There continues to be far too much time being spent writing and reading stories about Jose Reyes. I’m guilty of that right now. So are you, reading this.
Sports writers, sports bloggers, and people like me that do both (wrigers?), all continue to debate whether the Mets should offer Reyes the kind of money the market currently demands. The fact is, there is no debate. This is all a product of economics and how much the Mets decide to spend in payroll to field their major league team.
The current poor economy has simply lowered the amount of profit a baseball team makes these days. More people stay home and watch the games on television. Taking your family of four to Citifield, parking, getting programs, a few souvenirs, decent tickets and a hot dog or two, almost demands a second mortgage. The money just isn’t there anymore, especially for a team that wins less than 80 games.
Writers like me can talk all days about people like Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler, but none of this is going to make the 2012 any better. And, you know what? That’s all the basic fan cares about.
50 selective Mets blogs like Mack’s Mets don’t add up to the traffic MetsBlog gets in one day. A thousand Mets fans a day bleed this stuff. Hundreds of thousands read a newspaper, click on one web site, and get on with their lives.
The Wilpon Mets, under the management of Omar Minaya had the economy going for them, but they also had ownership convinced that the success of the franchise should be based on back-end loaded contracts for high-end stars. It sure seemed to work in the beginning. 2004: 71 wins. 2005: boom… Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran... 83 wins. 2006: boom… Carlos Delgado, Paul LoDuca (.318), and Tom Glavine (15-7)… 97 wins and a pennant.
The debate on Reyes is simply a product of the amount of money the team will allocate to the 2012 season. They already have contracts for nine players, totaling $76.63 million. Sandy Alderson says the team will operate “around $100mil”. That leaves $23.37 mil for the rest of the 40-man squad. That’s around $750K per player.
Now, let’s say they pay Jose… oh, $18mil/yr.
You now have 10 players being paid $94.63mil.
This leaves you $5.27mil to be split up between 30 players, far below the minimal salary in the league.
Go ahead. Go back, read it again, and do the math. I’ll wait.
You can build a pretty decent team with a payroll of $100mil (just go ask the guys that played in the World Series this year). But, you can’t do it if you are paying nine players a total of $76.63 million dollars.
Now, let’s go back and we’ll estimate that the 2012 minimal salary in the majors is $500K. We’ll pay 14 players the minimal, pay the rest of the 40-man an average of $25K each, not promote a single one of them all year, and have no one hit the DL list.
That totals $7.375mil.
Add that to the $76.63mil currently under contract, and you have a 39-man total of $84mil.
This leaves you $16mil a year to offer Jose Reyes to play baseball in Flushing in the year 2012.
Any questions?
6 comments:
Aw shucks Mack, that stinks. I thought the Mets had Jose in their pocket already. Couple things...Think the payroll might be around 110 mill, which still doesnt help too much with Reyes, but it sure helps to field a team with a slightly better chance. Also, why the hell did Alderson keep Reyes at the trade deadline, if he wasnt going to pony up the cash to sign him? I think a more major league ready prospect would've helped this team to respectability a little quicker then two extra draft picks? Should have traded him in June and damn the backlash. Man, I wish the Wilpons would drop the payroll only about 25 million, which would put it at about 120 mill. I wouldn't consider it reverting to their old ways, knowing Alderson would be a little more conscious of what he was buying then Minaya was, and with the minor league system on the verge of also paying off, Sandy really wouldn't have to go overboard to field as winner for years to come. With what they have, the forty million they would spend this offseason could really push this team over the hump. Too bad the Wilpons cant roll the dice with a little more cash. Find a way to bankroll the offseason, sign Reyes, sign one of the better pitchers like a Mark Berle, sign Grady Sizemore, and then possibly Lidge or Nathan. Yes, theres definatly a lot of gamble in those moves, but with the fences coming in, I think you can expect a lot more production out of Wright and Bay which would help an already pretty decent offense. The pitching, in my view would suffice with the capable Dickey and Gee(hopefully a healthy Santana), at least until the break, where some help could be coming via the system. Pipe dreams, pipe dreams, pipe dreams
Jose was hurt and his trade value was close to nil.
Even if you raise it to 110mil, you still have to pay all the players on the 9 minor league teams, plus DL, plus promotions.
In long terms, the Mets will be better off without both Reyes and Wright.
IMO
Well put, Mack! I was on the fence about Jose (and David for that matter) for a while this year. If you can remove the emotions from the equation, it is one of two choices; pay Jose and hope the rest of the same players improve, or let Jose go, reap the draft picks and use the cash for lower impact/wider reaching improvements.
Just a thought but why wouldn't the mets resign Jose, and shop David. A 3rd baseman of David's caliber is more easily replaceable that a shortstop of Jose's caliber. You could put Murphy at 3rd (his natural position) and place Tejada at 2nd until Havens is ready. This gives you much better up the middle defense (which the mets were awful at last year) while only losing the difference in production from Wright to Murphy. Plus you net whatever prospects Wright would get. Possibly Pomeranz from the Rockies (an idea that has been thrown around on this site a lot). I know its a pipe dream but its just a thought.
it's a good thought...
Thanks for laying out the math on this Mack.
As far as his value at the deadline, I'll trust that you have more knowledge on that...I just thought that since he came back and played in July that a team would trade for him, knowing the season he was having and what he could do for someone's playoff push.
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