The MLB trade deadline is another day closer, and speculation continues as to how the New York Mets might approach it. Of course, there never is any shortage of unnamed sources to be quoted and fuel speculation on what a team's deadline strategy might be, as was the case Monday with rumors the Mets are looking to make a "big splash" in new owner Steve Cohen's inaugural season writing the checks.
Cohen himself weighed in on the matter on Twitter Monday:
Let’s play GM again. Make a trade now and pay a big price or wait until closer to the deadline and pay a reasonable price ?
— Steven Cohen (@StevenACohen2) July 20, 2021
I found it interesting that Cohen chose to jump in on this topic. My immediate thought on the matter was, how much more expensive will a player be now than 9 days from now? I mean, seriously. If the Mets traded for a starting pitcher, even if they did it today, that would probably mean one more start between now and the deadline.
Don't get me wrong. I won't pretend there is no value in even one more Mets start from a competent starting pitcher. That would mean one less start from Jerad Eickhoff, Robert Stock, or someone else of that caliber.
With all due respect to Eickhoff, who was let down rather harshly by his defense in his last game, it would be awesome to have a more competent starting pitcher taking the hill for the team as they look to defend their small lead over the Phillies in the NL East. (Eickhoff was DFA'ed and Stock has a groin injury, so it remains to be seen if either one of them will show up in a Mets uniform again this season, anyway.)
Even a position player would only appear in a few more games for the club if they could convince another team to part with a player today. Really, the only reason that any potential trade piece would be more expensive now than at the deadline would be that the Mets would be buying out a trade partner's chance to listen to more offers for their asset as the deadline gets closer. With a deal that gets done on deadline day, you presumably only have to offer more than the next highest bidder.
Of course, what might constitute a "reasonable price" is subjective. There was a time when you could get a player heading into free agency by taking on his money and offering fairly modest prospects in return. But even as teams place more and more value on their prospects, reluctant to trade their best talent in return for rentals, trading teams have become more stubborn about holding onto a player and taking the compensation pick if they fail to get what they consider real value in a potential deal. This confluence of thinking on the part of buyers and sellers has led to sleepier trade deadlines in recent years.
In 2011, when the Mets were decidedly sellers at the trade deadline, they were able to ship Carlos Beltran to the Giants for Zack Wheeler. Beltran was excellent for San Francisco, slashing .323/.369/.551 in 44 games. It wasn't enough to keep the Giants from fading and finishing out of the playoffs, and Wheeler gave the Mets good value before Brodie Van Wagenen and Jeff Wilpon let him sign with the Division rival Phillies.
You don't see many deadline deals like that anymore, where a really well-regarded prospect like Wheeler gets moved for a rental player. The move was made by Brian Sabean, an executive with an old-school approach to that sort of deal that doesn't really exist anymore. And, in fairness, the Giants were able to capture World Series titles in 2012 and 2014, so the deal didn't exactly kill San Francisco. But still, that's the sort of deal that you just don't see these days.
As the Mets contemplate on what moves they should make at the deadline, I find it interesting that Baseball-Reference has dropped the Mets behind the Phillies and Braves in their playoff odds. Even when things seemed at their lowest, that feels a bit harsh to me. B-R only gives the Mets a 19.5% chance of making the postseason, predicting a .500 season for the New Yorkers.
Now I don't think the Mets front office is going to base their decisions on Baseball-Reference odds. But you could see how this season could really fall apart for the Mets if they can't get some luck with their starting pitching in the second half. On the other hand, if Jacob deGrom can figure out how to stay healthy and Carlos Carrasco can get onto the Major League mound next month, things can turn around for the Mets pretty quickly. I do think they need to chase starting pitching and bullpen help at the deadline, although I have no idea what sort of splash they will make doing so.
I still think it will take close to 90 wins to take this division, at least upper 80s. Sitting at 7 games over .500 after today's win, the Mets have a lot of work to do in the second half to get to that point. Making some sort of splashy deal will definitely be the easiest way to dramatically improve the club if the Mets are willing to pay the price.
1 comment:
Okay then.
Mets batters in yesterday's games were nothing short of sensational. Luis Guillorme hit one out on a jammed inside pitch, like it was nothin'. And Dominic Smith, grand slammer. Holy Cow! Everyone was present and everyone was slugging and fighting. I loved it. They got Marcus the run support that he deserves, and Marcus was sensational too. Team is back at the perfect right time!
This nonsense about Mets righty versus lefty number of batters. It's getting old. Yes, they have more left handed batters. However, what is the percentage of right hand pitchers to left handers in MLB? See what I mean here? But do not shake up the beautiful "karma" that this team has going on now again. We saw this in 2020. Outstanding.
It's currently four lefty batters versus three righty batters starting (Lindor is a switch hitter for the 8th batter). And the Mets have three right handed batters off the bench if needed, like Pillar, Peraza, and Villar (switch hitter) that easily could be starting on other teams.
Please leave this chemistry alone man, is my only advice here. The "karma" is back!
Q: What same one thing do these NY Mets normally do in this second half trade deadline scenario? A: Acquire players that don't usually make a big hill of beans difference. Not always, but sometimes let's say perhaps over many years. So-so trades don't get it.
Possible Solutions:
First thing that I might do, is bring up the big left-handed kid pitcher from AA Binghamton named Josh Walker. Give him the right time and place in games to test the waters and get his feet wet. Let's see what he has.
Josh's Binghamton stats are quite impressive looking.
Although I literally cannot find anywhere (online) his Draft or MiLB scouting report. Not even a worthwhile youtube video. Look at Tylor Megill for reasons why I suggest this here and now. Tylor's one of the most natural starting pitchers I have seen come up here from the minors in a long, long time. I instantly knew the first time that I saw him pitch that somewhere Thomas George Seaver is smiling.
Anyway...Catching lightning in a bottle it's called. Maybe twice even. Mets exec's will know more than I.
On trades...Be really "careful" may be a word for the wise. Karma thing.
Carlos Carrasco pitched 1.2 innings at Syracuse recently and gave up 5 runs or something, and the Mets sport writers and some fans as well would make you think that the world was caving in on their heads. NO. It is not! He hasn't pitched all year people. He got a rough baptism back, so what. Let the man ease himself back into being who he is. The sky is not falling people. I promise!
I'd love Craig Kimbrall here, but who wouldn't.
Can you imagine a Diaz and Kimbrall combo out of the pen with the setup relievers we already have here now?
But the Cubs 2021 biggest failure has been their starting pitching. That's what it will probably take to get Kimbrall in here. And the Mets do not have starting pitchers who they can afford to trade them for Kimbrall.
Personally, I still like the idea of Texas Rangers' RSP Kyle Gibson. A lot.
I've watched Kyle pitch and he "sort of" reminds me a little bit of Jacob deGrom. Similar mechanics, good success this season, good mound composure. But here again, Texas has almost no really decent starting pitching. It's older without the big stats.
Kyle here would be that insurance guy we sort of would like with solid experience behind him and having a career 2021 season as well.
But unless something like maybe a Franklyn Kilome and Mark Vientos trade package does the trick, this could be difficult for the Mets to pull off. Texas needs a youth infusion. We have that.
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