7/24/21

Tom Brennan - PETE ALONSO IS IMPRESSING, AND THIS IS HIS TIME OF YEAR

Pete Alonso, let's not forget, had a historic first season with the Mets, with 53 HRs and 120 RBIs in 161 games.  

This immediately followed 2018, in which he was a beast in AA, AAA and the AFL where, in 159 games, he had 46 HRs and 146 RBIs.  Huge.   

Seemed to me that after back-to-back seasons like that, with 99 HRs and 166 RBIs, that he would put up prodigious numbers every year.

Last year, though, in his shortened COVID 2020, he understandably scuffled almost the entire season.  He was hitting just .202 until the last several games, where a power-laden 10 for 20 closing surge boosted him to a respectable, if unsatisfying, .231.  

And despite his real 2020 struggles, he popped 16 HRs in 57 games, which had he played as many games as he did in 2019, would have projected out to about 45 HRs.

This season, he had to fight thru wacky April with its cancellations and frigidity and rain outs, just like everyone else on the Mets.  He still managed to hit .250 and drive in 12 in 72 April at bats while many regulars floundered, reducing his RBI opportunities.

In May, he was limited to just 60 games due to an injury that forced him to the IL, and in June, he hit rather weakly until June 19.  

Since June 19 this year, in 30 games through Wednesday, he has reawakened with a very solid .282/.342/.564, with 9 HRs and 19 ribbies.  I love that .282 part. Then, he added two homers and drove in all three runs in the Mets' shutout win (Tylor Megill for ROY, anyone?)

Interestingly, in 2017, in his first full year in the minors, Pete dealt with a broken hand (he also had one in the prior, inital pro year), scuffled like mad trying to get back to normal until virtually that same date, right around June 19, and then hit like heck the rest of the season.   

He was in fact hitting .160 after the first game of a double header that day, and sat at 2 HRs through his first 21 games.  

Second game, though, he had 2 hits including a 3 run shot which got him launched, as he hit well over .300 with tons of doubles and 16 HRs over his last 71 games that year.  That's when it became clear that Pete could be special.

One can only hope that there is something about summer officially starting that brings out the beast in big Pete for the rest of the season from that point on, just like it did in 2017.

But, in any respect, he seems to get better as seasons go on.  He got much better in 2017.  In 2018, the exception, he was special from start to finish. In 2019's record year, his average sagged a bit in the second half as pitchers adjusted to him, but the HRs kept flying out with great regularity. In 2020, the first 50 games stunk, which in a normal season would be about late May, but then he caught fire over the last several games (at which point, he was probably thinking, "can't we play 100 more games?  I want payback."

It is happening in 2021, too - he has adjusted after a sluggish start and the results are showing.  He now needs to start blasting at Citifield again soon, as he has been a far better 2021 hitter on the road than at home.

One very encouraging note is that his strikeouts are down.  Some guys seem to fan more and more as the years go by - not Pete.

In that 2019 rookie year, he fanned a very high but understandable 183 times in 161 games.  This year, just 70 in 83 games.  

A guy THIS STRONG making that much better contact?  Results should follow the rest of 2021 that will be impressive.

Sitting at 21 HRs and 56 RBIs in his first 84 games (he missed the 10 IL games), and with his mid-season pattern of getting in a groove, I see no reason why in the last 68 games, he cannot at least equal those HRs and RBIs.   I don't know if he sets goals, but I think he will want 21 HRs and 54 RBIs to get to nice, round numbers like 42 and 110.  

It should be mighty interesting to see how the mighty Alonso hits the rest of the way.  

Because, as I see it:

THIS POLAR BEAR LOVES THE SUMMER.


And…

MEGILL:

45 innings AA and above when called up.


Harvey, Jake, Thor, Matz, Wheeler…all about 200 AA/AAA innings.

Difference…the equivalent of about 26 six inning starts.

Lowest major league ERA of those 6 pitchers after 6 starts?

MEGILL, at 2.10.

Mets are 5-1 in his 6 starts, and should be 6-0.

He should be doing Lifesaver commercials.



2 comments:

RDS900 said...

It would be great to see him reach 42 hrs and over 100 rbis. Would be close to my pre season predictions.

Tom Brennan said...

Ray, he has a history of really rolling once he gets hot and the season progresses. Early in 2019, I upped my pre-season rookie estimate from 45 to 50….of course, the 45 # was predicated on them not keeping him in the minors for another few weeks at the start of 2019 to add a year of control. 45 was also predicated on his 2019 spring training, in which he hit .352/.387/.620. But he got all the way to 53. Remarkable.