and get back a prospect or two? He can still hit. Not sure. Lemahieu would be a good fit but costs too much with all the other FA's.
Lindor ss
McNeil 2b
Cano 3b
Smith 1b
Realmulto c
Conforto rf
Nimmo lf
Bradley cf
I couldn’t agree with you more about Springer. I feel you have to sign at least one of Spring or Realmuto. I honestly think they can get both.
So you sign Springer, then turn your attention to Catcher. I think this position we should strictly go best defensive player available at a cheaper cost. We have an a whole lot of offense and can sacrifice at one position to make the pitchers happy. So Molina or McCann. Or maybe trade for the last year of Salvador Perez?
Next I would sign 2 of either Morton, Tanaka, Walker or Paxton.
Next I would sign both Justin Turner and DiDi Gregoriloius (if we can’t trade for Lindor). Turner in a 2 year deal and Didi on a 3 year deal.
That way we can trade a JD, Rosario and Nimmo to bolster our farm system as best we can.
So Springer would be the only one with draft compensation.
Lineup would be
McNiel 2nd
Springer CF
Conforto RF
Dom Smith LF
Justin Turner 3B
Didi SS
Alonso 1B
Cano DH
McCann/Molina/ Salvador Perez C
DeGrom
Paxton/Tanaka
Walker/Morton
Peterson
Thomas Szapuki/ Thor in June
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